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MERC

Mercyhurst 14 at New Mexico State 51

NMSU
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadMERC aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreMERC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:52 · (08:56) #91 T.O'Neill punt 41 yards to the NMSU11 fair catch by #7 T.Pride at NMSU11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+10.7Home team on offense+36.8Score differential+30.2Garbage-time factor+10.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+14.9Blowout margin+16.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:03: (08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:03 #47 R.Marcantonio kick attempt good (H: #90 G.McGuire, LS: #44 A.Lin) — MERC win probability +0.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MERC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:24: (01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush left for 16 yards gain to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:24 #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt failed ( blocked by #0 T.McDuffie) (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage) recovered by MERCY #0 T.McDuffie at MERCY03, End Of Play — NMSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:19: (05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 46 yards gain to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:19, 1ST DOWN #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage) — MERC win probability +1.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:42: (07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:42 #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage) — NMSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:56: (15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short right to #2 J.Jones for 2 yards to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56 #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage) — NMSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MERC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 5:59NMSU 4th & 10 at MERC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:07NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:58MERC 4th & 10 at MERC 27, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:59NMSU 4th & 4 at MERC 21, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:48MERC 4th & 2 at MERC 48, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.2%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:55MERC 4th & 4 at NMSU 33, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.2%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:37NMSU 4th & 4 at MERC 33, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:37NMSU 4th & 2 at MERC 47, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.8%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:39MERC 4th & 17 at MERC 19, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:05NMSU 4th & 2 at MERC 39, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:51MERC 4th & 11 at MERC 37, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:52MERC 4th & 8 at MERC 48, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:56MERC 4th & 6 at MERC 29, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MERC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:03MERC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:24NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:42NMSU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:56NMSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:32NMSU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:29NMSU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MERCDrive 1INT TD
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.2%
PENALTY MERCY Delay Of Game 5 yards from MERCY25 to MERCY20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-26
96.2%
Nick Session 26 Yd Interception Return (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:354% → 5%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.1%
(14:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush right for 3 yards gain to the MERCY28 (#16 G.Peterson; #1 J.Charles)Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
96.0%
(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush middle for 18 yards gain to the MERCY46 (#5 N.Session), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
95.9%
(13:24) Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short left to #25 C.Lewis for 12 yards to the NMSU42 (#5 N.Session), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
95.8%
(12:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short left to #23 D.Evans for 18 yards to the NMSU24 (#16 G.Peterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
95.7%
(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short left to #23 D.Evans for 5 yards to the NMSU19 (#5 N.Session; #16 G.Peterson)Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
95.6%
(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short middle to #1 E.Van Dyke for 0 yards to the NMSU19 (#98 J.Gwan; #44 E.Tayou)Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+5
95.5%
(10:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short right to #25 C.Lewis for 5 yards to the NMSU14 (#99 R.Baller; #4 D.Peters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-9
95.4%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan sacked for loss of 9 yards to the NMSU23 (#99 R.Baller)Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 19
OPP 23
+14
95.3%
(09:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short middle to #1 E.Van Dyke for 14 yards to the NMSU09 (#5 N.Session; #34 Z.Davis)Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+5
95.2%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short left to #25 C.Lewis caught at NMSU09, for 5 yards to the NMSU04 (#14 S.Aupiu), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NMSU Face Mask (#1 J.Charles) 2 yards from NMSU04 to NMSU02, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.6%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:03 #47 R.Marcantonio kick attempt good (H: #90 G.McGuire, LS: #44 A.Lin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3MISSED FG
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:5395% → 94%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
