Incarnate Word
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2018
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Incarnate Word allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Incarnate Word.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Incarnate Word's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and every call that differed was a close one. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at UNMQ2 1:01 4th & 2 at UNM 11, down 15Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.1 pts
- at UNTQ3 9:15 4th & 3 at UNT 11, down 35Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at UNMQ1 1:30 4th & 10 at UNM 33, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
- at UNTQ4 7:15 4th & 4 at UNT 49, down 42Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (18)
- AgreedQ1 8:544th & 3 at UIW 32, tied, Punted
- AgreedQ1 4:254th & 10 at UIW 29, down 7, Punted
- Close callQ1 1:304th & 10 at UNM 33, down 14, Went for it
- AgreedQ2 15:004th & 9 at UIW 39, down 21, Punted
- Close callQ2 1:014th & 2 at UNM 11, down 15, Kicked a field goal
- AgreedQ3 13:064th & 6 at UIW 45, down 25, Punted
- AgreedQ3 9:214th & 17 at UIW 41, down 25, Punted
- AgreedQ3 2:324th & 2 at UIW 43, down 32, Went for it
- AgreedQ4 7:234th & 11 at UIW 16, down 32, Punted
- AgreedQ1 10:084th & 13 at UIW 13, down 7, Punted
- AgreedQ1 4:294th & 16 at UIW 1, down 4, Punted
- AgreedQ2 13:474th & 2 at UIW 47, down 11, Went for it
- AgreedQ2 10:484th & 12 at UIW 38, down 18, Punted
- AgreedQ2 6:564th & 3 at UIW 32, down 25, Punted
- Close callQ3 9:154th & 3 at UNT 11, down 35, Kicked a field goal
- AgreedQ3 8:024th & 12 at UIW 23, down 39, Punted
- AgreedQ4 12:494th & 7 at UIW 27, down 42, Punted
- Close callQ4 7:154th & 4 at UNT 49, down 42, Punted
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2018
Expected wins adds up Incarnate Word's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2018
Every game starts at Incarnate Word's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.05
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.03
Game by game
- UNML 30-62 at UNM2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −4
- UNTL 16-58 at UNT1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
Points of win probability, from Incarnate Word's side.
Closest call
UIW 42-34 TXST (2021) - Incarnate Word dropped to a 22.1% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2018
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Incarnate Word's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2018
The largest single-play change in Incarnate Word's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Incarnate Word's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Incarnate Word's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Incarnate Word's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Incarnate Word's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.