Southern Utah
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2018
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Southern Utah allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Southern Utah.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Southern Utah's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at ORSTQ2 15:00 4th & 20 at ORST 36, down 17Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts
- at ORSTQ4 11:02 4th & 9 at ORST 45, down 22Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
Every call this season (22)
- Q1 11:444th & 3 at SUU 32, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 7:144th & 5 at SUU 30, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 4:404th & 1 at ORST 41, down 17 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 15:004th & 20 at ORST 36, down 17 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 10:464th & 11 at SUU 24, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 8:154th & 9 at SUU 26, down 31 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:324th & 1 at SUU 37, down 31 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 11:164th & 6 at ORST 18, down 34 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 2:254th & 1 at ORST 27, down 25 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 12:044th & 11 at ORST 21, down 25 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 11:024th & 9 at ORST 45, down 22 · Went for itClose call
- Q1 11:074th & 8 at ARIZ 16, tied · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q1 9:424th & 8 at SUU 27, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 14:564th & 8 at ARIZ 16, down 7 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 14:424th & 1 at SUU 34, down 11 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 10:384th & 1 at ARIZ 29, down 11 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 12:564th & 10 at SUU 25, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 10:174th & 7 at SUU 28, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 8:144th & 2 at ARIZ 2, down 24 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 15:004th & 4 at ARIZ 39, down 31 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 15:004th & 1 at ARIZ 9, down 31 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 8:514th & 1 at ARIZ 25, down 38 · Went for itAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
- at ORSTQ3 6:45 Touchdown, down 25 before the tryWent for two; the numbers favored kicking (close call)<0.1 pts
- at ORSTQ4 3:34 Touchdown, down 23 before the tryKicked; the numbers favored going for two (close call)<0.1 pts
- at ARIZQ4 4:57 Touchdown, down 32 before the tryKicked; the numbers favored going for two (close call)<0.1 pts
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2018
Expected wins adds up Southern Utah's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2018
Every game starts at Southern Utah's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.29
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.06
Game by game
- ORSTL 25-48 at ORST19% → 0%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −22
- ARIZL 31-62 at ARIZ4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
Points of win probability, from Southern Utah's side.
Closest call
SUU 27-24 UTEP (2024) - Southern Utah dropped to a 18.0% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2018
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Southern Utah's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2018
The largest single-play change in Southern Utah's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Southern Utah's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Southern Utah's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Southern Utah's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Southern Utah's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.