Idaho State
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2017
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Idaho State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Idaho State.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Idaho State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.05 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at NEVQ3 3:39 4th & 2 at IDST 44, up 16Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
- at NEVQ2 0:10 4th & 2 at NEV 2, up 13Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
- at NEVQ3 7:04 4th & 2 at IDST 25, up 16Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
- at USUQ2 8:06 4th & 1 at IDST 43, down 25Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
- at NEVQ2 9:04 4th & 7 at NEV 40, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at USUQ2 4:19 4th & 1 at IDST 36, down 32Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at USUQ1 10:14 4th & 4 at USU 43, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at USUQ4 7:15 4th & 22 at USU 38, down 35Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (21)
- Q1 15:004th & 1 at USU 43, tied · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 10:144th & 4 at USU 43, down 3 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 15:004th & 8 at IDST 44, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 8:064th & 1 at IDST 43, down 25 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 4:194th & 1 at IDST 36, down 32 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 11:414th & 15 at IDST 20, down 39 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 8:444th & 7 at IDST 34, down 39 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:424th & 16 at IDST 33, down 35 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 10:044th & 11 at IDST 31, down 35 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 7:154th & 22 at USU 38, down 35 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 0:344th & 2 at IDST 18, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 3:304th & 10 at IDST 18, up 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 9:274th & 13 at NEV 19, up 3 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 9:044th & 7 at NEV 40, up 6 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 0:104th & 2 at NEV 2, up 13 · Kicked a field goal−1.4 pts
- Q3 15:004th & 6 at IDST 29, up 16 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 7:044th & 2 at IDST 25, up 16 · Punted−1.2 pts
- Q3 3:394th & 2 at IDST 44, up 16 · Punted−1.4 pts
- Q4 15:004th & 1 at NEV 32, up 16 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 9:424th & 16 at NEV 44, up 8 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 4:224th & 8 at IDST 31, up 8 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2017
Expected wins adds up Idaho State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2017
Every game starts at Idaho State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard+0.29
- Possession & field position+0.01
- Clock+0.03
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.51
Game by game
- USUL 13-51 at USU2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −3
- NEVW 30-28 at NEV2% → 87%Before kickoff −48 · On the field +86: Scoreboard +32, Clock +3
Points of win probability, from Idaho State's side.
Closest call
IDST 30-28 NEV (2017) - Idaho State dropped to a 1.8% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2017
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Idaho State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2017
The largest single-play change in Idaho State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Idaho State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Idaho State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Idaho State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Idaho State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.