95.0%
PENALTY NMSU False Start (#6 B.Malone-Bradford) 5 yards from MERCY28 to MERCY33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+8
94.9%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MERCY25 (#30 E.Binakonsky)Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+6
94.8%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short to #1 T.King caught at MERCY23, for 6 yards to the MERCY19 (#5 J.Allos; #27 D.Webb)Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-9
94.7%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden sacked for loss of 9 yards to the MERCY28 (#3 Z.Dixon)Similar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
94.4%
(06:01) #17 I.Uvaydov field goal attempt from 46 yards NO GOOD (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage), clock 05:59Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:506% → 6%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
94.3%
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush middle for 0 yards to the MERCY28 (#90 J.Downey; #99 R.Baller) PENALTY MERCY UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#77 S.Prementine) 14 yards from MERCY28 to MERCY14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 24
OWN 14
+6
94.1%
(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short right to #23 D.Evans caught at MERCY12, for 6 yards to the MERCY20 (#4 D.Peters)Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+7
93.9%
(04:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short middle to #4 A.Lattimore caught at MERCY23, for 7 yards to the MERCY27 (#14 S.Aupiu)Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
93.9%
(04:12) #91 T.O'Neill punt 38 yards to the NMSU35 fair catch by #1 T.King at NMSU35 PENALTY NMSU Running Into The Kicker declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:3994% → 94%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
93.9%
(04:08) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NMSU41 (#30 E.Binakonsky)Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
93.9%
(03:40) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NMSU44 (#30 E.Binakonsky)Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
93.7%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NMSU48 (#3 Z.Dixon; #4 J.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+46
93.7%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete deep middle to #1 T.King caught at MERCY12, for 46 yards to the MERCY06 (#27 D.Webb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+10
93.8%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush left for 3 yards gain to the MERCY03 (#5 J.Allos; #2 A.Jordan), out of bounds PENALTY NMSU Holding (#6 B.Malone-Bradford) 10 yards from MERCY06 to MERCY16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
94.4%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush left for 16 yards gain to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:24 #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt failed ( blocked by #0 T.McDuffie) (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage) recovered by MERCY #0 T.McDuffie at MERCY03, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 6TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:176% → 6%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
94.0%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush left for 8 yards gain to the MERCY38 (#5 N.Session; #6 T.Gethers)Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
93.6%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush for 3 yards gain to the MERCY41 fumbled by #2 J.Gamble at MERCY40 forced by #6 T.Gethers recovered by MERCY #2 J.Gamble at MERCY41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+37
96.1%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete deep right to #1 E.Van Dyke caught at NMSU27, for 37 yards to the NMSU22 (#1 J.Charles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
96.1%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Lattimore rush right for 3 yards gain to the NMSU19 (#6 T.Gethers; #97 H.Davis III)Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
94.2%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short right to #25 C.Lewis thrown to NMSU00Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+5
94.3%
PENALTY NMSU Offside (#98 J.Gwan) 5 yards from NMSU19 to NMSU14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+14
94.3%
Camden Lewis 14 Yd pass from Alex Gevaudan (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1295% → 95%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep middle to #5 M.Libman thrown to MERCY39 broken up by #13 J.SaundersSimilar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.2%
(12:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NMSU30 (#9 L.Griffin; #4 J.Miller)Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
95.1%
(12:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short right to #7 T.Pride thrown to NMSU32Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.0%
(12:07) #91 B.Richter punt 43 yards to the MERCY27 fair catch by #15 E.Holbrook at MERCY27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:026% → 5%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
94.5%
(12:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush middle for 0 yards to the MERCY27 (#25 J.Sandiford)Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
95.1%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete deep right to #4 A.Lattimore thrown to NMSU41. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete deep right to #4 A.Lattimore caught at NMSU42, for 31 yards to the NMSU42 (#22 R.Chapman), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
95.1%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short right to #23 D.Evans thrown to MERCY27Similar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+1
95.1%
(11:08) #91 T.O'Neill punt 44 yards to the NMSU29 #1 T.King return 1 yard to the NMSU30 (#23 D.Pringle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4995% → 95%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 12
OWN 28
+3
95.3%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush left for 3 yards gain to the NMSU31 (#17 C.Scharriter; #5 J.Allos)Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
95.4%
