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MERC

Mercyhurst 7 at Western Kentucky 52

WKU
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadMERC aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreMERC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:54 · (08:04) #91 T.O'Neill punt 55 yards to the WKU02 #80 J.Stafford Jr. return 17 yards to the WKU19 (#17 S.Ferguson)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Pregame prior+46.6Home team on offense+1.1Score differential+0.3Blowout margin+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:52: (12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete deep left to #4 C.Flowers caught at MER01, for 23 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:52, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MER Holding declined #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff) — WKU win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:41: (04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Glenn rush right for 1 yard gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:41 #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff) — WKU win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:07: (01:10) Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #3 A.Allen caught at MER41, for 41 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:07, 1ST DOWN #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff) — WKU win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MERC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:49MERC 4th & 5 at MERC 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54MERC 4th & 8 at MERC 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:56WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:01WKU 4th & 9 at MERC 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:08MERC 4th & 10 at MERC 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:28MERC 4th & 5 at MERC 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:50MERC 4th & 5 at MERC 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:07WKU 4th & 5 at MERC 41, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−<0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:40MERC 4th & 8 at MERC 27, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:12MERC 4th & 7 at MERC 28, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:46MERC 4th & 5 at MERC 33, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:47MERC 4th & 3 at WKU 11, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:43MERC 4th & 10 at WKU 48, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:20MERC 4th & 13 at WKU 40, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:50WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 48, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:28WKU 4th & 4 at MERC 40, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MERC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:41WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:52WKU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:41WKU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:07WKU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:16WKU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:34WKU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:49MERC Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:01WKU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MERCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
98.7%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short left to #4 A.Lattimore caught at MER36, for 5 yards to the MER37 (#7 J.Lewis)Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-1
98.7%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MER36 (#21 J.Wester)Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+1
98.6%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short left to #24 E.Knox caught at MER36, for 1 yard to the MER37 (#21 J.Wester)Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
98.6%
(12:52) #91 T.O'Neill punt 49 yards to the WKU14 fair catch by #80 J.Stafford Jr. at WKU14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 0:5499% → 99%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
98.6%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short left to #7 Q.Humphreys caught at WKU19, for 10 yards to the WKU24 (#2 A.Jordan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
98.5%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Allen rush left for 4 yards gain to the WKU28 (#2 A.Jordan)Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+72
98.6%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete deep left to #21 N.Johnson caught at MER31, for 72 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:41, 1ST DOWN #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:312% → 2%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
98.5%
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MER21 (#45 J.Knight; #33 Z.Lawton)Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+3
98.5%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short right to #1 E.Van Dyke caught at MER25, for 3 yards to the MER24, out of bounds at MER24, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
98.4%
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MER27 (#32 W.Ard)Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+14
98.4%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush left for 14 yards gain to the MER41 (#7 J.Lewis; #45 J.Knight), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.3%
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short right to #1 E.Van Dyke thrown to WKU46 QB hurried by #45 J.KnightSimilar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
98.3%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete deep right to #1 E.Van Dyke thrown to WKU34Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+2
98.3%
(08:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 E.Knox rush left for 2 yards gain to the MER43 (#33 Z.Lawton)Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+17
98.3%
