2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · War Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadGWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreGWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:43 · Andrew Komornik punt for 57 yds, downed at the Wyom 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:55: Kellen Overstreet run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — GWEB win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:36: Josh Allen pass complete to John Okwoli for 8 yds to the GrdWb 29 — WYO win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:27: Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 29 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:27: Tyrell Maxwell run for 6 yds to the GrdWb 31 — GWEB win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 15:00: A.J. Moses run for 3 yds to the Wyom 26 — WYO win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 8GWEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 9:55GWEB 4th & 14 at GWEB 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 4:43GWEB 4th & 6 at GWEB 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 15:00WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 41, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%average punt
- Q2 12:57GWEB 4th & 2 at GWEB 48, down 14Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:41WYO 4th & 5 at GWEB 11, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.8%37% to convertField goalTheir call96.8%−<0.187% to makePunt95.9%−1.0average punt
- Q2 6:41GWEB 4th & 10 at GWEB 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q2 5:45WYO 4th & 5 at GWEB 43, up 17Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.7%42% to convertField goal97.5%−0.228% to makePuntTheir call97.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:54GWEB 4th & 1 at GWEB 33, down 17Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it3.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 12:36GWEB 4th & 14 at GWEB 36, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q3 11:53WYO 4th & 5 at GWEB 44, up 24Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%41% to convertField goal98.5%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call98.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00GWEB 4th & 4 at WYO 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%48% to convertField goal0.8%−<0.164% to makePunt0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 14:12WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 29, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q4 12:42GWEB 4th & 2 at GWEB 37, down 24Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 8:12WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 49, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q4 6:42WYO 4th & 8 at GWEB 44, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%34% to convertField goal99.2%−0.127% to makePunt99.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:52WYO 4th & 12 at GWEB 12, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call99.5%86% to makePunt99.1%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:55WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:43WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:27WYO Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0599% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.8%
GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
98.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 11 yds to the GrdWb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
98.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 11 yds to the GrdWb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+7
98.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 7 yds to the GrdWb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+10
98.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 10 yds to the GrdWb 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+8
98.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 8 yds to the GrdWb 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 9:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-7
98.4%
Tyrell Maxwell sacked by Kevin Prosser for a loss of 7 yards to the GrdWb 21Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
98.4%
Andrew Komornik punt for 43 yds , Austin Conway returns for no gain to the Wyom 21 WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Wyom 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3TD6 plays · 74 yds · 3:0498% → 98%
Q1 7:47
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+34
98.2%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 34 yds to the GrdWb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
98.3%
Josh Allen pass complete to Avante' Cox for no gain to the GrdWb 41Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
98.3%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 11 yds to the GrdWb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+27
98.4%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 27 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT10 plays · 40 yds · 1:5398% → 98%
Q1 1:53
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+23
98.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 23 yds to the Wyom 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+11
98.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 11 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+6
98.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 6 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
98.0%
Tim Zaleski punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jacob Henderson at the GrdWb 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 12:57
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+12
97.7%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to James Ellis II for 12 yds to the GrdWb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7FG7 plays · 69 yds · 3:1098% → 98%
GWEBDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Tyrell Maxwell pass incomplete to James Ellis II, broken up by Logan WilsonSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Tyrell Maxwell pass incomplete to James Ellis II, broken up by Rico GaffordSimilar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Andrew Komornik punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 5:45
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
98.1%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Milo Hall, broken up by Triston DozierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 29 yds · 1:482% → 3%
Q2 1:54
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+45
97.4%
Andrew Komornik punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GrdWb 37 , Austin Conway returns for 45 yds to the GrdWb 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11TD2 plays · 37 yds · 0:0998% → 99%
GWEBDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
GWEBDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 11 yds · 2:241% → 1%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Tyrell Maxwell pass incomplete to James Ellis II, broken up by Robert PriesterSimilar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-7
98.8%
Tyrell Maxwell sacked by Kevin Prosser for a loss of 7 yards to the GrdWb 36Similar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
98.8%
Andrew Komornik punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
GWEBDrive 15DOWNS19 plays · 70 yds · 8:431% → 1%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
99.0%
Kerry Bernard run for 2 yds to the GrdWb 6 Kerry Bernard fumbled, forced by Rico Gafford, recovered by GrdWb Brandon LeaheySimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
98.9%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Kyle Horton for 10 yds to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
98.8%
Tyrell Maxwell sacked by Ravontae Holt for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
GWEBDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:42
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+8
99.4%
Andrew Komornik punt for 39 yds , Austin Conway returns for 8 yds to the Wyom 45 WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Wyom 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 2:1999% → 100%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
99.4%
Josh Allen pass complete to John Okwoli for 9 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+16
99.5%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 16 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Tim Zaleski punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jacob Henderson at the GrdWb 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 19INT4 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Tyrell Maxwell pass intercepted Andrew Wingard return for no gain to the GrdWb 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20FG10 plays · 34 yds · 4:50100% → 100%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+31
99.7%
Josh Allen pass complete to Garrett Crall for 31 yds to the GrdWb 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
99.8%
ALLEN, Josh pass complete to HARSHMAN, Josh for 2 yards to the GWU0, clock 02:05, PENALTY WY holding 10 yards to the GWU12, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 21END OF GAME5 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:27
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 29 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+1.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:36
Josh Allen pass complete to John Okwoli for 8 yds to the GrdWb 29
+0.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 15:00
A.J. Moses run for 3 yds to the Wyom 26
+0.5