(10:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 0 yards to the NMSU31 (#4 J.Miller; #13 J.Saunders)Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+42
95.2%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete deep right to #1 T.King caught at MERCY32, for 42 yards to the MERCY27 (#6 A.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
95.6%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short to #86 J.Lydiatt thrown to MERCY10Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
95.5%
(08:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush for 6 yards gain to the MERCY21 (#6 A.Marshall; #13 J.Saunders)Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
95.2%
(08:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep left to #6 B.Malone-Bradford thrown to MERCY00 broken up by #2 A.JordanSimilar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
95.1%
(08:02) #17 I.Uvaydov field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage), clock 07:59Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:035% → 6%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
94.8%
(07:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell Jr. rush left for 2 yards loss to the MERCY23 (#10 C.Barron; #2 J.Gillespie)Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+17
94.8%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short to #4 A.Lattimore for 17 yards to the MERCY40 (#2 J.Gillespie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
94.6%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MERCY42 (#2 J.Gillespie; #98 J.Gwan)Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
94.6%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short right to #15 E.Holbrook thrown to MERCY44 QB hurried by #16 G.PetersonSimilar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+6
94.7%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MERCY48 (#6 T.Gethers; #10 C.Barron)Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
94.5%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush left for 0 yards to the MERCY48 (#90 J.Downey), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2095% → 94%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
95.2%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MERCY46 (#3 Z.Dixon; #24 K.Platz)Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+46
93.6%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 46 yards gain to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:19, 1ST DOWN #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 2 yds · 3:117% → 8%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
93.1%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MERCY41 (#15 O.Okeke; #6 T.Gethers)Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
92.7%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short to #4 A.Lattimore thrown to MERCY45 broken up by #14 S.AupiuSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+7
92.9%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass complete short to #25 C.Lewis caught at MERCY46, for 7 yards to the MERCY48 (#5 N.Session), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.6%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete deep middle to #1 E.Van Dyke thrown to NMSU20Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
92.7%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush middle for 13 yards gain to the NMSU39 (#5 N.Session), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
92.2%
(03:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan pass incomplete short left to #1 E.Van Dyke thrown to NMSU30Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
92.2%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NMSU40 (#13 K.Roberts-Day)Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+7
92.5%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Gevaudan rush for 7 yards gain to the NMSU33 (#6 T.Gethers; #10 C.Barron)Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+50
91.9%
(02:00) #47 R.Marcantonio field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD (H: #90 G.McGuire, LS: #44 A.Lin), clock 01:55Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 1:0293% → 93%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
92.7%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #15 O.Okeke caught at NMSU34, for 9 yards to the NMSU42 (#8 B.Beckwith; #3 Z.Dixon)Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
93.1%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short to #8 D.Stanley thrown to NMSU44Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
92.8%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Stanley rush right for 4 yards gain to the NMSU46 (#7 J.Vital Cloutier; #5 J.Allos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
93.1%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short middle to #8 D.Stanley for 15 yards to the MERCY39 (#14 J.Leavell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
93.2%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short middle to #15 J.Thomas for 8 yards to the MERCY31 (), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
93.5%
(00:58) No Huddle #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short to #1 T.King thrown to MERCY29Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-2
93.1%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Stanley rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MERCY33 (#8 B.Beckwith)Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+51
92.5%
(00:37) #17 I.Uvaydov field goal attempt from 51 yards NO GOOD (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage), clock 00:37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
91.3%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MERCY36 (#99 R.Baller)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:1592% → 91%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.8%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NMSU31 (#17 C.Scharriter; #7 J.Vital Cloutier)Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
92.0%
(14:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush left for 14 yards gain to the NMSU45 (#14 J.Leavell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
92.4%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NMSU49 (#17 C.Scharriter; #55 R.McAndrews)Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
