Abilene Christian
- SRS
- −20.9 (#172)
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2023
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Abilene Christian allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Abilene Christian.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Abilene Christian's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut one accounts for 0.01 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at UNTQ2 0:00 4th & 3 at UNT 37, down 17Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it1.4 pts
- at TA&MQ3 8:15 4th & 4 at TA&M 48, down 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.2 pts
- at UNTQ4 14:40 4th & 3 at ACU 43, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.1 pts
- at TA&MQ1 4:29 4th & 2 at ACU 45, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.1 pts
- at UNTQ2 9:21 4th & 4 at ACU 44, down 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at TA&MQ2 13:31 4th & 8 at TA&M 37, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at TA&MQ2 10:03 4th & 3 at ACU 14, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (19)
- AgreedQ1 11:324th & 7 at ACU 16, tied, Punted
- AgreedQ1 6:564th & 1 at ACU 34, down 7, Went for it
- AgreedQ1 3:574th & 5 at ACU 30, down 10, Punted
- AgreedQ2 14:424th & 8 at ACU 27, down 17, Punted
- Close callQ2 9:214th & 4 at ACU 44, down 24, Punted
- 1.4 ptsQ2 0:004th & 3 at UNT 37, down 17, Kicked a field goal
- Close callQ4 14:404th & 3 at ACU 43, down 21, Punted
- AgreedQ4 11:424th & 6 at ACU 37, down 21, Punted
- AgreedQ1 13:404th & 10 at ACU 31, tied, Punted
- AgreedQ1 8:384th & 5 at ACU 32, tied, Punted
- Close callQ1 4:294th & 2 at ACU 45, tied, Punted
- Close callQ2 13:314th & 8 at TA&M 37, tied, Kicked a field goal
- Close callQ2 10:034th & 3 at ACU 14, tied, Punted
- AgreedQ2 7:034th & 6 at ACU 29, down 3, Punted
- AgreedQ2 1:574th & 10 at ACU 46, down 10, Punted
- Close callQ3 8:154th & 4 at TA&M 48, down 17, Punted
- AgreedQ4 14:064th & 11 at TA&M 23, down 17, Kicked a field goal
- AgreedQ4 11:004th & 12 at ACU 41, down 14, Punted
- AgreedQ4 2:294th & 6 at ACU 30, down 21, Punted
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2023
Expected wins adds up Abilene Christian's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2023
Every game starts at Abilene Christian's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.22
- Timeouts−0.01
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.08
Game by game
- UNTL 31-45 at UNT15% → 1%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −20, Timeouts −1
- TA&ML 10-38 at TA&M1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −3
Points of win probability, from Abilene Christian's side.
Closest call
ACU 38-35 TROY (2014) - Abilene Christian dropped to a 9.3% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2023
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Abilene Christian's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2023
The largest single-play change in Abilene Christian's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Abilene Christian's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Abilene Christian's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Abilene Christian's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Abilene Christian's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.