(08:04) #91 T.O'Neill punt 55 yards to the WKU02 #80 J.Stafford Jr. return 17 yards to the WKU19 (#17 S.Ferguson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 6:3898% → 98%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
98.2%
(07:47) Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the WKU23, out of bounds at WKU23Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+10
98.2%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Allen rush middle for 10 yards gain to the WKU33 (#30 E.Binakonsky), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
98.1%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WKU36 (#11 P.Carter)Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
98.1%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #14 C.Ezirim caught at WKU36, for 4 yards to the WKU40 (#30 E.Binakonsky; #12 M.Hawkins Jr.)Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+1
98.1%
(05:38) No Huddle #11 B.Glenn rush right for 1 yard gain to the WKU41 (#13 J.Saunders; #24 K.Platz)Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+4
98.0%
(05:00) No Huddle #5 R.Tisdale Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the WKU45 (#14 J.Leavell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
98.0%
(04:25) No Huddle #80 J.Stafford Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the WKU47 (#14 J.Leavell)Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+18
97.9%
(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Glenn rush middle for 18 yards gain to the MER35 (#13 J.Saunders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
97.9%
(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Stafford Jr. caught at MER37, for 17 yards to the MER18 (#8 B.Beckwith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
97.8%
(02:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Allen rush right for 0 yards to the MER18 (#11 P.Carter; #14 J.Leavell)Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-7
97.8%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. rush left for 7 yards loss to the MER25 (#8 B.Beckwith)Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 17
OPP 25
+8
97.6%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Stafford Jr. caught at MER26, for 8 yards to the MER17 (#8 B.Beckwith; #17 C.Scharriter)Similar
Q1 1:01
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
97.6%
(01:01) #99 K.Campbell field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff), clock 01:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:412% → 2%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush middle for 0 yards to the MER25 (#13 L.Thompson)Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete deep right to #23 D.Evans thrown to MER49Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short right to #23 D.Evans thrown to MER27 QB hurried by #33 Z.LawtonSimilar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
(00:08) #91 T.O'Neill punt 44 yards to the WKU31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:4097% → 98%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
97.4%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short middle to #22 L.Meadows caught at WKU27, for 7 yards to the WKU38 (#23 D.Pringle)Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+38
97.5%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short left to #14 C.Ezirim caught at MER44, for 38 yards to the MER24 (#8 B.Beckwith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
97.3%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #14 C.Ezirim caught at MER25, for 1 yard to the MER23 (#14 J.Leavell; #3 Z.Dixon)Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+23
98.3%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete deep left to #4 C.Flowers caught at MER01, for 23 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:52, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MER Holding declined #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:092% → 2%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
98.1%
(12:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush right for 1 yard loss to the MER21 (#21 J.Wester; #50 E.Jones)Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+10
98.0%
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short middle to #4 A.Lattimore caught at MER26, for 10 yards to the MER31 (#7 J.Lewis)Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-4
97.9%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush middle for 4 yards loss to the MER27 (#21 J.Wester)Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
98.0%
(10:37) #91 T.O'Neill punt 58 yards to the WKU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 5:4098% → 99%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
98.1%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Allen rush right for 6 yards gain to the WKU21 (#6 A.Marshall; #30 E.Binakonsky)Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+7
98.1%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the WKU28 (#30 E.Binakonsky), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
98.1%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Allen rush left for 12 yards gain to the WKU40 (#3 Z.Dixon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.2%
(08:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass incomplete short left to #80 J.Stafford Jr. thrown to MER46Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
98.2%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Stafford Jr. caught at WKU38, for 9 yards to the WKU49 (#30 E.Binakonsky)Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
98.0%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Allen rush right for 3 yards gain to the MER48 (#97 M.Ortiz Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
98.0%
(07:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short middle to #17 Z.Taylor caught at WKU46, for 6 yards loss to the WKU46 (#3 Z.Dixon)Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+12
98.0%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short left to #4 C.Flowers caught at WKU47, for 12 yards to the MER42 (#6 A.Marshall; #28 B.Washington)Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+10
