Try the model
HC

Holy Cross 20 at UConn 27

CONN
2017 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2017 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadHC aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreHC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:21 · Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:39: A.J. Wells 20 yd FG GOOD — HC win probability +4.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: HC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:35: Diquan Walker run for 6 yds for a TD, (A.J. Wells KICK) — HC win probability +8.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: HC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:15: Nate Hopkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK) — CONN win probability +21.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 12:02: Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK) — CONN win probability +16.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:27: Nate Hopkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt PAT MISSED) — CONN win probability +17.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8HC made the numbers' call on 7 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:35HC 4th & 12 at HC 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:14CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:00HC 4th & 8 at CONN 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:32HC 4th & 4 at CONN 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.5%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00HC 4th & 9 at HC 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:10HC 4th & 5 at CONN 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:04CONN 4th & 13 at CONN 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:39HC 4th & 2 at CONN 3, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.9%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:35CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:20HC 4th & 17 at HC 23, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−4.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:31CONN 4th & 6 at HC 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    63.3%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:41HC 4th & 4 at CONN 21, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−11.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:41CONN 4th & 2 at HC 6, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%−1.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−7.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:45HC 4th & 8 at HC 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−2.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:21CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:40HC 4th & 1 at HC 29, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%−3.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00HC 4th & 8 at HC 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−2.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:02HC 4th & 10 at CONN 37, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−1.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:13CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:27HC 4th & 4 at CONN 13, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%−1.7
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−11.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4HC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:10CONN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:04HC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:35HC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:15CONN Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:02CONN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.8
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:27CONN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.3%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 6 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
93.3%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 3 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
93.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
93.3%
Brett Graham punt for 42 yds, downed at the HCrss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.9%
Peter Pujals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.9%
PUJALS, Peter pass complete to MONTGOMERY, Jor for 40 yards to the UCONN35 (BRITTON, Chris), PENALTY HC ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the HC20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-6
92.9%
Peter Pujals sacked by Chris Britton for a loss of 6 yards to the HCrss 14Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-5
93.0%
HOLY CROSS Penalty, false start (Nick Piker) to the HCrss 9Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+14
93.0%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Blaise Bell for 14 yds to the HCrss 23Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
93.0%
Will McGrail punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:1993% → 92%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
92.5%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 27Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+10
92.4%
David Pindell pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 10 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+4
92.5%
Nate Hopkins run for 4 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
92.5%
Nate Hopkins run for no gain to the UConn 41Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
92.5%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for no gain to the UConn 41Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
91.9%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Hergy MayalaSimilar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
91.8%
Brett Graham punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Richie DeNicola at the HCrss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 4FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 5:288% → 10%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
91.7%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Martin Dorsey for 13 yds to the HCrss 33 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the HCrss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
91.6%
Diquan Walker run for 3 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
91.5%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Martin Dorsey, broken up by Jamar SummersSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+7
91.6%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Richie DeNicola for 7 yds to the UConn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
91.5%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Jordan Montgomery for 2 yds to the UConn 40Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-5
91.5%
PUJALS, Peter pass complete to DENICOLA, Richi for 9 yards to the UCONN31 (SUMMERS, Jamar), PENALTY HC ineligible downfield on pass (DENNIS, Jackson) 5 yards to the UCONN45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+5
91.6%
Richie DeNicola run for 5 yds to the UConn 40Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
91.6%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Richie DeNicolaSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+15
91.7%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Jordan Montgomery for 15 yds to the UConn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
91.5%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Martin Dorsey for 11 yds to the UConn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
91.5%
Diquan Walker run for 1 yd to the UConn 13Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
91.5%
Peter Pujals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+5
91.6%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Richie DeNicola for 5 yds to the UConn 8Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
89.6%
A.J. Wells 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:2290% → 91%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
89.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 6 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+5
89.8%
David Pindell run for 5 yds to the UConn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.9%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 40Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
89.7%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 18 yds to the HCrss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
90.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the HCrss 42Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
90.1%
David Pindell pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 12 yds to the HCrss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
90.3%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 6 yds to the HCrss 24Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
90.3%
David Pindell run for 10 yds to the HCrss 14 CONNECTICUT Penalty, IB (-10 Yards) to the HCrss 24Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+18
90.3%
David Pindell pass complete to Alec Bloom for 18 yds to the HCrss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 0
OPP 6
-5
90.5%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the HCrss 11Similar
Q1 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
90.5%
Nate Hopkins 11 Yd Run (Michael Tarbutt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:1010% → 10%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.0%
Domenic Cozier run for 4 yds to the HCrss 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
89.8%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Richie DeNicolaSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
90.0%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Richie DeNicola for 13 yds to the HCrss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
89.6%
Domenic Cozier run for 1 yd to the HCrss 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
89.6%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Blaise BellSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
89.8%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Jordan MontgomerySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
90.1%
Will McGrail punt for 44 yds , Jordan Swann returns for no gain to the UConn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
89.3%
David Pindell pass complete to Quayvon Skanes for 8 yds to the UConn 21Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+11
89.4%
David Pindell run for 11 yds to the UConn 34 David Pindell fumbled, forced by Phil Zobrest, recovered by HCrss Nick McBeathSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 8TD
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:0612% → 16%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
88.4%
Miles Alexander run for no gain to the UConn 34Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
88.5%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Martin Dorsey, broken up by Jamar SummersSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+5
88.8%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Richie DeNicola for 5 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+13
89.2%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Jordan Montgomery for 13 yds to the UConn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
88.4%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Miles Alexander for 4 yds to the UConn 12Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+8
88.4%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Blaise Bell for 8 yds to the UConn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-15
88.3%
PUJALS, Peter pass incomplete to MONTGOMERY, Jor, PENALTY HC pass interference (MONTGOMERY, Jor) 15 yards to the UCONN19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+19
84.0%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Blaise Bell for 19 yds for a TD, (A.J. Wells KICK) CONNECTICUT Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
85.9%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 25Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
85.6%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Quayvon SkanesSimilar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
85.2%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Hergy Mayala, broken up by Ahmad TylerSimilar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
85.0%
Brett Graham punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HCrss 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 10FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 4:3016% → 22%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
84.0%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Jordan Montgomery for 7 yds to the HCrss 45Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
83.8%
Peter Pujals run for 2 yds to the HCrss 47Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
83.9%
Diquan Walker run for 5 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
83.6%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Richie DeNicola for 5 yds to the UConn 43Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
83.6%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Richie DeNicola, broken up by Marshe TerrySimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+11
81.9%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Richie DeNicola for 11 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
81.5%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Blaise Bell for 21 yds to the UConn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
81.5%
Gabe Guild run for 3 yds to the UConn 8Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+5
81.5%
Gabe Guild run for 5 yds to the UConn 3Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 2
OPP 3
0
81.7%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Richie DeNicolaSimilar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+20
76.9%
A.J. Wells 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-5
77.8%
WILKINSON, Cody kickoff 60 yards to the UCONN5, SWANN, Jordan return to the UCONN22 (BUCCERONI, Kevi), PENALTY HC offside 5 yards to the HC30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 12TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:4625% → 34%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
75.0%
HOLY CROSS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UConn 26Similar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 15
OPP 26
0
75.2%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Richie DeNicolaSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+20
75.4%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Blaise Bell for 20 yds to the UConn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
66.5%
Diquan Walker run for 6 yds for a TD, (A.J. Wells KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
71.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 35Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+5
70.7%
David Pindell pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 5 yds to the UConn 40Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
70.9%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Keyion DixonSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
70.8%
Brett Graham punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Richie DeNicola at the HCrss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1733% → 37%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
66.7%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Richie DeNicola for 14 yds to the HCrss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-11
66.4%
Team run for a loss of 11 yards to the HCrss 19 Team fumbled, recovered by HCrss Diquan WalkerSimilar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 21
OWN 19
+4
67.1%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Jordan Montgomery for 4 yds to the HCrss 23Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 17
OWN 23
0
62.2%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Jordan MontgomerySimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 17
OWN 23
0
62.7%
Will McGrail punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UConn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:3668% → 66%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
67.5%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 5 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
68.1%
David Pindell pass complete to Aaron McLean for 6 yds to the HCrss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
68.4%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 7 yds to the HCrss 40Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 3
OPP 40
-3
68.6%
David Pindell run for a loss of 3 yards to the HCrss 43Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
67.1%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Quayvon SkanesSimilar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+2
66.1%
David Pindell run for 2 yds to the HCrss 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
56.3%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the HCrss 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:1939% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
61.0%
PUJALS, Peter pass incomplete, PENALTY UCONN holding (CARREZOLA, Luke) 10 yards to the HC31, 1ST DOWN HC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
60.7%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Blaise Bell for 10 yds to the HCrss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
59.6%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Richie DeNicola for 11 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
59.4%
Domenic Cozier run for 21 yds to the UConn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
59.1%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Domenic CozierSimilar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
59.3%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Jordan Montgomery for 4 yds to the UConn 23Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+2
59.4%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Richie DeNicola for 2 yds to the UConn 21Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
55.3%
A.J. Wells 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 73 yds · 0:0058% → 60%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
58.2%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Alec BloomSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
58.1%
David Pindell pass complete to Junior Joseph for 2 yds to the UConn 23Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+6
57.1%
David Pindell pass complete to Aaron McLean for 6 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 2
OWN 29
+5
58.1%
GRAHAM, Brett punt 33 yards to the HC38, out-of-bounds, PENALTY HC roughing the kicker (BUCCERONI, Kevi) 5 yards to the UCONN34, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.9%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Hergy Mayala, broken up by Alim MuhammadSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+28
58.8%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 28 yds to the HCrss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
60.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 5 yds to the HCrss 33Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+19
62.4%
Nate Hopkins run for 19 yds to the HCrss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
62.4%
Nate Hopkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the HCrss 15Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+3
62.3%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 3 yds to the HCrss 12Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+6
60.5%
David Pindell run for 6 yds to the HCrss 6Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 2
OPP 6
0
59.8%
Nate Hopkins run for no gain to the HCrss 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+16
47.3%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Derek Mountain for 16 yds to the HCrss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
46.1%
Miles Alexander run for 3 yds to the HCrss 25Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+4
45.9%
Miles Alexander run for 4 yds to the HCrss 29Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-5
46.6%
Peter Pujals sacked by Cole Ormsby for a loss of 5 yards to the HCrss 24Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
47.5%
Will McGrail punt for 75 yds, downed at the UConn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
44.6%
Nate Hopkins run for 5 yds to the UConn 6Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+37
44.3%
Nate Hopkins run for 37 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
46.8%
Nate Hopkins run for 2 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
46.9%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Hergy MayalaSimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
45.3%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Hergy Mayala, broken up by Damion BakerSimilar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+5
45.2%
Brett Graham punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HCrss 20 , Richie DeNicola returns for 5 yds to the HCrss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
33.3%
Gabe Guild run for 2 yds to the HCrss 22Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
33.3%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Richie DeNicola, broken up by Brice McAllisterSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-3
34.0%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Blaise Bell for 7 yds to the HCrss 29 HOLY CROSS Penalty, Offensive holding (Rory Costello) to the HCrss 19Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+10
34.2%
Peter Pujals run for 10 yds to the HCrss 29Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+18
34.3%
Will McGrail punt for 42 yds , Jordan Swann returns for 18 yds to the UConn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:1838% → 63%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
37.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Keyion Dixon for no gain to the UConn 47Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
37.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 15 yds to the HCrss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
39.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 7 yds to the HCrss 31Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+28
41.6%
Nate Hopkins run for 28 yds to the HCrss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.8%
Nate Hopkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:1552% → 49%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.9%
Diquan Walker run for 1 yd to the HCrss 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
47.6%
Peter Pujals run for 1 yd to the HCrss 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
48.8%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Richie DeNicolaSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
50.7%
Will McGrail punt for 32 yds, downed at the UConn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:2758% → 78%
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Hergy MayalaSimilar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+24
55.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Aaron McLean for 24 yds to the HCrss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
61.7%
Nate Hopkins run for 3 yds to the HCrss 32Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
61.9%
Nate Hopkins run for no gain to the HCrss 32Similar
Q4 14:29
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+22
59.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 22 yds to the HCrss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
61.9%
Jason Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the HCrss 11Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
61.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Hergy Mayala, broken up by Alim MuhammadSimilar
Q4 12:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
78.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.3%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Blaise Bell for 8 yds to the HCrss 33Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
70.1%
Domenic Cozier run for 16 yds to the HCrss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
68.2%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Richie DeNicola, broken up by Anthony WatkinsSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+14
68.9%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Jordan Montgomery for 14 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
67.9%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Jordan MontgomerySimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
68.0%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Richie DeNicolaSimilar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
69.1%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Martin DorseySimilar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
72.2%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Derek MountainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
74.6%
Nate Hopkins run for 4 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
76.2%
Nate Hopkins run for 1 yd to the UConn 42Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
74.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Hergy Mayala, broken up by Akeem WalcottSimilar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
72.6%
Brett Graham punt for 41 yds , Richie DeNicola returns for no gain to the HCrss 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 27FUMBLE
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
69.8%
HOLY CROSS Penalty, false start (Derek Mountain) to the HCrss 12Similar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+19
70.2%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Derek Mountain for 19 yds to the HCrss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
69.0%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Blaise Bell for 17 yds Blaise Bell fumbled, forced by Tre Bell, recovered by UConn Santana SterlingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 28TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:0076% → 93%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
76.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Hergy MayalaSimilar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+34
75.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 34 yds to the HCrss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
77.8%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the HCrss 9Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
77.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Quayvon Skanes for 5 yds to the HCrss 4Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
76.1%
Nate Hopkins run for 3 yds to the HCrss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Nate Hopkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 60 yds · 0:0010% → 12%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
89.7%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Richie DeNicola for 14 yds to the HCrss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
87.8%
Gabe Guild run for a loss of 1 yard to the HCrss 38Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+20
88.7%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Martin Dorsey for 20 yds to the UConn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
86.4%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Martin DorseySimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+23
86.5%
Gabe Guild run for 23 yds to the UConn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
84.9%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Richie DeNicolaSimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+6
85.2%
Peter Pujals pass complete to Blaise Bell for 6 yds to the UConn 13Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
86.4%
Peter Pujals pass incomplete to Jordan MontgomerySimilar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 4
OPP 13
-2
87.8%
Peter Pujals run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 30END OF GAME
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:2594% → 97%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
94.0%
Nate Hopkins run for 1 yd to the UConn 16Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+3
93.9%
Nate Hopkins run for 3 yds to the UConn 19Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+6
93.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 6 yds to the UConn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.9%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
95.0%
Nate Hopkins run for 6 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
96.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 34Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-2
96.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:15
Nate Hopkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK)
+21.2
TD · Q4 6:27
Nate Hopkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt PAT MISSED)
+17.3
TD · Q4 12:02
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK)
+16.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com