Northern Arizona
- SRS
- −18.0 (#142)
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2024
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Northern Arizona allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Northern Arizona.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Northern Arizona's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
Every call this season (8)
- Q1 10:164th & 11 at NAU 24, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 3:534th & 8 at NAU 33, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 6:204th & 5 at ARIZ 20, up 4 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 2:584th & 4 at NAU 27, up 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 13:524th & 1 at NAU 34, up 4 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 11:094th & 5 at NAU 30, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:064th & 20 at NAU 33, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 7:174th & 5 at midfield, down 12 · Went for itAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2024
Expected wins adds up Northern Arizona's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2024
Every game starts at Northern Arizona's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.04
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.05
Game by game
Points of win probability, from Northern Arizona's side.
Closest call
NAU 21-19 ARIZ (2021) - Northern Arizona dropped to a 4.8% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2024
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Northern Arizona's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2024
The largest single-play change in Northern Arizona's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Northern Arizona's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Northern Arizona's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Northern Arizona's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Northern Arizona's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.