Monmouth Hawks

Expected points

YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Per drive

Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.

Offense−2.21

Defense+1.35allowed

Adjusted for opponents

Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.

Offense−1.21

Defense+1.21allowed

Finishing

Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.

Offense−0.512.8 pts/trip

Defense+1.215.0 pts/trip allowed

Field position

Average expected points where drives started.

Offense1.05

Defense1.90opponents

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Monmouth allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.

Game by game

Offense: points over expected per drive

Defense: points kept off the board per drive

Bars above the line: better than expected for Monmouth.

Fourth downs

YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Made the numbers' call

Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.

7 of 978%

Win probability given up

Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.

4.3 ptsper game

0.04 expected wins over 1 game

When going was clearly right

Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.

1 of 1100%

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Monmouth's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.04 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.

Costliest calls against the numbers

Every call this season (9)

Wk 1 · at MTSU · L 15-507 of 9 agreed

After touchdowns: kick or go for two?

Made the numbers' call

Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.

1 of 250%

Win probability given up

Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.

0.1 ptsthis season

When two was clearly right

Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.

-

Went for two 1 time, converted 1

Costliest tries against the numbers

at MTSUQ3 2:21 Touchdown, down 15 before the tryWent for two; the numbers favored kicking (close call)−0.1 pts

Win probability

YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →

Record vs. expectation, 2021

0-1vs. 0.3 expected−0.3 wins

Expected wins adds up Monmouth's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

L
MTSU

What moved it, 2021

−0.2 wins

before kickoff: being favored, vs. coin flips

−0.3 wins

on the field, after the opening snap

Every game starts at Monmouth's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →