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ACU

Abilene Christian 10 at Colorado State 38

CSU
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:45 · Tracy James run for no gain to the ColSt 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior+44.1Home team on offense+3.5Score differential+1.0Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:39: Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 6 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q3 13:38: TEAM punt blocked by Bryson Gates blocked by Bryson Gates Erik Huhn return for 16 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK) — ACU win probability +2.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:12: Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 19 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:14: Nik Grau 29 yd FG GOOD — ACU win probability +1.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:07: Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 22 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ACU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ACU 4th & 5 at ACU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:39ACU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:55CSU 4th & 4 at ACU 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:28ACU 4th & 6 at ACU 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CSU 4th & 2 at ACU 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:45ACU 4th & 1 at CSU 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:39ACU 4th & 10 at ACU 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:38CSU 4th & 12 at CSU 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:29CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:39ACU 4th & 8 at ACU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:14ACU 4th & 10 at CSU 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ACU 4th & 6 at CSU 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:52CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:22ACU 4th & 6 at CSU 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:40ACU 4th & 17 at CSU 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:39CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:39CSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:12CSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:07CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:40CSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ACUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.2%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 3 yds to the AblCh 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.2%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.2%
Dallas Sealey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+17
99.2%
Simon Laryea punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 35 , Olabisi Johnson returns for 17 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:5399% → 99%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 9 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
99.1%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
99.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 17 yds to the AblCh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
99.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 9 yds to the AblCh 25Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+8
99.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the AblCh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
99.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 15 yds to the AblCh 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 41 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.0%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 20Similar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Dallas Sealey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-1
99.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Qua'Shawn Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 19Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+16
99.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Carl Whitley for 16 yds to the AblCh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.0%
Tracy James run for 6 yds to the AblCh 41Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+16
99.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to De'Andre Brown for 16 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.0%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-1
99.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+8
99.0%
Dallas Sealey run for 8 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
99.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Qua'Shawn Washington for no gain to the ColSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:3899% → 99%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Detrich ClarkSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
98.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 4 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+8
98.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 8 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.7%
Nick Stevens run for no gain to the ColSt 46Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+29
98.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 29 yds to the AblCh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
98.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the AblCh 19Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+11
98.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 11 yds to the AblCh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
98.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 4 yds to the AblCh 4Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup, broken up by Bolu OnifadeSimilar
Q1 3:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
98.5%
Wyatt Bryan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 2:222% → 2%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
98.4%
D. Sealey pass complete to C. Whitley for 16 yards to the ACU35 (HAWKINS, Anthon), PENALTY ACU personal foul (B. Weber) 10 yards to the ACU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 20
OWN 9
+2
98.4%
Dallas Sealey run for 2 yds to the AblCh 11Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 18
OWN 11
+14
98.4%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 14 yds to the AblCh 25Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+10
98.4%
D. Sealey pass incomplete to T. Grant, PENALTY CSU holding (HAWKINS, Anthon) 10 yards to the ACU35, 1ST DOWN ACU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.4%
Tracy James run for 4 yds to the AblCh 39Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
98.4%
Dallas Sealey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Simon Laryea punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:1698% → 98%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
98.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 4 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+8
98.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
50
0
98.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Izzy MatthewsSimilar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 10
50
+14
98.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 14 yds to the AblCh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
98.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
98.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 2 yds to the AblCh 28Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 28
0
98.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Detrich ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 71 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
98.1%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to De'Andre Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 26Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 12
OWN 26
-3
98.1%
De'Andre Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the AblCh 23Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+31
98.1%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Justin Miller for 31 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+41
97.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to DeShun Qualls for 41 yds to the ColSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
97.9%
Tracy James run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 7Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
97.9%
Dallas Sealey run for 5 yds to the ColSt 2Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.9%
Tracy James run for 1 yd to the ColSt 1Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.0%
Tracy James run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 99 yds · 5:5198% → 99%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
97.5%
Rashaad Boddie run for 1 yd to the ColSt 2Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+1
97.5%
Rashaad Boddie run for 1 yd to the ColSt 3Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+12
97.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 12 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
97.5%
Rashaad Boddie run for 8 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 2
OWN 23
-10
97.6%
BODDIE, R. rush for 4 yards to the CSU27 (D. Douglass), PENALTY CSU holding (MOXLEY, T.) 10 yards to the CSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+10
97.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 10 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+10
97.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 10 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST down ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Brandon RichmondSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+26
97.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 26 yds to the AblCh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
97.7%
Rashaad Boddie run for 4 yds to the AblCh 37Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-11
97.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Cameron Butler for 4 yds to the AblCh 33 COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the AblCh 48Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+5
97.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the AblCh 43Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+37
97.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 37 yds to the AblCh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 6 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
98.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to DeShun Qualls for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 34Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+1
98.1%
De'Andre Brown run for 1 yd to the AblCh 35Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
98.1%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Troy Grant, broken up by Shun JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
98.1%
Simon Laryea punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 63 yds · 0:4698% → 99%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup, broken up by Cyd CalvinSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+20
98.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 20 yds to the AblCh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+41
98.4%
Nick Stevens run for 41 yds to the AblCh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
98.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the AblCh 5 Dalyn Dawkins fumbled, forced by Dylan Douglass, recovered by AblCh Brandon RichmondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 11INT
11 plays · 47 yds · 1:082% → 2%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
98.0%
Tracy James run for 4 yds to the AblCh 9Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+6
98.1%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 6 yds to the AblCh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
98.0%
Dallas Sealey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
98.0%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Justin MillerSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+12
98.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Chase Cokley for 12 yds to the AblCh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
97.9%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to DeShun QuallsSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
98.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 2 yds to the AblCh 29Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+23
98.7%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Josh Fink for 8 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal use of hands (Ellison Hubbard) to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
98.5%
Dallas Sealey pass intercepted Jamal Hicks return for no gain to the ColSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT TD
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:2298% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 13 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
98.0%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
97.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
97.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup, broken up by Bolu OnifadeSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+16
95.7%
TEAM punt blocked by Bryson Gates blocked by Bryson Gates Erik Huhn return for 16 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn Dawkins, broken up by Daytrieon DeanSimilar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
95.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Detrich ClarkSimilar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 51 yds, downed at the AblCh 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
95.9%
T. James rush for 13 yards to the ACU32 (FOGAL, J.), PENALTY ACU holding (B. Melde) 9 yards to the ACU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+7
95.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Justin Miller for 7 yds to the AblCh 17Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+2
95.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Justin Miller for 2 yds to the AblCh 19Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+2
96.1%
Dallas Sealey run for 2 yds to the AblCh 21Similar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
96.2%
Simon Laryea punt for 47 yds, downed at the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15INT
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:0696% → 96%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
95.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 9 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+22
95.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the AblCh 48 for a 1ST down ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, illegal use of hands (Cole Burgess) to the AblCh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
96.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 16 yds to the AblCh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-13
96.3%
STEVENS, N. pass complete to GALLUP, M. for 13 yards to the ACU8 (J. Mack), PENALTY CSU illegal block (JOHNSON, O.) 13 yards to the ACU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 23
OPP 34
+13
96.2%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Gavin Burford return for 13 yds to the AblCh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
95.6%
DeShun Qualls pass intercepted Jamal Hicks return for 11 yds to the AblCh 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:3596% → 98%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
96.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the AblCh 44Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+16
96.1%
Detrich Clark run for 16 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
96.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 11 yds to the AblCh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
96.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 3 yds to the AblCh 14Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-5
96.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the AblCh 19Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+19
98.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 19 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:582% → 4%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.8%
De'Andre Brown run for 10 yds to the AblCh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
97.7%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to De'Andre Brown for 14 yds to the AblCh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+39
97.6%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to DeShun Qualls for 39 yds to the ColSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
97.3%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Troy GrantSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
97.3%
Dallas Sealey run for no gain to the ColSt 12Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
97.6%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Cody EnnisSimilar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
96.5%
Nik Grau 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0797% → 99%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
97.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 35 yds to the AblCh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
97.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the AblCh 38Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+16
97.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 16 yds to the AblCh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.5%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the AblCh 22Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 22 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.2%
Dallas Sealey run for 1 yd to the AblCh 26Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
99.2%
De'Andre Brown run for 8 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.1%
Dallas Sealey run for 1 yd to the AblCh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.1%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 13 yds to the AblCh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Josh Fink, broken up by Josh WatsonSimilar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Josh FinkSimilar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.1%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Chase Cokley for 4 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
99.3%
Simon Laryea punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
99.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 15 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
99.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 13 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-10
99.4%
MATTHEWS, I. rush for 4 yards to the 50 yardline (Q. Dunn;C. Smith), PENALTY CSU holding (BENNETT, J.) 10 yards to the CSU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+3
99.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+4
99.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 4 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.4%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 9 yds to the AblCh 29Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+22
99.4%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to De'Andre Brown for 22 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
99.4%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Tracy James for a loss of 4 yards to the AblCh 47Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+8
99.4%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Chase Cokley for 8 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Dallas Sealey run for no gain to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Troy GrantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
99.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 18 yds to the AblCh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
99.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 7 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+11
99.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 11 yds to the AblCh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
99.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 20Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+7
99.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 7 yds to the AblCh 13Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+11
99.5%
STEVENS, N. pass incomplete to JACKSON, W., PENALTY ACU pass interference (A. Davis) 11 yards to the ACU2, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 24PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Qua'Shawn Washington run for 2 yds to the AblCh 27Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
100.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Chase Cokley for 13 yds to the AblCh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
100.0%
Qua'Shawn Washington run for 5 yds to the AblCh 45Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Kalin SadlerSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+5
100.0%
S. Laryea punt 50 yards to the CSU5, AWUNGANYI, R. return to the CSU5, fumble by AWUNGANYI, R. recovered by CSU Team at CSU6, PENALTY CSU roughing the kicker 5 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN ACU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
50
+3
100.0%
Qua'Shawn Washington run for 3 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+7
100.0%
Kalin Sadler run for 7 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
100.0%
Qua'Shawn Washington run for 2 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-9
100.0%
Luke Anthony sacked by Trey Sutton for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 17
OPP 47
0
100.0%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
100.0%
Simon Laryea punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
100.0%
Marcus McElroy run for 9 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 1
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Marcus McElroy run for no gain to the ColSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q3 13:38
TEAM punt blocked by Bryson Gates blocked by Bryson Gates Erik Huhn return for 16 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q3 6:12
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 19 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q3 2:07
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 22 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com