Villanova

Drives vs. expectation, 2015

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Villanova allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.

Game by game

1. L
   CONN

Bars above the line: better than expected for Villanova.

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Villanova's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at CONNQ3 12:57 4th & 3 at VILL 47, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
2. at CONNQ2 10:03 4th & 5 at CONN 7, down 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2015

Expected wins adds up Villanova's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   CONN

What moved it, 2015

Every game starts at Villanova's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.27
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Timeouts−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.05

Game by game

• CONNL 15-20 at CONN30% → 7%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −22: Scoreboard −27, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Villanova's side.

Closest call

VILL 19-17 TEM (2018) - Villanova dropped to a 13.4% win probability before pulling it out.