Holy Cross
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2019
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Holy Cross allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Holy Cross.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Holy Cross's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at NAVYQ2 11:21 4th & 3 at NAVY 6, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
- at NAVYQ3 10:56 4th & 14 at NAVY 35, down 24Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.2 pts
- at NAVYQ3 4:27 4th & 1 at NAVY 43, down 31Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
- at SYRQ2 2:46 4th & 3 at HC 47, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at NAVYQ4 8:56 4th & 1 at HC 17, down 38Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
Every call this season (21)
- Q1 10:424th & 13 at HC 22, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 5:564th & 12 at NAVY 49, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 11:214th & 3 at NAVY 6, down 10 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q3 10:564th & 14 at NAVY 35, down 24 · Went for itClose call
- Q3 4:274th & 1 at NAVY 43, down 31 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 14:524th & 10 at HC 41, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 8:564th & 1 at HC 17, down 38 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 15:004th & 12 at HC 23, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 11:464th & 4 at HC 31, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 4:404th & 6 at SYR 39, down 14 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 12:494th & 8 at SYR 31, down 17 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 10:094th & 16 at HC 30, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 2:464th & 3 at HC 47, down 21 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 13:284th & 10 at HC 11, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 8:464th & 12 at HC 9, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 5:374th & 20 at HC 15, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 15:004th & 4 at HC 31, down 31 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:404th & 15 at HC 20, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 12:434th & 19 at HC 14, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 11:114th & 4 at SYR 32, down 38 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 1:564th & 1 at SYR 33, down 38 · Went for itAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2019
Expected wins adds up Holy Cross's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2019
Every game starts at Holy Cross's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.13
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.04
Game by game
- NAVYL 7-45 at NAVY8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −11
- SYRL 3-41 at SYR1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
Points of win probability, from Holy Cross's side.
Closest call
HC 37-31 BUF (2022) - Holy Cross dropped to a 4.7% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2019
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Holy Cross's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2019
The largest single-play change in Holy Cross's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Holy Cross's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Holy Cross's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Holy Cross's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Holy Cross's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.