Mercyhurst
- SRS
- −52.1 (#260)
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2026
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Mercyhurst allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Mercyhurst.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Mercyhurst's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at NMSUQ2 1:55 4th & 4 at NMSU 33, down 9Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
- at UNMQ4 9:57 4th & 1 at MERC 29, down 63Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at WKUQ4 14:46 4th & 5 at MERC 33, down 38Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
- at WKUQ4 4:43 4th & 10 at WKU 48, down 45Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)<0.1 pts
- at WKUQ4 3:20 4th & 13 at WKU 40, down 45Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (27)
- Q2 10:584th & 10 at MERC 27, down 12 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 5:484th & 2 at MERC 48, down 12 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 1:554th & 4 at NMSU 33, down 9 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q3 4:394th & 17 at MERC 19, down 16 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 12:514th & 11 at MERC 37, down 23 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 8:524th & 8 at MERC 48, down 30 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 2:564th & 6 at MERC 29, down 37 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 3:584th & 16 at MERC 20, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 10:054th & 17 at MERC 34, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 4:144th & 13 at MERC 22, down 35 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:404th & 17 at MERC 12, down 35 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 12:504th & 14 at MERC 35, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 9:194th & 19 at MERC 16, down 49 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 5:164th & 6 at MERC 10, down 56 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 9:574th & 1 at MERC 29, down 63 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 4:194th & 8 at MERC 27, down 63 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 12:494th & 5 at MERC 37, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 7:544th & 8 at MERC 43, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 0:084th & 10 at MERC 25, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 10:284th & 5 at MERC 27, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:504th & 5 at MERC 46, down 24 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 0:404th & 8 at MERC 27, down 31 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 10:124th & 7 at MERC 28, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:464th & 5 at MERC 33, down 38 · Went for itClose call
- Q4 11:474th & 3 at WKU 11, down 38 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 4:434th & 10 at WKU 48, down 45 · Went for itClose call
- Q4 3:204th & 13 at WKU 40, down 45 · Went for itClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2026
Expected wins adds up Mercyhurst's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2026
Every game starts at Mercyhurst's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.10
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.04
Game by game
- NMSUL 14-51 at NMSU4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
- UNML 7-70 at UNM1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
- WKUL 7-52 at WKU1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
Points of win probability, from Mercyhurst's side.
Season arc, 2026
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Mercyhurst's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2026
The largest single-play change in Mercyhurst's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Mercyhurst's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Mercyhurst's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Mercyhurst's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Mercyhurst's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.