92.3%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short left to #6 B.Malone-Bradford thrown to MERCY46 broken up by #14 J.LeavellSimilar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+4
91.8%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #7 T.Pride caught at MERCY48, for 4 yards to the MERCY47 (#8 B.Beckwith)Similar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
91.2%
(12:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush left for 0 yards to the MERCY47 (#14 J.Leavell; #17 C.Scharriter), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 16INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:299% → 9%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
90.6%
(12:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Tusai pass incomplete deep left to #1 E.Van Dyke thrown to NMSU25 broken up by #22 R.ChapmanSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
90.7%
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush left for 0 yards to the MERCY47 (#26 J.Campbell; #97 H.Davis III) PENALTY MERCY Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-4
91.0%
(12:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Tusai pass intercepted by #14 S.Aupiu at NMSU40 broken up by #1 J.Charles #14 S.Aupiu return 4 yards to the NMSU44 (#4 A.Lattimore; #25 C.Lewis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:3593% → 97%
Q3 11:17
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+12
93.0%
(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 12 yards gain to the MERCY36 (#7 J.Vital Cloutier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
92.8%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep right to #11 A.Williams III thrown to MERCY11Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
92.8%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush for 2 yards gain to the MERCY34 (#6 A.Marshall; #8 B.Beckwith)Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+10
92.7%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MERCY24 (#8 B.Beckwith; #7 J.Vital Cloutier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 9
OPP 23
+12
93.2%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush left for 23 yards gain (12) to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:39 PENALTY NMSU Holding (#11 A.Williams III) 10 yards from MERCY11 to MERCY21Similar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 7
OPP 21
+20
93.2%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 J.Brown rush right for 20 yards gain to the MERCY01 (#13 J.Saunders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.1%
(08:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the MERCY01 (#13 J.Saunders; #11 P.Carter)Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.0%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden rush middle for 0 yards to the MERCY01 (#4 J.Miller; #14 J.Leavell)Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.6%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:42 #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 2:575% → 4%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
95.1%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell Jr. rush left for 24 yards gain to the MERCY50 (#0 L.Smith) PENALTY MERCY Holding (#23 D.Evans) 10 yards from MERCY26 to MERCY16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+9
95.2%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Tusai pass complete short right to #1 E.Van Dyke caught at MERCY25, for 9 yards to the MERCY25 (#4 D.Peters)Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
95.2%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the MERCY25 (#13 K.Roberts-Day; #26 J.Campbell)Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 11
OWN 25
-11
95.2%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Tusai sacked for loss of 11 yards to the MERCY14 (#16 G.Peterson)Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 22
OWN 14
+5
95.9%
PENALTY NMSU Offside (#16 G.Peterson) 5 yards from MERCY14 to MERCY19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
95.9%
(04:47) #91 T.O'Neill punt 45 yards to the NMSU36, out of bounds at NMSU36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:3397% → 99%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
96.8%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMSU38 (#0 T.McDuffie; #3 Z.Dixon)Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
96.9%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep to #15 J.Thomas thrown to MERCY33 broken up by #5 J.Allos PENALTY MERCY Roughing The Passer (#13 J.Saunders) 15 yards from NMSU38 to MERCY47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
97.0%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MERCY42 (#14 J.Leavell; #55 R.McAndrews)Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
97.0%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep right to #1 T.King thrown to MERCY06Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+3
96.9%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush left for 3 yards gain to the MERCY39 (#0 T.McDuffie; #4 J.Miller)Similar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+6
96.7%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short right to #10 L.Ravare caught at MERCY34, for 6 yards to the MERCY33, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
97.2%
PENALTY NMSU False Start 5 yards from MERCY33 to MERCY38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+3
97.2%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush left for 3 yards gain to the MERCY35 (#17 C.Scharriter; #5 J.Allos)Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+32
97.3%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete deep right to #0 T.Washington Jr. caught at MERCY03, for 32 yards to the MERCY03 (#14 J.Leavell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.4%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MERCY02 (#9 L.Griffin; #22 C.Moore)Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.2%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short right to #2 J.Jones for 2 yards to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56 #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:451% → 1%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.2%