97.9%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short left to #7 Q.Humphreys caught at MER35, for 10 yards to the MER32 (#6 A.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
98.0%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Flowers rush right for 8 yards gain to the MER24 (#23 D.Pringle)Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+23
97.9%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete deep right to #80 J.Stafford Jr. caught at MER02, for 23 yards to the MER01 (#23 D.Pringle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Glenn rush right for 1 yard gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:41 #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:431% → 1%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.6%
(04:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush left for 3 yards gain to the MER28 (#7 J.Lewis)Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
98.5%
(04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Lattimore rush right for 0 yards to the MER28 (#32 W.Ard)Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
98.6%
(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short middle to #7 C.MacDonald caught at MER39, for 13 yards to the MER41 (#21 J.Wester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.6%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short left to #4 A.Lattimore thrown to MER46Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.6%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MER46 (#7 J.Lewis)Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
98.5%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short right to #7 C.MacDonald thrown to WKU41Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
98.6%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short middle to #4 A.Lattimore thrown to MER49 broken up by #32 W.Ard, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 0:3499% → 100%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
99.0%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. sacked for loss of 7 yards to the WKU47 (#12 M.Hawkins Jr.)Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 17
OWN 47
0
99.0%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass incomplete short right to #12 Q.Burroughs thrown to WKU48 QB hurried by #32 J.AskewSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+12
99.0%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Stafford Jr. caught at MER49, for 12 yards to the MER41 (#3 Z.Dixon)Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+41
99.6%
(01:10) Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #3 A.Allen caught at MER41, for 41 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:07, 1ST DOWN #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:230% → 0%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short left to #15 E.Holbrook caught at MER29, for 5 yards to the MER30, out of bounds at MER30Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.7%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short left to #24 E.Knox caught at MER27, for 3 yards to the MER33 (#2 T.Newsome Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-6
99.7%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MER27 (#50 E.Jones)Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
(00:44) #91 T.O'Neill punt 40 yards to the WKU33, out of bounds at WKU33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
99.6%
(00:37) Kneel down by #5 R.Tisdale Jr. at WKU31 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.7%
(14:42) Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WKU30 (#15 E.Holbrook)Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+4
99.7%
(14:20) Shotgun #3 A.Allen rush left for 4 yards gain to the WKU34 (#11 P.Carter; #12 M.Hawkins Jr.)Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+16
99.7%
(13:54) Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. rush middle for 16 yards gain to the WKU50, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
50
+17
99.7%
(13:08) Shotgun #11 B.Glenn pass complete short middle to #14 C.Ezirim caught at MER37, for 17 yards to the MER33 (#8 B.Beckwith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
99.7%
(12:42) Shotgun #11 B.Glenn rush middle for 16 yards gain to the MER17 (#30 E.Binakonsky; #14 J.Leavell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
99.8%
(12:03) Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Stafford Jr. caught at MER19, for 0 yards to the MER17 (#93 K.Jackson) PENALTY WKU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting MER UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-3
99.8%
(11:16) Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short middle to #80 J.Stafford Jr. caught at MER21, for 3 yards loss to the MER20 (#23 D.Pringle)Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 13
OPP 20
+20
99.8%
(11:16) Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #12 Q.Burroughs caught at MER09, for 20 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:16, 1ST DOWN #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete deep left to #23 D.Evans thrown to WKU43Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
(11:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short right to #1 E.Van Dyke caught at MER23, for 3 yards to the MER28 (#7 J.Lewis)Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short right to #23 D.Evans thrown to MER36 broken up by #4 C.FlowersSimilar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+34
99.8%
(10:17) #91 T.O'Neill punt 49 yards to the WKU23 #4 C.Flowers return 34 yards to the MER43, out of bounds at MER43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.8%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Meadows rush left for 9 yards gain to the MER34 (#12 M.Hawkins Jr.)Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
99.8%
(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass incomplete deep right to #8 M.Barry thrown to MER04Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+14
99.8%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Glenn rush left for 14 yards gain to the MER20 (#8 B.Beckwith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.8%
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Glenn pass incomplete short right to #4 C.Flowers thrown to MER10 QB hurried by #12 M.Hawkins Jr.Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.8%
(08:53) Shotgun #11 B.Glenn pass incomplete deep right to #17 Z.Taylor thrown to MER00Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+11
99.8%
(08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #19 L.Howard caught at MER14, for 11 yards to the MER09 (#12 M.Hawkins Jr.; #2 A.Jordan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
99.8%
(08:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Meadows rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MER03 (#3 Z.Dixon; #12 M.Hawkins Jr.)Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.8%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass incomplete short right to #80 J.Stafford Jr. thrown to MER01Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
(07:34) Shotgun #11 B.Glenn pass complete short middle to #19 L.Howard caught at MER00, for 3 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:34 #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 16TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 5:230% → 0%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+29
99.9%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short middle to #9 E.Fincher caught at MER08, for 29 yards to the MER40 (#3 C.White), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short left to #9 E.Fincher caught at MER39, for 2 yards to the MER42 (#18 G.Akpaloo; #50 E.Jones), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+14
99.9%
(06:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short right to #1 E.Van Dyke caught at WKU47, for 14 yards to the WKU44, out of bounds at WKU44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.9%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.MacDonald rush left for 3 yards gain to the WKU41 (#7 J.Lewis)Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+15
99.9%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short left to #24 E.Knox caught at WKU38, for 15 yards to the WKU26 (#18 G.Akpaloo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short left to #9 E.Fincher thrown to WKU19 broken up by #32 W.Ard QB hurried by #0 M.MalotumauSimilar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.9%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 E.Fincher rush left for 3 yards gain to the WKU23 (#21 J.Wester)Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+12
99.9%
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short middle to #4 A.Lattimore caught at WKU26, for 12 yards to the WKU11 (#32 W.Ard; #6 J.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.9%
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 E.Fincher rush left for 1 yard gain to the WKU10 (#5 D.Herard)Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short middle to #6 S.Hampton caught at WKU00, for 10 yards to the WKU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:49, 1ST DOWN #47 R.Marcantonio kick attempt good (H: #90 G.McGuire, LS: #44 A.Lin) #47 R.Marcantonio kick attempt good (H: #90 G.McGuire, LS: #44 A.Lin) PENALTY #47 R.Marcantonio kick attempt good (H: #90 G.McGuire, LS: #44 A.Lin) PENALTY MER False Start (#47 R.Marcantonio) #47 R.Marcantonio kick attempt good (H: #90 G.McGuire, LS: #44 A.Lin) PENALTY MER False Start (#47 R.Marcantonio) 5 yards from WKU03 to WKU08. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:23100% → 100%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
50
+9
99.9%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Glenn pass complete short right to #87 C.Arends caught at WKU50, for 9 yards to the MER41 (#28 B.Washington)Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+13
99.9%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Meadows rush left for 13 yards gain to the MER28 fumbled by #22 L.Meadows at MER29 forced by #6 A.Marshall recovered by MER #6 A.Marshall at MER28, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:100% → 0%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short left to #23 D.Evans thrown to MER44 broken up by #21 J.WesterSimilar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 R.Miller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MER32 (#21 J.Wester)Similar
Q3 0:08
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+1
99.9%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short left to #23 D.Evans caught at MER27, for 1 yard to the MER33 (#6 J.Brown) PENALTY MER Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
(14:55) No Huddle #59 H.Snyder rush left for 7 yards gain to the MER40 (#45 J.Knight), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short right to #4 A.Lattimore thrown to MER49Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
(14:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 E.Fincher rush left for 7 yards gain to the MER47 (#13 L.Thompson)Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+35
99.9%
(13:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush middle for 35 yards gain to the WKU18 (#5 D.Herard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short middle to #8 S.Yancey thrown to WKU06 broken up by #7 J.LewisSimilar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
99.9%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short right to #24 E.Knox caught at WKU15, for 7 yards to the WKU11 (#2 T.Newsome Jr.)Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
99.9%
(11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short middle to #7 C.MacDonald thrown to WKU00 broken up by #2 T.Newsome Jr.Similar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 3
OPP 11
0
99.9%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short middle to #4 A.Lattimore thrown to WKU05 broken up by #6 J.Brown, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 89 yds · 0:33100% → 100%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
99.9%
(11:42) Shotgun #22 L.Meadows rush middle for 17 yards gain to the WKU28 (#54 M.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
99.9%
