Howard
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2014
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Howard allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Howard.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Howard's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.01 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at RUTGQ3 3:06 4th & 21 at HOW 12, down 18Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.1 pts
- at AKRQ2 12:52 4th & 3 at AKR 45, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
- at AKRQ3 8:33 4th & 16 at AKR 42, down 28Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.2 pts
- at AKRQ3 13:24 4th & 2 at HOW 16, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
- at RUTGQ1 4:29 4th & 2 at HOW 43, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at AKRQ1 11:19 4th & 3 at HOW 25, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at RUTGQ4 2:45 4th & 14 at HOW 5, down 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (18)
- Q1 15:004th & 6 at HOW 29, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 11:194th & 3 at HOW 25, down 14 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 9:344th & 5 at HOW 47, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 2:424th & 7 at HOW 6, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:524th & 3 at AKR 45, down 21 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 6:264th & 9 at HOW 20, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 13:244th & 2 at HOW 16, down 21 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 8:334th & 1 at AKR 37, down 28 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 8:334th & 16 at AKR 42, down 28 · Went for itClose call
- Q4 15:004th & 1 at AKR 32, down 34 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 12:494th & 4 at HOW 26, down 34 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 9:364th & 5 at HOW 30, down 41 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 4:294th & 2 at HOW 43, up 4 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 15:004th & 5 at HOW 30, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 10:174th & 20 at HOW 25, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 14:534th & 11 at midfield, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 3:064th & 21 at HOW 12, down 18 · Went for it−1.1 pts
- Q4 2:454th & 14 at HOW 5, down 13 · PuntedClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2014
Expected wins adds up Howard's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2014
Every game starts at Howard's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.15
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.08
Game by game
- AKRL 0-41 at AKR8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −10
- RUTGL 25-38 at RUTG1% → 1%Before kickoff −49 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −5
Points of win probability, from Howard's side.
Closest call
HOW 43-40 UNLV (2017) - Howard dropped to a 0.7% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2014
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Howard's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2014
The largest single-play change in Howard's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Howard's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Howard's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Howard's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Howard's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.