Gardner-Webb

Drives vs. expectation, 2017

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Gardner-Webb allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.

Game by game

1. L
   WYO

Bars above the line: better than expected for Gardner-Webb.

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Gardner-Webb's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at WYOQ2 1:54 4th & 1 at GWEB 33, down 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
2. at WYOQ2 12:57 4th & 2 at GWEB 48, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
3. at WYOQ4 12:42 4th & 2 at GWEB 37, down 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2017

Expected wins adds up Gardner-Webb's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   WYO

What moved it, 2017

Every game starts at Gardner-Webb's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.01

Game by game

• WYOL 0-27 at WYO1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2

Points of win probability, from Gardner-Webb's side.