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NAU

Northern Arizona 21 at Arizona 19

ARIZ
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadNAU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreNAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:04 · Kevin Daniels run for 13 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:48: Will Plummer pass intercepted for a TD return for no gain for a TD (Luis Aguilar KICK) — NAU win probability +3.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:16: Kevin Daniels run for 12 yds for a TD (Luis Aguilar KICK) — NAU win probability +12.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:53: RJ Martinez pass complete to Hendrix Johnson for 9 yds for a TD (Luis Aguilar KICK) — NAU win probability +29.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  4. SACK · Q4 7:40: Jordan McCloud sacked by Carson Taylor for 0 yards to the Ariz 25 — ARIZ win probability +9.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:16: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Boobie Curry for 3 yds for a TD — NAU win probability +11.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 11NAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:26ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:00NAU 4th & 5 at NAU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:18ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:04NAU 4th & 16 at NAU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:13ARIZ 4th & 5 at NAU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:06NAU 4th & 8 at NAU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:05ARIZ 4th & 2 at NAU 6, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:01ARIZ 4th & 2 at NAU 49, up 13
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:26NAU 4th & 4 at NAU 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:10ARIZ 4th & 19 at NAU 43, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    93.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:56NAU 4th & 2 at NAU 28, down 13
    Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:20ARIZ 4th & 14 at NAU 42, up 6
    Close callPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    88.6%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:46NAU 4th & 13 at NAU 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:21ARIZ 4th & 4 at NAU 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    86.2%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:26ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:13NAU 4th & 13 at NAU 18, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−5.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:47ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 48, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:12NAU 4th & 4 at NAU 26, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:17ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 36, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:30NAU 4th & 5 at NAU 23, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:05ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:48NAU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:16NAU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:53NAU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1395% → 95%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
95.2%
Stanley Berryhill III run for 6 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-6
95.1%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
95.0%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+2
94.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 46 yds , Coleman Owen returns for 2 yds to the NoArz 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:055% → 5%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
94.9%
Jeff Widener pass complete to Kevin Daniels for 4 yds to the NoArz 40Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
94.8%
Kevin Daniels run for 1 yd to the NoArz 41Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
94.7%
Jeff Widener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+2
94.7%
DJ Arnson punt for 54 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 2 yds to the Ariz 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:2495% → 94%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
94.6%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 6Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+8
94.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to BJ Casteel for 8 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+12
94.3%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 12 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
94.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
94.2%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
94.0%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
93.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 64 yds, downed at the NoArz 12Similar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
94.0%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoArz 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:066% → 6%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+15
94.0%
Kevin Daniels run for 15 yds to the NoArz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.8%
Jeff Widener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
93.8%
Kevin Daniels run for 3 yds to the NoArz 25Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Jeff Widener sacked by Kyon Barrs for 0 yards to the NoArz 16Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 16
OWN 16
+51
93.6%
DJ Arnson punt for 53 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 51 yds to the NoArz 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2694% → 93%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
93.6%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 1 yd to the NoArz 17Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+4
93.5%
QB Keeper PLUMMER, Will rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the NAU13 (WILSON, Jhasi). PENALTY NAU Holding enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the NAU17 to the NAU9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 19
OPP 27
0
93.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 19
OPP 27
+14
93.1%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 14 yds to the NoArz 13Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
93.3%
Lucas Havrisik 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:567% → 7%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.3%
Draycen Hall run for 6 yds to the NoArz 31Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-6
92.9%
Cale Millen run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoArz 23 fumbled, recovered by NoArz Cale MillenSimilar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
93.1%
Cale Millen run for 4 yds to the NoArz 27Similar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+4
93.1%
DJ Arnson punt for 45 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 4 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:4093% → 94%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
92.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Boobie Curry for 3 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
92.6%
Drake Anderson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+10
92.7%
Drake Anderson run for 10 yds to the NoArz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
93.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to Boobie Curry for 49 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:246% → 7%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.7%