(14:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 E.Fincher rush right for 0 yards to the MERCY38 (#34 Z.Davis; #15 O.Okeke)Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.2%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 E.Fincher rush right for 4 yards gain to the MERCY42 (#15 O.Okeke)Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
99.3%
PENALTY MERCY False Start (#52 S.Petros) 5 yards from MERCY42 to MERCY37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
99.3%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Tusai pass incomplete short to #23 D.Evans thrown to NMSU45Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
99.3%
(12:51) #91 T.O'Neill punt 46 yards to the NMSU17 fair catch by #7 T.Pride at NMSU17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21TD
1 play · 83 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
99.9%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete deep right to #9 T.Graves caught at NMSU44, for 83 yards to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:32, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MERCY Holding declined #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 3:330% → 0%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MERCY30 (#21 Z.Thomas; #42 F.Fualema)Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 E.Holbrook rush right for 5 yards gain to the MERCY35 (#11 W.Owens), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
100.0%
(11:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Tusai pass complete short left to #2 J.Gamble caught at MERCY37, for 5 yards to the MERCY40 (#19 G.Stennett; #93 L.Treadwell)Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
99.9%
(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Tusai pass incomplete short right to #13 S.Musgrove thrown to MERCY41 broken up by #2 J.GillespieSimilar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Tusai pass complete short middle to #6 S.Hampton caught at MERCY43, for 6 yards to the MERCY46 (#11 W.Owens), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
100.0%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Tusai pass incomplete deep to #13 S.Musgrove thrown to NMSU22Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
100.0%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush right for 2 yards gain to the MERCY48 (#34 Z.Davis)Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
100.0%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Tusai pass incomplete short middle to #7 C.MacDonald thrown to NMSU39 QB hurried by #15 O.OkekeSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
100.0%
(08:56) #91 T.O'Neill punt 41 yards to the NMSU11 fair catch by #7 T.Pride at NMSU11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 4:14100% → 100%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
99.9%
(08:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Stanley rush left for 7 yards gain to the NMSU18 (#6 A.Marshall)Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+5
99.9%
(08:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Stanley rush left for 5 yards gain to the NMSU23 (#12 M.Hawkins Jr.; #6 A.Marshall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+29
99.9%
(07:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short right to #11 A.Williams III caught at NMSU40, for 29 yards to the MERCY48 (#27 N.Williams; #12 M.Hawkins Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.9%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Stanley rush left for 2 yards gain to the MERCY46 (#30 E.Binakonsky; #9 L.Griffin)Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
99.9%
(06:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 J.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MERCY42 (#30 E.Binakonsky; #9 L.Griffin)Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
(05:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante rush right for 6 yards gain to the MERCY36 (#12 M.Hawkins Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
99.9%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short right to #10 L.Ravare caught at MERCY30, for 13 yards to the MERCY23 (#27 N.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
100.0%
AJ Williams III 23 Yd pass from Adam Damante (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERCDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
(04:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 E.Fincher rush right for 2 yards gain to the MERCY27 (#24 D.Williams; #93 L.Treadwell)Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
100.0%
(03:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gamble rush right for 2 yards gain to the MERCY29 (#21 Z.Thomas)Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Wolter pass incomplete short to #6 S.Hampton thrown to MERCY33 broken up by #7 T.WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
(03:03) #91 T.O'Neill punt 52 yards to the NMSU19 #7 T.Pride return 0 yards to the NMSU19 (#24 K.Platz)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
100.0%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Rudison rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMSU21 (#30 E.Binakonsky)Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+7
100.0%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Rudison rush right for 7 yards gain to the NMSU28 (#30 E.Binakonsky; #24 K.Platz)Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+9
100.0%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Rudison rush for 9 yards gain to the NMSU37 (#98 C.Somers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
100.0%
(01:17) Kneel down by #2 J.Jones at NMSU36 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-1
100.0%
(00:37) Kneel down by #2 J.Jones at NMSU35 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:42
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:42 #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage)
+3.6
TD · Q4 14:56
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short right to #2 J.Jones for 2 yards to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56 #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage)
+1.8
TD · Q2 5:19
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 46 yards gain to the MERCY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:19, 1ST DOWN #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage)
-1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com