Try the model
ACU

Abilene Christian 14 at New Mexico 38

UNM
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · University Stadium (NM)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:57 · Simon Laryea punt for 49 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for no gain to the NMex 6 Chris Davis Jr. fumbled, forced by Tracy James, recovered by AblCh Bryce Baccarini
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior+18.2Home team on offense+28.8Score differential+20.1Garbage-time factor+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.4Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:54: Dallas Sealey pass complete to Carl Whitley for 36 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK) — ACU win probability +2.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:20: Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +0.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:04: Daryl Chestnut run for 54 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +3.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:40: Jason Sanders 25 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:57: Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jay Griffin Iv for 37 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ACU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UNM 4th & 1 at ACU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:50ACU 4th & 7 at UNM 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:42ACU 4th & 5 at ACU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:53UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:06ACU 4th & 6 at ACU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:37UNM 4th & 7 at ACU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ACU 4th & 28 at ACU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:40UNM 4th & 7 at ACU 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:40ACU 4th & 10 at ACU 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:57UNM 4th & 6 at ACU 37, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:57ACU 4th & 1 at ACU 34, down 24
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:06ACU 4th & 5 at UNM 5, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:30ACU 4th & 22 at UNM 42, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ACU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:54ACU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:28UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:20UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:04UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:57UNM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:06UNM Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:14ACU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 78 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
97.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+15
97.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 15 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
97.6%
Daryl Chestnut run for 2 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+19
97.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 19 yds to the AblCh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
97.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+27
97.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 27 yds to the AblCh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
97.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the AblCh 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
97.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the AblCh 3Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
97.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the AblCh 1Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.6%
Richard McQuarley run for no gain to the AblCh 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 2TD
16 plays · 99 yds · 5:463% → 6%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
96.8%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the AblCh 3Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
96.8%
De'Andre Brown run for 3 yds to the AblCh 6Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+5
96.8%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Josh Fink for 5 yds to the AblCh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
96.8%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to DeShun Qualls for no gain to the AblCh 11Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
96.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Jacob Girgle) to the AblCh 16Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+5
96.8%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Justin Miller for 5 yds to the AblCh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
96.8%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 8 yds to the AblCh 29Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+3
96.7%
Dallas Sealey run for 3 yds to the AblCh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
96.7%
Justin Miller run for 11 yds to the AblCh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
96.7%
Dallas Sealey run for 6 yds to the AblCh 49Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
96.7%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to DeShun Qualls for 5 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.7%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Carl WhitleySimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
96.7%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Troy GrantSimilar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+10
96.7%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Carl Whitley for 10 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.7%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Justin MillerSimilar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
94.5%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Carl Whitley for 36 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:2095% → 95%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+27
94.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 27 yds to the AblCh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
95.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 9 yds to the AblCh 35 for a 1ST down ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, personal foul (Bolu Onifade) to the AblCh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
95.1%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 21Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+17
95.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 17 yds to the AblCh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.4%
Daryl Chestnut run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:325% → 6%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
94.8%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to DeShun Qualls for 7 yds to the AblCh 24Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+2
94.8%
Tracy James run for 2 yds to the AblCh 26Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
94.8%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to DeShun Qualls for 2 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
94.4%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to De'Andre Brown for 6 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+29
94.2%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Kalin Sadler for 29 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
94.1%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Justin MillerSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
94.1%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Tracy JamesSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+3
94.2%
Dallas Sealey run for 3 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+51
93.6%
Nik Grau 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:3094% → 95%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+47
94.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 47 yds to the AblCh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
94.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 12 yds to the AblCh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
94.5%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, personal foul (Jeremiah Chambers) to the AblCh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 1:335% → 5%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
94.8%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to DeShun Qualls for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 16Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 11
OWN 16
-5
94.9%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (Anietie Etuk) to the AblCh 11Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 16
OWN 11
+9
94.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Carl Whitley for 9 yds to the AblCh 20Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+10
95.0%
Dallas Sealey run for 10 yds to the AblCh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
94.8%
Justin Miller run for 2 yds to the AblCh 32Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
94.7%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Justin Miller for 3 yds to the AblCh 35Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
94.8%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Justin Miller, broken up by Jacob GirgleSimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
95.0%
Simon Laryea punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+42
94.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Q' Drennan for 42 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
95.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Aaron Jenkins) to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 15
OWN 43
-3
94.9%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Jeremiah Chambers for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 40Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 18
OWN 40
+1
94.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 17
OWN 41
+6
94.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Daryl Chestnut for 6 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
94.5%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
94.0%
Tracy James run for no gain to the AblCh 16Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
94.1%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for no gain to the AblCh 16Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+9
94.3%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 9 yds to the AblCh 25Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 1
OWN 25
-5
94.3%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, FOR (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 20Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
94.4%
Simon Laryea punt for 69 yds, downed at the NMex 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:5994% → 93%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
93.5%
Romell Jordan run for 7 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+3
93.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Tyrone Owens for 3 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
93.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 13 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
93.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 9 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+13