Kevin Daniels run for 4 yds to the NoArz 29Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
93.5%
Kevin Daniels run for 2 yds to the NoArz 31Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
93.5%
Jeff Widener run for 6 yds to the NoArz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.3%
Jeff Widener pass intercepted return for no gain to the NoArz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1294% → 95%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
93.8%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
93.7%
Tayvian Cunningham run for 3 yds to the NoArz 21Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+7
93.6%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 7 yds to the NoArz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
93.8%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 16Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+7
93.7%
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds to the NoArz 9Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+3
93.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 3 yds to the NoArz 6Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+24
95.1%
Lucas Havrisik 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:456% → 6%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
94.4%
RJ Martinez run for 18 yds to the NoArz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.3%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Draycen Hall for no gain to the NoArz 44Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+26
94.3%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Draycen Hall for 26 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:4595% → 95%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
95.0%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 6 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
95.1%
Will Plummer pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 7 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to BJ Casteel for no gain to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
95.2%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+8
95.0%
Will Plummer pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 8 yds to the NoArz 49Similar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
95.0%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:286% → 6%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.4%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
94.4%
Kevin Daniels run for no gain to the NoArz 20Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+6
94.4%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Kevin Daniels for 6 yds to the NoArz 26Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
94.4%
DJ Arnson punt for 54 yds, downed at the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
94.9%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 14INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 1:167% → 6%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
93.5%
Kevin Daniels run for 4 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-4
93.4%
George Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
93.7%
RJ Martinez pass intercepted return for no gain to the Ariz 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:2595% → 94%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+29
94.8%
Will Plummer pass complete to BJ Casteel for 29 yds to the NoArz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.0%
Will Plummer sacked by Eloi Kwete for 0 yards to the NoArz 45Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 21
OPP 45
-4
94.8%
Will Plummer pass complete to Jalen Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the NoArz 49Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 25
OPP 49
+6
94.6%
Will Plummer pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 6 yds to the NoArz 43Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 19
OPP 43
0
94.4%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:026% → 6%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
94.0%
Kevin Daniels run for 2 yds to the NoArz 22Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
94.0%
RJ Martinez run for 6 yds to the NoArz 28Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
93.9%
Kevin Daniels run for no gain to the NoArz 28Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
93.9%
DJ Arnson punt for 46 yds, downed at the Ariz 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
90.5%
Will Plummer pass intercepted for a TD return for no gain for a TD (Luis Aguilar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 1:1390% → 90%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
90.4%
Drake Anderson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+5
91.0%
Drake Anderson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.9%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+19
90.6%
Will Plummer pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 19 yds to the NoArz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
91.0%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-10
90.9%
PLUMMER, Will scrambles to the left for a gain of 10 yards to the NAU28, out of bounds. PENALTY ARI Holding on MORGAN, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the NAU38 to the NAU48. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+6
90.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 6 yds to the NoArz 42Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 14
OPP 42
0
90.2%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
89.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:5212% → 12%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.2%
Kevin Daniels run for 4 yds to the NoArz 29Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
87.7%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Donovan Outlaw) to the NoArz 24Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
88.0%
Kevin Daniels run for 3 yds to the NoArz 27Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
88.1%
MARTINEZ, RJ pass up the middle incomplete intended for DANIELS, Kevin thrown to the NAU31. PENALTY ARI Targeting on DIALLO, Mo enforced 15 yards from the NAU27 to the NAU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
86.7%
Kevin Daniels run for 2 yds to the NoArz 44Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-7
86.1%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the NoArz 37Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+2
87.6%
Kevin Daniels run for 2 yds to the NoArz 39Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
87.7%
DJ Arnson punt for 54 yds, downed at the Ariz 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:1788% → 87%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+19
87.8%
Drake Anderson run for 19 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
88.0%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+15
87.6%
Jalen John run for 15 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
88.6%
Jalen John run for 4 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+15
88.7%
Jalen John run for 15 yds to the NoArz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
88.9%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
88.7%
Jalen John run for 3 yds to the NoArz 38Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+3
88.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 3 yds to the NoArz 35Similar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
87.2%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:4615% → 32%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
