2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · JMA Wireless Dome
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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadHC aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreHC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Cody Wilkinson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:46: Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 14 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — HC win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 8:25: Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 17 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q2 12:49: Derek Ng 48 yd FG GOOD — HC win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: HC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:09: Abdul Adams 19 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick) — SYR win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:15: Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 47 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 7 of 10HC made the numbers' call on 13 of 14
- Q1 15:00HC 4th & 12 at HC 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 11:46HC 4th & 4 at HC 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q1 10:02SYR 4th & 4 at SYR 38, up 7Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:40HC 4th & 6 at SYR 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.9%40% to convertField goal1.8%−0.136% to makePunt1.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:05SYR 4th & 7 at HC 34, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snapGo for it98.1%37% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%−<0.147% to makePunt98.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:49HC 4th & 8 at SYR 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call1.9%54% to makePunt1.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:09SYR 4th & 4 at HC 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.6%47% to convertField goal97.6%−<0.177% to makePunt96.9%−0.7average punt
- Q2 10:09HC 4th & 16 at HC 30, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.115% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 8:20SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 35, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%average punt
- Q2 2:46HC 4th & 3 at HC 47, down 21Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:23SYR 4th & 18 at SYR 27, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.412% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%average punt
- Q3 15:00SYR 4th & 7 at midfield, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%average punt
- Q3 13:28HC 4th & 10 at HC 11, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.227% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q3 11:50SYR 4th & 11 at HC 45, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.127% to convertField goal98.7%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call98.8%average punt
- Q3 8:46HC 4th & 12 at HC 9, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.221% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q3 5:37SYR 4th & 3 at HC 8, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%47% to convertField goalTheir call98.7%−0.190% to makePunt97.9%−0.8average punt
- Q3 5:37HC 4th & 20 at HC 15, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.49% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00HC 4th & 4 at HC 31, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:40HC 4th & 15 at HC 20, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 12:43HC 4th & 19 at HC 14, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:11HC 4th & 4 at SYR 32, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%48% to convertField goal0.0%−0.151% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:18SYR 4th & 5 at HC 38, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%42% to convertField goal99.8%−0.138% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:56HC 4th & 1 at SYR 33, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.149% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:51SYR 4th & 4 at SYR 39, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 11:46SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:25SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:09SYR Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:15SYR Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:40SYR Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHCDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
SYRDrive 2TD7 plays · 63 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
98.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 12 yds to the Syrac 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+19
98.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 19 yds to the HCrss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
98.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 14 yds to the HCrss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
98.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 14 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:46
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
98.8%
Cody Wilkinson punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Syrac 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 10:02
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+5
98.6%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 50 yds , Jon Jon Roberts returns for 5 yds to the HCrss 17 Jon Jon Roberts fumbled, forced by Aaron Bolinsky, recovered by Syrac Tyrell RichardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5TD1 play · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
98.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 17 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 6DOWNS10 plays · 36 yds · 3:451% → 2%
SYRDrive 7FG7 plays · 27 yds · 1:4499% → 99%
Q1 3:49
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
98.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 7 yds to the HCrss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 8FG10 plays · 44 yds · 4:162% → 2%
Q1 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
98.5%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Tenio Ayeni for 27 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
98.4%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Jordan Forrest for 1 yd to the Syrac 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
98.4%
Connor Degenhardt pass incomplete to Dominik Thomas, broken up by Alton RobinsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+14
98.5%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Dominik Thomas for 14 yds to the Syrac 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-2
98.4%
Connor Degenhardt sacked by Brandon Berry and Lakiem Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9TD11 plays · 58 yds · 2:4098% → 99%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
98.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 23 yds to the HCrss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
98.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 5 yds to the HCrss 20Similar
Q2 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
98.0%
SYRACUSE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Syrac 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
SYRDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-2
99.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Abdul Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 35Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
98.9%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jon Jon Roberts at the HCrss 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 4:201% → 1%
Q2 7:06
3RD & 17
OWN 7
+15
98.8%
SYRACUSE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the HCrss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
98.7%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Spencer Gilliam for 3 yds to the HCrss 25 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the HCrss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
98.7%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Tenio Ayeni for 6 yds to the HCrss 46Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+3
98.7%
Cody Wilkinson punt for 34 yds , Sean Riley returns for 3 yds to the Syrac 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 1:0899% → 99%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
99.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Moe Neal for a loss of 6 yards to the Syrac 29Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 16
OWN 29
-2
99.1%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Thomas Kiessling for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 27Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
99.1%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jon Jon Roberts at the HCrss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 14END OF HALF7 plays · 12 yds · 0:401% → 1%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Connor Degenhardt pass incomplete to Tenio Ayeni, broken up by Carl JonesSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+12
99.2%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Tenio Ayeni for 12 yds to the HCrss 39Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+6
99.0%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Spencer Gilliam for 6 yds to the HCrss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+12
98.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 12 yds to the Syrac 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
50
0
99.0%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Trishton Jackson, broken up by Walter ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
50
0
98.9%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jon Jon Roberts at the HCrss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
SYRDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
HCDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:261% → 1%
SYRDrive 19FG7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5499% → 99%
Q3 8:31
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+8
99.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 8 yds to the HCrss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:37
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+5
99.1%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Derek Mountain for 5 yds to the HCrss 23Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-8
99.1%
Connor Degenhardt sacked by Kingsley Jonathan for a loss of 8 yards to the HCrss 15Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
99.1%
Cody Wilkinson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21TD5 plays · 63 yds · 1:4499% → 100%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 6 yds to the Syrac 43Similar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sharod Johnson for no gain to the Syrac 47Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+47
99.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 47 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:150% → 0%
SYRDrive 23TD1 play · 70 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
99.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Benson for 70 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 24PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
Connor Degenhardt sacked by Brandon Berry for a loss of 5 yards to the HCrss 20Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Connor Degenhardt pass incomplete to Tenio Ayeni, broken up by Christopher FredrickSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Cody Wilkinson punt for 51 yds , Sean Riley returns for no gain to the Syrac 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25INT3 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
HCDrive 26PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:43
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-8
100.0%
Emmett Clifford sacked by Brandon Berry and Mikel Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the HCrss 14 Emmett Clifford fumbled, recovered by HCrss Peter Oliver , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 19
OWN 14
0
100.0%
Cody Wilkinson punt for 46 yds , Nykeim Johnson returns for no gain to the Syrac 38 Nykeim Johnson fumbled, recovered by HCrss Terrell PrinceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 27DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
100.0%
Emmett Clifford pass complete to Derek Mountain for 6 yds to the Syrac 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 28FUMBLE12 plays · 41 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Clayton Welch pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 2 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
Clayton Welch pass complete to Taj Harris for 3 yds to the Syrac 46Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+9
99.9%
Clayton Welch pass complete to Jarveon Howard for 9 yds to the HCrss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+11
99.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 11 yds to the HCrss 27 Jawhar Jordan fumbled, forced by Team, recovered by HCrss Jacob DobbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 29DOWNS10 plays · 40 yds · 5:190% → 0%
Q4 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+10
100.0%
Emmett Clifford pass complete to Cole Pirwitz for 10 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 30DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:51
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+3
100.0%
Clayton Welch pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 3 yds to the Syrac 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:09
Abdul Adams 19 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)
+0.9
TD · Q3 1:15
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 47 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+0.5
FG · Q2 12:49
Derek Ng 48 yd FG GOOD
-0.3