Try the model
NWST

Northwestern State 13 at Mississippi State 62

MSST
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadNWST aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreNWST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:48 · Matthew Flores run for 2 yds to the NWSt 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:07: Aeris Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:39: Gabe Myles run for 6 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:56: Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 6 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:59: De'Mard Llorens run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Moore KICK) — MSST win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NWST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:02: Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NWST made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 13:21NWST 4th & 10 at MSST 12, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:49MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:26NWST 4th & 20 at NWST 11, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NWST 4th & 12 at NWST 23, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:57NWST 4th & 9 at NWST 29, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:09NWST 4th & 6 at MSST 35, down 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:27NWST 4th & 3 at MSST 9, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:47NWST 4th & 1 at MSST 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:47NWST 4th & 1 at MSST 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:01NWST 4th & 12 at NWST 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00NWST 4th & 8 at NWST 17, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:12NWST 4th & 17 at NWST 18, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:34MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 39, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:07NWST 4th & 2 at NWST 36, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NWST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:21MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:42MSST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:07MSST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:39MSST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:56MSST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:59NWST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:02MSST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:26MSST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:12MSST Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:48MSST Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3999% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for 13 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for 7 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+1
99.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 1 yd to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
99.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the NWSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
99.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 49 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 58 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.3%
De'Mard Llorens run for 3 yds to the NWSt 28Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
99.3%
J.D. Almond run for 19 yds to the NWSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
99.3%
Daniel Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the NWSt 43Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+12
99.3%
Daniel Taylor run for 12 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
99.3%
J.D. Almond run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.3%
Chris Jones run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+24
99.3%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Shakeir Ryan for 24 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.3%
Daniel Taylor run for 2 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-2
99.3%
Daniel Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 12Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
99.3%
J.D. Almond pass incomplete to De'Mard LlorensSimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 10
OPP 12
-5
99.3%
Tuff McClain run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:4699% → 99%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
99.0%
Dak Prescott run for 9 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 1
OWN 26
0
99.0%
Ashton Shumpert run for no gain to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
99.0%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
99.0%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+2
99.0%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+3
98.9%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
98.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 21 yds to the NWSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
98.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 19 yds to the NWSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 17 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
99.0%
De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the NWSt 22Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-11
99.0%
Almond, J.D. pass incomplete to Eagan, Ed, PENALTY NWST illegal block (Llorens, De'Mar) 11 yards to the NWST11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+1
99.0%
J.D. Almond run for 1 yd to the NWSt 12Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 19
OWN 12
-1
99.0%
Chris Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 11Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 20
OWN 11
+15
99.0%
Andy Wickman punt for 37 yds , Fred Ross returns for 15 yds to the NWSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
99.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yds to the NWSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
99.0%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the NWSt 13Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 2
OPP 13
-5
99.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 18Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+17
99.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 17 yds to the NWSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:071% → 1%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.2%
Daniel Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
99.3%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Daniel Taylor for 4 yds to the NWSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-3
99.3%
J.D. Almond sacked by Beniquez Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+47
99.3%
Andy Wickman punt for 47 yds , Fred Ross returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+48
99.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 48 yds to the NWSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
99.3%
Dak Prescott sacked by Darius Poullard for a loss of 5 yards to the NWSt 28 Dak Prescott fumbled, recovered by NWSt Darius Poullard , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Ed Eagan, broken up by Cedric JilesSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.2%
De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the NWSt 29Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
99.2%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Tuff McClain, broken up by Cedric JilesSimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+22
99.2%
Andy Wickman punt for 51 yds , Fred Ross returns for 22 yds to the MisSt 39 Fred Ross fumbled, forced by LaAllen Clark, recovered by NWSt Cody JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 9FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-11
99.2%
Stephen Rivers sacked by Chris Jones and A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 11 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 21
50
+15
99.2%
Stephen Rivers pass complete to Daniel Taylor for 15 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
99.2%
Stephen Rivers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+52
99.0%
Chris Moore 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.0%
Gabe Myles run for 9 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
