Northwestern State
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2015
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Northwestern State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Northwestern State.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Northwestern State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut one accounts for 0.01 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at ULQ3 15:00 4th & 16 at UL 35, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal1.5 pts
- at ULQ2 0:07 4th & 4 at UL 4, down 20Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.5 pts
- at ULQ4 7:26 4th & 6 at UL 37, down 27Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)0.2 pts
- at MSSTQ2 2:27 4th & 3 at MSST 9, down 24Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.1 pts
- at MSSTQ1 13:21 4th & 10 at MSST 12, down 6Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)0.1 pts
- at ULQ1 13:01 4th & 4 at midfield, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.1 pts
- at MSSTQ2 10:09 4th & 6 at MSST 35, down 20Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.1 pts
- at MSSTQ4 9:07 4th & 2 at NWST 36, down 42Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (20)
- Close callQ1 13:014th & 4 at midfield, down 7, Punted
- AgreedQ1 9:074th & 2 at UL 45, down 14, Went for it
- AgreedQ1 9:074th & 13 at UL 44, down 14, Punted
- AgreedQ2 2:324th & 24 at NWST 4, down 13, Punted
- Close callQ2 0:074th & 4 at UL 4, down 20, Kicked a field goal
- AgreedQ3 15:004th & 2 at NWST 45, down 17, Went for it
- 1.5 ptsQ3 15:004th & 16 at UL 35, down 17, Went for it
- Close callQ4 7:264th & 6 at UL 37, down 27, Went for it
- Close callQ1 13:214th & 10 at MSST 12, down 6, Went for it
- AgreedQ1 3:264th & 20 at NWST 11, down 13, Punted
- AgreedQ2 15:004th & 12 at NWST 23, down 20, Punted
- AgreedQ2 12:574th & 9 at NWST 29, down 20, Punted
- Close callQ2 10:094th & 6 at MSST 35, down 20, Kicked a field goal
- Close callQ2 2:274th & 3 at MSST 9, down 24, Kicked a field goal
- AgreedQ3 14:474th & 1 at MSST 37, down 28, Went for it
- AgreedQ3 14:474th & 1 at MSST 26, down 28, Went for it
- AgreedQ3 4:014th & 12 at NWST 39, down 28, Punted
- AgreedQ4 15:004th & 8 at NWST 17, down 35, Punted
- AgreedQ4 12:124th & 17 at NWST 18, down 42, Punted
- Close callQ4 9:074th & 2 at NWST 36, down 42, Punted
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2015
Expected wins adds up Northwestern State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2015
Every game starts at Northwestern State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.28
- Timeouts−0.01
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.03
Game by game
- ULL 17-44 at UL26% → 0%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −27, Timeouts −1
- MSSTL 13-62 at MSST1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −1
Points of win probability, from Northwestern State's side.
Closest call
NWST 30-27 LT (2014) - Northwestern State dropped to a 4.7% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2015
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Northwestern State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2015
The largest single-play change in Northwestern State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Northwestern State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Northwestern State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Northwestern State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Northwestern State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.