(11:08) Shotgun #11 B.Glenn pass complete short middle to #17 Z.Taylor caught at WKU46, for 72 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:01, 1ST DOWN #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 20DOWNS
19 plays · 39 yds · 7:240% → 0%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
100.0%
(10:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 E.Fincher rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MER23 (#17 Z.Minnis)Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
100.0%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short middle to #9 E.Fincher caught at MER21, for 3 yards to the MER26 (#55 V.Sneed Jr.)Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+5
100.0%
(09:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short middle to #24 E.Knox caught at MER29, for 5 yards to the MER31 (#22 J.Donald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
100.0%
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 E.Knox rush left for 1 yard gain to the MER32 (#29 J.Mensah)Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+7
100.0%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short right to #19 W.Page Jr. caught at MER39, for 7 yards to the MER39 (#19 J.Cosby-Mosley)Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
100.0%
(07:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 E.Knox rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MER41 (#50 E.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
100.0%
(06:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete deep left to #1 E.Van Dyke thrown to WKU35 broken up by #24 L.WrightSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
100.0%
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short left to #9 E.Fincher caught at MER46, for 6 yards to the MER47 (#22 J.Donald)Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
100.0%
(05:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 E.Fincher rush right for 5 yards gain to the WKU48 (#22 J.Donald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete deep right to #23 D.Evans thrown to WKU18. #14 B.Myers injured on the playSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
(05:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short middle to #8 S.Yancey thrown to WKU48 broken up by #13 L.ThompsonSimilar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short right to #24 E.Knox thrown to WKU42 QB hurried by #29 J.MensahSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 10
OPP 48
+11
100.0%
(04:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short right to #23 D.Evans caught at WKU38, for 11 yards to the WKU37 (#38 A.Gbee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
100.0%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete deep right to #1 E.Van Dyke thrown to WKU12 PENALTY MER Holding (#0 C.Melendez) 10 yards from WKU37 to WKU47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 20
OPP 47
0
100.0%
(04:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete deep right to #23 D.Evans thrown to WKU22Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 20
OPP 47
0
100.0%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short left to #19 W.Page Jr. thrown to WKU30Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 20
OPP 47
+7
100.0%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short right to #24 E.Knox caught at WKU49, for 7 yards to the WKU40 (#22 J.Donald; #29 J.Mensah) PENALTY MER Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
100.0%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete deep left to #8 S.Yancey thrown to WKU20 broken up by #5 D.Herard, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21END OF GAME
11 plays · 23 yds · 2:42100% → 100%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
100.0%
(03:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Hicks rush middle for 0 yards to the WKU40 (#99 M.Mudd; #10 C.Cobb Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
100.0%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Hicks rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WKU45 (#18 C.Bridges)Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+3
100.0%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.McMickle pass complete short right to #84 J.Carroll caught at WKU47, for 3 yards to the WKU48 (#57 J.Brown)Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+6
100.0%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Hicks rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MER46 (#57 J.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
100.0%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Hicks rush right for 2 yards gain to the MER44 (#99 M.Mudd)Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
100.0%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Hicks rush right for 4 yards gain to the MER40 (#18 C.Bridges; #10 C.Cobb Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
100.0%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.McMickle pass incomplete short middle to #14 C.Ezirim thrown to MER32Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+5
100.0%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.McMickle rush right for 5 yards gain to the MER35 (#25 D.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
100.0%
(00:26) Kneel down by #10 C.McMickle at MER37 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:52
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete deep left to #4 C.Flowers caught at MER01, for 23 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:52, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MER Holding declined #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff)
+1
TD · Q2 4:41
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Glenn rush right for 1 yard gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:41 #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff)
+0.9
TD · Q2 1:07
(01:10) Shotgun #5 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #3 A.Allen caught at MER41, for 41 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:07, 1ST DOWN #99 K.Campbell kick attempt good (H: #43 J.Smith, LS: #49 N.Imhoff)
+0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com