99.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+45
99.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 45 yds to the MISSSTATE 6 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.4%
Gabe Myles run for 6 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 11FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 6:121% → 1%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.4%
Stephen Rivers pass complete to Zach White for 18 yds to the NWSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.4%
Chris Jones run for 6 yds to the NWSt 49Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+6
99.2%
Stephen Rivers pass complete to Ed Eagan for 6 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.3%
Stephen Rivers run for 7 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+12
99.2%
De'Mard Llorens run for 12 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.3%
Daniel Taylor run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+7
99.3%
Stephen Rivers pass complete to Tuff McClain for 7 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
99.3%
Chris Jones run for 7 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
99.1%
Daniel Taylor run for no gain to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
99.2%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Ed Eagan, broken up by Tolando ClevelandSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
99.1%
Chris Moore 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:2299% → 100%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Brandon HollowaySimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 9 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+42
99.3%
Dak Prescott run for 42 yds to the NWSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.4%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the NWSt 6Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 6 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.8%
De'Mard Llorens run for 11 yds to the NWSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.8%
De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the NWSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 14TD
15 plays · 72 yds · 7:482% → 1%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
98.5%
Joel Blumenthal pass complete to Ed Eagan for 10 yds to the NWSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
98.4%
Joel Blumenthal pass complete to Shakeir Ryan for 16 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
98.2%
Daniel Taylor run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
97.9%
Joel Blumenthal run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
97.9%
Joel Blumenthal run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 14:47
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
98.0%
Cody Jones run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
98.1%
Daniel Taylor run for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+6
98.3%
De'Mard Llorens run for 6 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 14:47
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+1
97.7%
De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+11
98.3%
Joel Blumenthal pass complete to Ed Eagan for 11 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
98.0%
Chris Jones run for 7 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+7
97.7%
Daniel Taylor run for 7 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
98.0%
De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
98.8%
De'Mard Llorens run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5299% → 100%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+17
99.2%
Aeris Williams run for 17 yds to the NWSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.2%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the NWSt 40Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+25
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 25 yds to the NWSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 12 yds to the NWSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.2%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 4Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.9%
Chris Jones run for 16 yds to the NWSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Matthew Flores run for no gain to the NWSt 41Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-7
99.9%
Joel Blumenthal sacked by DeAndre Ward and Johnathan Calvin for a loss of 7 yards to the NWSt 34Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 17
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Chris Jones run for 5 yds to the NWSt 39Similar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Andy Wickman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+24
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for 24 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
99.9%
Elijah Staley pass complete to Malik Dear for 18 yds to the NWSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
99.9%
Elijah Staley pass complete to Joe Morrow for 37 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:070% → 0%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Matthew Flores run for 5 yds to the NWSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-3
99.9%
Chris Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Joel Blumenthal pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Andy Wickman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 7 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for 4 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the NWSt 49Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+49
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 49 yds for a TD, (Devon Bell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Joel Blumenthal pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Matthew Flores run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 23Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
99.9%
Joel Blumenthal sacked by Jamal Peters for a loss of 5 yards to the NWSt 18Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Andy Wickman punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Elijah Staley run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Elijah Staley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Wilbur Myers at the NWSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
100.0%
Nigel Dora run for 11 yds to the NWSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
99.9%
Matthew Flores run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 26Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+9
100.0%
Nigel Dora run for 9 yds to the NWSt 35Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Matthew Flores run for 1 yd to the NWSt 36Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Andy Wickman punt for 38 yds, downed at the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
100.0%
Malik Dear run for 19 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
100.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the NWSt 47Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+22
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 22 yds to the NWSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
100.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 9 yds to the NWSt 16Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+4
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 4 yds to the NWSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
100.0%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the NWSt 3Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Devon Bell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Daniel Hazlewood run for 7 yds to the NWSt 32Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
100.0%
Matthew Flores run for 8 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
100.0%
Matthew Flores run for 2 yds to the NWSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:59
De'Mard Llorens run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Moore KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q3 4:02
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q2 0:56
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 6 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com