84.9%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Draycen Hall for 8 yds to the NoArz 43Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+8
83.4%
RJ Martinez run for 8 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
82.6%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Coleman Owen for no gain to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
83.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Targeting on TURNER, Jaxen enforced (Jaxen Turner) to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
80.8%
Kevin Daniels run for 6 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+3
80.3%
Kevin Daniels run for 3 yds to the Ariz 12Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+12
67.9%
Kevin Daniels run for 12 yds for a TD (Luis Aguilar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3873% → 71%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
72.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 14 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
73.7%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 38Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+8
72.7%
Drake Anderson run for 8 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-10
73.7%
run for a loss of 10 yards to the Ariz 44 fumbled, recovered by Ariz Will PlummerSimilar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
70.5%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the NoArz 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5630% → 30%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
69.7%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Coleman Owen for 8 yds to the NoArz 16Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+5
68.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the NoArz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
68.4%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-3
68.4%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Coleman Owen for a loss of 3 yards to the NoArz 18Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 13
OWN 18
-5
69.6%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Stacy Chukwumezie) to the NoArz 13Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+5
69.4%
Kevin Daniels run for 5 yds to the NoArz 18Similar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 13
OWN 18
+11
70.1%
DJ Arnson punt for 45 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 11 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1871% → 66%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
71.1%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
70.6%
Jalen John run for no gain to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
67.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
65.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2235% → 34%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
64.9%
Kevin Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 19Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+7
64.4%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Matthew Kempton for 7 yds to the NoArz 26Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
64.0%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+5
65.8%
DJ Arnson punt for 51 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 5 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27INT
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:1165% → 68%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
64.8%
Stanley Berryhill III run for 14 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
68.0%
Will Plummer pass intercepted return for no gain to the NoArz 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 28TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:5041% → 83%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
59.3%
Draycen Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 38Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+14
60.5%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Draycen Hall for 14 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
56.4%
RJ Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+2
56.1%
Kevin Daniels run for 2 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+11
54.9%
RJ Martinez run for 11 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
53.0%
RJ Martinez run for 1 yd to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
50.8%
Kevin Daniels run for no gain to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+14
52.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Christian Roland-Wallace) to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
46.3%
Kevin Daniels run for 2 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
17.0%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Hendrix Johnson for 9 yds for a TD (Luis Aguilar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2327% → 18%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.7%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Carson Taylor for 0 yards to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
24.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+16
21.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 16 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-5
20.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Ariz 36Similar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
18.4%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3086% → 86%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
14.3%
Kevin Daniels run for no gain to the NoArz 18Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
12.9%
Kevin Daniels run for 1 yd to the NoArz 19Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+4
14.4%
Kevin Daniels run for 4 yds to the NoArz 23Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
13.6%
DJ Arnson punt for 62 yds, downed at the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 31TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:0316% → 5%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
16.1%
Drake Anderson run for 12 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
16.2%
MCCLOUD, Jordan pass to the left incomplete intended for BERRYHILL III, Stanley thrown to the NAU38. PENALTY NAU Pass Interference on INGRAM, Devontae enforced 15 yards to the ARI42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
18.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 14 yds to the NoArz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
18.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Drake Anderson for 9 yds to the NoArz 35Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+8
22.2%
Drake Anderson run for 8 yds to the NoArz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
21.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to BJ Casteel for 12 yds to the NoArz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
16.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 12 yds to the NoArz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Boobie Curry for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 32END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0798% → 98%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
1.6%
Kevin Daniels run for 5 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+13
1.6%
Kevin Daniels run for 13 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:53
RJ Martinez pass complete to Hendrix Johnson for 9 yds for a TD (Luis Aguilar KICK)
-29.2
TD · Q3 4:16
Kevin Daniels run for 12 yds for a TD (Luis Aguilar KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q4 2:16
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Boobie Curry for 3 yds for a TD
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com