Monmouth Hawks

Expected points

YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →

Drives vs. expectation, 2016

Per drive

Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.

Offense−2.02

Defense+0.12allowed

Adjusted for opponents

Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.

Offense−1.37

Defense+0.85allowed

Finishing

Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.

Offense−1.772.3 pts/trip

Defense−0.633.4 pts/trip allowed

Field position

Average expected points where drives started.

Offense1.08

Defense1.69opponents

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Monmouth allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.

Game by game

Offense: points over expected per drive

Defense: points kept off the board per drive

Bars above the line: better than expected for Monmouth.

Fourth downs

YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2016

Made the numbers' call

Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.

8 of 1267%

Win probability given up

Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.

1.2 ptsper game

0.01 expected wins over 1 game

When going was clearly right

Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.

1 of 1100%

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Monmouth's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.

Costliest calls against the numbers

Every call this season (12)

Wk 3 · at KENT · L 7-278 of 12 agreed

After touchdowns: kick or go for two?

Made the numbers' call

Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.

0 of 10%

Win probability given up

Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.

<0.1 ptsthis season

When two was clearly right

Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.

-

Never went for two

Costliest tries against the numbers

at KENTQ4 5:53 Touchdown, down 14 before the tryKicked; the numbers favored going for two (close call)<0.1 pts

Win probability

YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →

Record vs. expectation, 2016

0-1vs. 0.2 expected−0.2 wins

Expected wins adds up Monmouth's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

L
KENT

What moved it, 2016

−0.3 wins

before kickoff: being favored, vs. coin flips

−0.2 wins

on the field, after the opening snap

Every game starts at Monmouth's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →