2017 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2017 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadIDST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreIDST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:26 · Ty Flanagan 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:42: Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 3 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:26: Ty Flanagan 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — IDST win probability +1.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:19: Kent Myers run for 23 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:12: Tanner Gueller pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Davis return for 25 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — IDST win probability +0.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:23: Kent Myers run for 36 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6IDST made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 15:00IDST 4th & 1 at USU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.2%70% to convertField goal1.9%−0.228% to makePunt2.0%−0.2average punt
- Q1 10:14USU 4th & 9 at IDST 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.1%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call97.2%70% to makePunt96.8%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:14IDST 4th & 4 at USU 43, down 3Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.8%48% to convertField goal2.7%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call2.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00IDST 4th & 8 at IDST 44, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q2 8:06IDST 4th & 1 at IDST 43, down 25Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it3.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 4:19IDST 4th & 1 at IDST 36, down 32Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:41IDST 4th & 15 at IDST 20, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 10:34USU 4th & 23 at USU 33, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 8:44IDST 4th & 7 at IDST 34, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 7:06USU 4th & 3 at midfield, up 39Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:48USU 4th & 4 at IDST 25, up 32Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−<0.166% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 14:42IDST 4th & 16 at IDST 33, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 11:57USU 4th & 11 at IDST 42, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.127% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.130% to makePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 10:04IDST 4th & 11 at IDST 31, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:15IDST 4th & 22 at USU 38, down 35Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.18% to convertField goal0.1%38% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:18USU 4th & 5 at IDST 5, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%92% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:34IDST 4th & 2 at IDST 18, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6IDST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 5:19USU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:42USU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:26IDST Touchdown, down 11 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick4.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call4.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:19USU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:12USU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:23USU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:41USU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:59IDST Touchdown, down 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIDSTDrive 1DOWNS9 plays · 32 yds · 0:002% → 2%
USUDrive 2FG7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1498% → 98%
IDSTDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 32 yds · 0:002% → 2%
USUDrive 4TD10 plays · 89 yds · 3:2198% → 98%
Q1 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+2
97.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Damion Hobbs for 2 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+13
97.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 13 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+32
97.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 32 yds to the IdaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
97.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 17 yds to the IdaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+7
97.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 7 yds to the IdaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 5INT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:223% → 3%
USUDrive 6TD10 plays · 80 yds · 3:0797% → 98%
Q1 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
97.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 7 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
97.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Dax Raymond for 11 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+34
97.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jaren Colston-Green for 34 yds to the IdaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
97.4%
SCARVER, Savon rush for 3 yards to the ISU10 (HOLLAND), PENALTY USU illegal block 10 yards to the ISU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+22
97.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Dax Raymond for 22 yds to the IdaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 3 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:422% → 2%
USUDrive 8INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
97.8%
Kent Myers pass intercepted Tucker Louie-McGee return for 6 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 9TD6 plays · 23 yds · 1:593% → 4%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
97.3%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Michael Dean for 3 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+11
97.3%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Hagen Graves for 11 yds to the UthSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
97.3%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Tanner Conner for 4 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
97.4%
GUELLER, Tanner pass incomplete to CONNER, Tanner, PENALTY USU pass interference 3 yards to the USU2, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD10 plays · 77 yds · 3:0297% → 98%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
96.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 9 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
96.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for no gain to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+19
96.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Carson Terrell for 19 yds to the IdaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
96.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 9 yds to the IdaSt 29Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
96.7%
MYERS, Kent pass incomplete to COLSTON-GREEN, PENALTY ISU offside 6 yards to the ISU23, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 11INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
97.2%
Tanner Gueller pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Davis return for 25 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 8:06
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+2
97.0%
Sean Cheney punt for 40 yds , Zach Van Leeuwen returns for 2 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD7 plays · 81 yds · 2:0698% → 100%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
97.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Gerold Bright for 6 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+35
97.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Savon Scarver for 35 yds to the IdaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
98.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Zach Van Leeuwen for 13 yds to the IdaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
98.1%
MYERS, Kent pass complete to VAN LEEUWEN, Z. for 13 yards to the ISU14 (LOWE, Koby), PENALTY USU holding 10 yards to the ISU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 14
OPP 31
-5
98.1%
MYERS, Kent pass complete to RAYMOND, Dax for 15 yards to the ISU16 (LOWE, Koby), PENALTY USU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ISU36, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15END OF HALF3 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
USUDrive 16TD10 plays · 80 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
Q3 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+13
99.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 13 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-5
99.6%
MYERS, Kent pass complete to NATHAN, Jordan for 10 yards to the ISU35, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+23
99.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Dax Raymond for 23 yds to the IdaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
99.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 2 yds to the IdaSt 19Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
99.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 19 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 11:41
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Sean Cheney punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Zach Van Leeuwen at the UthSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
99.8%
LOVE, Jordan pass complete to ROBERTS, B. for 2 yards to the USU48 (MONROE, Brandon;MARTIN, Joe), PENALTY USU illegal formation 5 yards to the USU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+2
99.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Eltoro Allen for 2 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-7
99.8%
Jordan Love sacked by Rasheed Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 38 UTAH ST Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 23
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Zach Lee punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kieran Yancy at the IdaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
USUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:06
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
99.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Alex Byers for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 21TD9 plays · 94 yds · 2:390% → 0%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Nate Shubert for 3 yds to the IdaSt 23Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
99.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Michael Dean for 14 yds to the IdaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+18
99.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Hagen Graves for 18 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
99.8%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Michael Dean for 42 yds for a TD, (Parker Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22FG11 plays · 50 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+12
99.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 23PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:42
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Ty Flanagan for 14 yds to the IdaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 15
OWN 34
-1
99.9%
Tanner Gueller sacked by Maika Magalei for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 33Similar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 16
OWN 33
+20
99.9%
Sean Cheney punt for 43 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 20 yds to the UTAHST 47 IDAHO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the IdaSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:57
4TH & 6
OPP 37
-5
99.9%
DALTON, Aaron punt 35 yards to the ISU2, downed, PENALTY USU illegal formation 5 yards to the ISU42, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
99.9%
FLANAGAN, Ty rush for 7 yards to the ISU39 (BAILEY, Wesley), PENALTY ISU holding 10 yards to the ISU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 20
OWN 22
+13
99.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Nehamiah McFarlin for 13 yds to the IdaSt 35Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-4
99.9%
Tanner Gueller sacked by Adewale Adeoye for a loss of 4 yards to the IdaSt 31Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Sean Cheney punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26FUMBLE3 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:56
2ND & 17
OWN 10
0
99.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Gerold Bright UTAH ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 17
OWN 10
+14
99.9%
Eltoro Allen run for 14 yds to the UthSt 26 Eltoro Allen fumbled, forced by Kody Graves, recovered by IdaSt Mario JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 27PUNT6 plays · -12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28FG10 plays · 39 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
100.0%
DJ Nelson run for a loss of 3 yards to the IdaSt 7 DJ Nelson fumbled, recovered by UthSt DJ NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 29PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 0:34
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+8
100.0%
Sean Cheney punt for 47 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 8 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:26
Ty Flanagan 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-1.5
TD · Q2 4:23
Kent Myers run for 36 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q2 8:19
Kent Myers run for 23 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
+0.9