Louisiana Tech

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1552nd
  Defense+0.1045th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.3%42nd
  Defense38.5%68th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3991st
  Defense+1.473rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0431st
  Defense+0.1523rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3166th
  Defense+0.0769th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.3%15th
  Defense42.2%77th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense37.6%82nd
  Defense32.1%30th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6311th
  Defense2.7269th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense24.4%6th
  Defense21.0%69th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.7%35th
  Defense21.3%94th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Louisiana Tech allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NWST
2. L
   LSU
3. L
   BAY
4. W
   ARMY
5. W
   UL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Louisiana Tech.

Players, 2026

1. Trey KukukQB70 plays · +0.213 pts/play · 68th of 192 QBs
   0.28WAR0.18 to 0.39
2. Blake BakerQB65 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 102nd of 192 QBs
   0.19WAR0.07 to 0.29
3. Andrew BurnetteRB35 plays · +0.099 pts/play · 157th of 320 RBs
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.09
4. Eli FinleyTE23 plays · +0.139 pts/play · 9th of 164 TEs
   0.06WAR0.02 to 0.10
5. Jalen MickensWR32 plays · +0.099 pts/play · 121st of 364 WRs
   0.06WAR0.02 to 0.11
6. Dylone BrooksRB7 plays · +0.086 pts/play · 272nd of 320 RBs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.02

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Louisiana Tech's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  543543124th of 138Roster talent: 543, 124th of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15315398th of 138Recruiting: 153, 98th of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  64%64%37th of 136Returning production: 64%, 37th of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −5.9−5.996th of 138SP+ rating so far: −5.9, 96th of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Louisiana Tech's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ULQ4 3:44 4th & 3 at UL 12, down 12Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
2. vs ULQ1 8:37 4th & 1 at LT 33, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
3. vs NWSTQ4 8:56 4th & 2 at NWST 32, up 74Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
4. at LSUQ4 4:20 4th & 5 at LSU 48, down 24Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)<0.1 pts
5. vs NWSTQ4 13:26 4th & 8 at NWST 42, up 74Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
6. vs ARMYQ4 2:17 4th & 10 at ARMY 46, up 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

26th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Louisiana Tech's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NWST
2. L

   LSU
3. L

   BAY
4. W

   ARMY
5. W

   UL

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Louisiana Tech's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.34
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts+0.01
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.15

Game by game

• NWSTW 80-6 vs NWST99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +1
• LSUL 14-45 at LSU2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −4
• BAYL 19-36 at BAY10% → 1%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −15
• ARMYW 31-29 vs ARMY58% → 90%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +2
• ULW 32-31 vs UL56% → 87%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +25, Possession & field position +1

Points of win probability, from Louisiana Tech's side.

Closest call

LT 23-20 RICE (2019) - Louisiana Tech dropped to a 6.1% win probability before pulling it out.