93.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 13 yds to the AblCh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
93.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Richard McQuarley for 3 yds to the AblCh 41Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
93.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
93.4%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Chris Davis Jr.Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 7
OPP 41
-4
93.0%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Jeremiah Chambers and Bryson Gates for a loss of 4 yards to the AblCh 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 10INT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:208% → 7%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
92.2%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (Anietie Etuk) to the AblCh 40Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
92.6%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Josh FinkSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+8
92.7%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to DeShun Qualls for 8 yds to the AblCh 48Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+17
92.9%
Dallas Sealey pass intercepted Jacob Girgle return for 17 yds to the AblCh 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
93.6%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Bryson Gates for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 12PUNT
15 plays · 23 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.3%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to DeShun Qualls for 5 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
92.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to DeShun Qualls for 9 yds to the AblCh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
91.8%
Justin Miller run for 4 yds to the AblCh 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-6
91.5%
De'Andre Brown run for a loss of 6 yards to the AblCh 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 37
0
92.5%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Carl Whitley, broken up by Jalin BurrellSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 37
+15
92.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, roughing the kicker (15 Yards) to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
91.3%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to DeShun QuallsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
91.5%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Kalin Sadler for 5 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+4
91.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Austin Ocasio) to the NMex 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+5
91.3%
Tracy James run for 5 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
90.9%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Troy Grant, broken up by D'Angelo RossSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-26
90.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 26 yards to the AblCh 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AblCh De'Andre BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 36
OWN 40
+8
92.4%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Justin Miller for 8 yds to the AblCh 48Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 28
OWN 48
0
92.7%
Simon Laryea punt for 27 yds, downed at the NMex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2592% → 96%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.8%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 24Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
91.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jay Griffin Iv for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
91.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 13 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
92.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
92.5%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
92.2%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
92.5%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Q' DrennanSimilar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+54
95.9%
Daryl Chestnut run for 54 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.7%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 12 yds to the AblCh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
94.4%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Chase Cokley for 2 yds to the AblCh 39Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
94.3%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Chase CokleySimilar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-18
94.5%
Dallas Sealey sacked by Jake Rothschiller for a loss of 18 yards to the AblCh 20 Dallas Sealey fumbled, recovered by NMex Alex Hart , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15FG
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:0396% → 97%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
96.1%
Romell Jordan run for 14 yds to the AblCh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
96.1%
Richard McQuarley run for a loss of 3 yards to the AblCh 9Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
96.1%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the AblCh 7Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.9%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
97.0%
Jason Sanders 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 7 yds to the AblCh 32Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
96.7%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Carl Whitley for 4 yds to the AblCh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
96.7%
Tracy James run for 12 yds to the AblCh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.7%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Josh FinkSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
96.7%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Carl Whitley, broken up by Jalin BurrellSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
96.8%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Troy GrantSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
97.0%
Simon Laryea punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:3897% → 99%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+44
97.2%
Romell Jordan run for 44 yds to the AblCh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
97.5%
Daryl Chestnut run for 4 yds to the AblCh 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
97.5%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
97.4%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Jay Griffin Iv, broken up by Bryson GatesSimilar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+37
99.2%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jay Griffin Iv for 37 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
De'Andre Brown run for no gain to the AblCh 25Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.2%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to DeShun Qualls for 2 yds to the AblCh 27Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.2%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 7 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.2%
Simon Laryea punt for 49 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for no gain to the NMex 6 Chris Davis Jr. fumbled, forced by Tracy James, recovered by AblCh Bryce BaccariniSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 19INT TD
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:011% → 0%
Q4 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.1%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Carl WhitleySimilar
Q4 12:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.1%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to De'Andre Brown for 1 yd to the NMex 5Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.1%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Justin Miller, broken up by Jalin BurrellSimilar
Q4 11:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+91
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass intercepted for a TD Jake Rothschiller return for 91 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 20PUNT
15 plays · 33 yds · 4:360% → 0%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
De'Andre Brown run for no gain to the AblCh 25Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 6 yds to the AblCh 31Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
100.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Josh Fink for 7 yds to the AblCh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Dallas Sealey run for no gain to the AblCh 38Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
100.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to De'Andre Brown for 11 yds to the AblCh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
100.0%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to De'Andre BrownSimilar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
100.0%
Justin Miller run for 9 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+12
100.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Josh Fink for 12 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-13
100.0%
Dallas Sealey sacked by Rayshawn Boyce for a loss of 13 yards to the NMex 43Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 23
OPP 43
+1
100.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to De'Andre Brown for 1 yd to the NMex 42Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 22
OPP 42
0
100.0%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Carl WhitleySimilar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 22
OPP 42
0
100.0%
Simon Laryea punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21FUMBLE
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
100.0%
Daevon Vigilant run for 1 yd to the NMex 10Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+10
100.0%
Kentrail Moran run for 10 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
100.0%
Daevon Vigilant run for 2 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Kentrail Moran run for no gain to the NMex 22Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
100.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 9 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
100.0%
Daevon Vigilant run for 4 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
100.0%
Kentrail Moran run for 3 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-6
100.0%
Daevon Vigilant run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 34 Daevon Vigilant fumbled, recovered by AblCh Makoni PoleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:370% → 0%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
100.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Hunter Lees for no gain to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.6%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Hunter Lees for 34 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:04
Daryl Chestnut run for 54 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q1 3:54
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Carl Whitley for 36 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK)
-2.2
TD · Q4 13:57
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jay Griffin Iv for 37 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com