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ARMY

Army 29 at Louisiana Tech 31

LT
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:17 · #29 L.Matthews punt 40 yards to the AWP06 #23 L.Benson III return for loss of 1 yard to the AWP05 (#4 K.Franklin)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense+24.5Pregame prior+0.3Garbage-time factor+14.8Score differential+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Time remaining−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:15: Shotgun #26 D.Brooks rush middle for 72 yards gain to the AWP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:15, 1ST DOWN #31 H.Rioux kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims) — LT win probability +11.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:58: #27 S.Howard rush right for 54 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:58, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) PENALTY #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) PENALTY LAT Illegal Substitution 2 yards from LAT03 to LAT01. NO PLAY #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) PENALTY LAT Illegal Substitution (#1 S.Fongang) 2 yards from LAT03 to LAT01. NO PLAY #3 C.Hellums rush attempt Successful — ARMY win probability +17.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:47: Dylone Brooks 74 Yd pass from Marcus Calwise Jr. (Trey Kukuk Pass to Jalen Mickens for Two-Point Conversion) — LT win probability +17.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:11: Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:11 #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) — ARMY win probability +21.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:07: (01:11) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short middle to #44 P.Poloskey caught at LAT00, for 6 yards to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:07 #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) — ARMY win probability +24.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:32LT 4th & 2 at ARMY 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:20LT 4th & 2 at ARMY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:20ARMY 4th & 21 at ARMY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:23LT 4th & 5 at LT 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:23ARMY 4th & 12 at LT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:48LT 4th & 6 at ARMY 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:26ARMY 4th & 11 at ARMY 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:07ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 48, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:28LT 4th & 6 at ARMY 14, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−9.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:57ARMY 4th & 1 at LT 27, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−2.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:17LT 4th & 10 at ARMY 46, up 9
    Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 8:32LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:51ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:15LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:58ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:47LT Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:07LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:11ARMY Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:07ARMY Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.6 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%−2.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 0:0058% → 61%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
57.9%
Shotgun #26 D.Brooks rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LAT22 (#13 C.Williams; #96 D.Stowers)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
57.6%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short left to #11 J.Mickens caught at LAT20, for 4 yards to the LAT26 (#6 J.Porter; #19 J.Moss), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
57.6%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LAT29 (#91 S.Donovan; #42 E.Walton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
57.6%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short left to #47 J.Wilkerson caught at LAT35, for 7 yards to the LAT36 (#6 J.Porter; #3 S.Nnadozie), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+20
57.6%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete deep left to #86 T.Shettron caught at AWP44, for 20 yards to the AWP44 QB hurried by #96 D.Stowers, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
57.6%
PENALTY LAT False Start (#79 A.Cole) 5 yards from AWP44 to AWP49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+7
57.6%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #11 J.Mickens caught at LAT48, for 7 yards to the AWP42 (#7 J.Mayes; #15 Z.Tallman)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
57.6%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AWP39 (#56 N.Buchys; #47 N.Nixon)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+7
57.6%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AWP32 (#42 E.Walton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
57.6%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush right for 0 yards to the AWP32 (#42 E.Walton), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
57.6%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short left to #11 J.Mickens caught at AWP34, for 8 yards to the AWP24 (#6 J.Porter; #13 C.Williams)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
57.6%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short middle to #15 L.Watkins thrown to AWP11 broken up by #6 J.PorterSimilar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+24
60.5%
Shotgun #23 S.Snider rush middle for 24 yards gain to the AWP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:32, 1ST DOWN #31 H.Rioux kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4140% → 44%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.2%
(08:32) #27 S.Howard rush right for 2 yards gain to the AWP27 (#2 A.Butler; #0 J.Mcrae)Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
60.1%
#33 J.Rendina rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AWP29 (#10 K.Fields; #22 J.Mayfield)Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+25
60.3%
Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush right for 25 yards gain to the LAT46 (#0 J.Mcrae), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LAT Offside declinedSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
60.1%
#3 C.Hellums pass complete deep middle to #1 Z.Mundell caught at LAT10, for 46 yards to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:52 PENALTY AWP Face Mask (#71 P.Gennarelli) 15 yards from LAT46 to AWP39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 25
OWN 39
0
60.8%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short left to #11 T.Olawole thrown to AWP45 broken up by #7 J.LockhardtSimilar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 25
OWN 39
+30
60.9%
Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush left for 30 yards gain to the LAT31 (#1 S.Fongang), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
59.7%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LAT28 (#21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+7
59.6%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #1 Z.Mundell caught at LAT27, for 7 yards to the LAT21 (#92 L.Condry; #1 S.Fongang), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
59.6%
#3 C.Hellums rush right for 0 yards to the LAT21 (#22 J.Mayfield; #10 K.Fields)Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
56.2%
#1 Z.Mundell rush left for 21 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:51, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:2259% → 59%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
59.3%
Shotgun #26 D.Brooks rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LAT48 (#47 N.Nixon; #99 J.Bousum)Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+5
59.5%
Shotgun #26 D.Brooks rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AWP47 (#42 E.Walton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
59.7%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short right to #86 T.Shettron thrown to AWP30 QB hurried by #99 J.BousumSimilar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
59.6%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short left to #11 J.Mickens caught at AWP47, for 7 yards to the AWP40 (#95 D.Jones)Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+1
59.5%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush right for 1 yard gain to the AWP39 (#42 E.Walton; #13 C.Williams)Similar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
58.8%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short middle to #86 T.Shettron thrown to AWP20 broken up by #19 J.Moss, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 3:0044% → 42%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
56.5%
(01:20) Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush right for 14 yards gain to the LAT47 (#0 J.Mcrae), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
55.9%
Shotgun #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LAT45 (#24 A.Jackson Jr.; #22 J.Mayfield) PENALTY AWP Chop Block (#75 K.Kloska) 15 yards from LAT47 to AWP38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 25
OWN 38
+2
57.0%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AWP40 (#21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 40
+12
57.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush left for 12 yards gain to the LAT48 (#1 S.Fongang)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 48
-5
56.6%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums sacked for loss of 5 yards to the AWP47 (#24 A.Jackson Jr.)Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 47
+5
57.9%
PENALTY AWP Delay Of Game (#46 J.Wagenseller) 5 yards from AWP47 to AWP42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 21
OWN 42
0
58.0%
#46 J.Wagenseller punt 58 yards to the LAT00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5758% → 57%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
58.3%
Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LAT24 (#99 J.Bousum; #56 N.Buchys)Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
58.4%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush left for 3 yards gain to the LAT27 (#91 S.Donovan; #17 J.Hammond)Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
57.5%
PENALTY LAT Delay Of Game (#2 T.Kukuk) 5 yards from LAT27 to LAT22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+3
57.1%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short middle to #11 J.Mickens caught at LAT25, for 3 yards to the LAT25 (#32 C.Williams; #50 D.Miller)Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 5
OWN 25
-3
56.6%
#29 L.Matthews punt 55 yards to the AWP20 #23 L.Benson III return for loss of 3 yards to the AWP17 (#8 D.Pierro)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 5:0043% → 44%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
56.9%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete deep middle to #84 B.Anderson thrown to LAT45Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
57.2%
Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush left for 7 yards gain to the AWP24 (#10 K.Fields; #2 A.Butler)Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+4
57.1%
#3 C.Hellums rush left for 4 yards gain to the AWP28 (#10 K.Fields; #92 L.Condry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
56.5%
#3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AWP30 (#22 J.Mayfield; #10 K.Fields)Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+15
56.5%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 3 yards loss to the AWP27 (#21 Z.Hill; #22 J.Mayfield) PENALTY LAT Targeting (#24 A.Jackson Jr.) 15 yards from AWP30 to AWP45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 11
OPP 0
0
55.0%
C. Hellums run for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
55.2%
PENALTY LAT UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#24 A.Jackson Jr.) 15 yards from AWP45 to LAT40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
54.7%
Shotgun #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LAT38 (#22 J.Mayfield; #44 K.Coleman)Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-4
54.8%
Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush right for 4 yards loss to the LAT42 (#22 J.Mayfield), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
55.9%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete deep middle to #18 B.Mott thrown to LAT15 QB hurried by #92 L.CondrySimilar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
55.9%
#46 J.Wagenseller punt 38 yards to the LAT04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7TD
5 plays · 96 yds · 2:0858% → 68%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
57.5%
Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 0 yards to the LAT04 (#19 J.Moss; #52 K.Harris-Miller)Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+2
57.3%
PENALTY LAT Illegal Substitution (#6 M.Calwise Jr.) 2 yards from LAT04 to LAT02. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+1
57.3%
Shotgun #26 D.Brooks rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LAT03 (#99 J.Bousum; #48 B.Banks)Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 11
OWN 3
+25
56.2%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at LAT19, for 25 yards to the LAT28 (#7 J.Mayes; #13 C.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
68.1%
Shotgun #26 D.Brooks rush middle for 72 yards gain to the AWP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:15, 1ST DOWN #31 H.Rioux kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8INT
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:2433% → 36%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.1%
(04:15) Shotgun #34 C.Smith rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AWP30 (#10 K.Fields; #0 J.Mcrae)Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
66.3%
Shotgun #34 C.Smith rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AWP34 (#22 J.Mayfield; #92 L.Condry)Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
66.3%
#3 C.Hellums rush left for 4 yards gain to the AWP38 (#21 Z.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
65.9%
Shotgun #34 C.Smith rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AWP41 (#22 J.Mayfield; #11 E.Oguns)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
65.9%
(02:00) Shotgun #26 D.Clerk rush right for 3 yards gain to the AWP44 (#22 J.Mayfield)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+7
65.6%
#33 J.Rendina rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LAT49 (#3 K.Carter; #4 K.Franklin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
64.7%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #86 T.Brannan caught at LAT43, for 6 yards to the LAT43 (#3 K.Carter), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
63.8%
#27 S.Howard rush right for 3 yards gain to the LAT40 (#3 K.Carter; #4 K.Franklin), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-1
64.1%
#3 C.Hellums pass intercepted by #0 J.Mcrae at LAT05 QB hurried by #10 K.Fields #0 J.Mcrae return 1 yard to the LAT06 (#27 S.Howard)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 0:0368% → 70%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
68.0%
Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush right for 0 yards to the LAT06 (#47 N.Nixon; #96 D.Stowers)Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+16
69.0%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #84 E.Finley caught at LAT16, for 16 yards to the LAT22 (#3 S.Nnadozie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
69.5%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #84 E.Finley caught at LAT36, for 19 yards to the LAT41 (#7 J.Mayes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
71.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short left to #86 T.Shettron caught at AWP42, for 27 yards to the AWP32 (#3 S.Nnadozie; #42 E.Walton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
72.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short right to #1 A.Burnette thrown to AWP27Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
72.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short right to #84 E.Finley thrown to AWP23Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+4
71.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AWP28 (#96 D.Stowers)Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
69.8%
#31 H.Rioux field goal attempt from 46 yards NO GOOD (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0231% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
69.0%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 3 yards loss to the AWP22 (#21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+20
69.4%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete deep left to #34 C.Smith caught at AWP42, for 20 yards to the AWP42 QB hurried by #10 K.Fields (#7 J.Lockhardt), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
67.6%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AWP46 (#0 J.Mcrae; #44 K.Coleman)Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+54
49.9%
#27 S.Howard rush right for 54 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:58, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) PENALTY #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) PENALTY LAT Illegal Substitution 2 yards from LAT03 to LAT01. NO PLAY #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) PENALTY LAT Illegal Substitution (#1 S.Fongang) 2 yards from LAT03 to LAT01. NO PLAY #3 C.Hellums rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 1:0654% → 71%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
54.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #11 J.Mickens caught at LAT11, for 4 yards to the LAT18 (#7 J.Mayes)Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+8
54.0%
No Huddle #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short left to #11 J.Mickens caught at LAT15, for 8 yards to the LAT26 (#15 Z.Tallman), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
71.4%
Dylone Brooks 74 Yd pass from Marcus Calwise Jr. (Trey Kukuk Pass to Jalen Mickens for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:1330% → 27%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
70.4%
#33 J.Rendina rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AWP19 (#91 Z.Nunn; #21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-1
70.3%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 1 yard loss to the AWP18 (#10 K.Fields; #44 K.Coleman)Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 18
-5
71.5%
#1 Z.Mundell rush left for 5 yards loss to the AWP13 (#22 J.Mayfield; #7 J.Lockhardt)Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
73.3%
#46 J.Wagenseller punt 52 yards to the LAT35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 3:1974% → 87%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
74.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Mickens rush left for 9 yards gain to the LAT44 (#3 S.Nnadozie; #42 E.Walton)Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
76.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LAT47 (#3 S.Nnadozie; #50 D.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
76.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush right for 6 yards gain to the AWP47 (#15 Z.Tallman)Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+37
76.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 37 yards gain to the AWP10 (#7 J.Mayes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
76.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AWP07 (#42 E.Walton; #56 N.Buchys)Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
86.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush left for 7 yards gain to the AWP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:07, 1ST DOWN #31 H.Rioux kick attempt failed (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:5616% → 37%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.4%
(06:07) #34 C.Smith rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AWP29 (#3 K.Carter)Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
83.5%
#3 C.Hellums rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AWP35 (#44 K.Coleman; #21 Z.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
83.5%
#27 S.Howard rush right for 11 yards gain to the AWP46 (#3 K.Carter; #17 D.Bookhart), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
82.7%
#27 S.Howard rush left for 2 yards loss to the AWP44 (#94 A.Wilks)Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+2
83.7%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AWP46 (#10 K.Fields; #7 J.Lockhardt)Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+2
83.5%
Shotgun #1 Z.Mundell rush left for 2 yards gain to the AWP48 (#17 D.Bookhart)Similar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 8
OWN 48
+26
83.9%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short left to #84 B.Anderson caught at LAT42, for 26 yards to the LAT26 (#7 J.Lockhardt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
80.8%
PENALTY LAT Illegal Substitution (#7 J.Lockhardt) 5 yards from LAT26 to LAT21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 5
OPP 21
0
80.7%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short middle to #1 Z.Mundell thrown to LAT02 broken up by #7 J.LockhardtSimilar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+4
80.7%
Shotgun #34 C.Smith rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LAT17 (#22 J.Mayfield; #92 L.Condry)Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
81.9%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LAT15 (#10 K.Fields; #54 J.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
85.1%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LAT09 (#22 J.Mayfield; #0 J.Mcrae)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+5
85.1%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LAT04 (#10 K.Fields; #1 S.Fongang), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
85.1%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #27 S.Howard caught at LAT06, for 3 yards to the LAT01 (#0 J.Mcrae)Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.3%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:11 #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 5:4378% → 87%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.9%
(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #26 D.Brooks caught at LAT24, for 7 yards to the LAT32 QB hurried by #47 N.Nixon (#15 Z.Tallman)Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
79.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush right for 2 yards gain to the LAT34 (#96 D.Stowers; #19 J.Moss)Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
78.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short left to #11 J.Mickens caught at LAT30, for 4 yards to the LAT38 (#11 D.Thom-Rogers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
79.6%
No Huddle #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short left to #84 E.Finley caught at AWP49, for 19 yards to the AWP43 (#11 D.Thom-Rogers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
80.7%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 1 yard loss to the AWP44 fumbled by #2 T.Kukuk at AWP44 forced by #15 Z.Tallman recovered by LAT #84 E.Finley at AWP44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+26
80.2%
Shotgun #26 D.Brooks rush left for 26 yards gain to the AWP18 (#32 C.Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
81.1%
Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AWP16 (#42 E.Walton; #11 D.Thom-Rogers)Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+2
81.1%
Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush right for 2 yards gain to the AWP14 (#10 C.Searight)Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
79.9%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short middle to #84 E.Finley thrown to AWP09 broken up by #42 E.WaltonSimilar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
87.0%
#31 H.Rioux field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims), clock 07:28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 3:3112% → 9%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.2%
(07:28) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #27 S.Howard caught at AWP30, for 8 yards to the AWP33 (#7 J.Lockhardt)Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
86.3%
#27 S.Howard rush left for 6 yards gain to the AWP39 (#22 J.Mayfield), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LAT Horse Collar Tackle (#22 J.Mayfield) 15 yards from AWP39 to LAT46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.0%
Shotgun #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 0 yards to the LAT46 (#22 J.Mayfield; #93 J.Bradford)Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
85.3%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short left to #84 B.Anderson thrown to LAT35Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
86.2%
#3 C.Hellums rush middle for 0 yards to the LAT46 (#10 K.Fields; #44 K.Coleman)Similar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 10
OPP 46
+10
90.7%
#3 C.Hellums pass incomplete deep right to #1 Z.Mundell thrown to LAT25 broken up by #1 S.Fongang PENALTY LAT Holding (#1 S.Fongang) 10 yards from LAT46 to LAT36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
88.6%
(05:13) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 1 yard gain to the LAT35 (#91 Z.Nunn)Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
87.6%
#3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short right to #84 B.Anderson thrown to LAT20 broken up by #7 J.LockhardtSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+8
88.8%
#3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #1 Z.Mundell caught at LAT27, for 8 yards to the LAT27 (#4 K.Franklin)Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
91.0%
#3 C.Hellums pass incomplete deep right to #27 S.Howard thrown to LAT00 broken up by #4 K.Franklin, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:4093% → 95%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
93.2%
(03:57) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LAT31 (#99 J.Bousum; #42 E.Walton)Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+8
93.6%
(03:52) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush left for 8 yards gain to the LAT39 (#50 D.Miller; #42 E.Walton), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY AWP Face Mask (#11 D.Thom-Rogers) 15 yards from LAT39 to AWP46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
94.2%
Shotgun #26 D.Brooks rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AWP42 (#50 D.Miller; #7 J.Mayes)Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-4
95.3%
(03:18) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 4 yards loss to the AWP46 (#96 D.Stowers; #15 Z.Tallman)Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
95.0%
Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete deep right to #11 J.Mickens thrown to AWP19Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 10
OPP 46
+40
94.8%
#29 L.Matthews punt 40 yards to the AWP06 #23 L.Benson III return for loss of 1 yard to the AWP05 (#4 K.Franklin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 1:103% → 29%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+12
97.0%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #84 B.Anderson caught at AWP16, for 12 yards to the AWP17 (#10 K.Fields; #1 S.Fongang), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
96.5%
(02:00) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short middle to #1 Z.Mundell caught at AWP30, for 14 yards to the AWP31 (#10 K.Fields; #17 D.Bookhart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
96.2%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #84 B.Anderson caught at AWP40, for 10 yards to the AWP41 (#17 D.Bookhart), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.1%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete deep right to #84 B.Anderson thrown to LAT36Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
96.2%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short right to #2 A.Self thrown to LAT45Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+22
96.5%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 22 yards gain to the LAT37 (#1 S.Fongang), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.6%
(01:27) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short middle to #1 Z.Mundell thrown to LAT30 broken up by #16 T.RogersSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
95.4%
(01:23) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short right to #11 T.Olawole thrown to LAT25Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+31
95.7%
(01:18) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete deep left to #84 B.Anderson caught at LAT06, for 31 yards to the LAT06, out of bounds at LAT06, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
70.8%
(01:11) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short middle to #44 P.Poloskey caught at LAT00, for 6 yards to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:07 #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19END OF HALF
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
90.0%
(00:00) Kneel down by #5 B.Baker at AWP41 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-1
89.7%
Kneel down by #5 B.Baker at AWP42 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:07
(01:11) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short middle to #44 P.Poloskey caught at LAT00, for 6 yards to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:07 #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter)
-24.9
TD · Q4 13:11
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:11 #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter)
-21.8
TD · Q3 12:58
#27 S.Howard rush right for 54 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:58, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) PENALTY #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) PENALTY LAT Illegal Substitution 2 yards from LAT03 to LAT01. NO PLAY #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) PENALTY LAT Illegal Substitution (#1 S.Fongang) 2 yards from LAT03 to LAT01. NO PLAY #3 C.Hellums rush attempt Successful
-17.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com