Gardner-Webb
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2019
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Gardner-Webb allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Gardner-Webb.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Gardner-Webb's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at CLTQ2 1:38 4th & 4 at CLT 41, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
- at CLTQ3 9:33 4th & 9 at CLT 23, down 21Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.2 pts
- at CLTQ2 15:00 4th & 2 at GWEB 19, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at CLTQ4 10:40 4th & 4 at GWEB 10, down 28Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (18)
- Q1 12:364th & 14 at GWEB 14, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 7:454th & 9 at GWEB 48, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 15:004th & 2 at GWEB 19, down 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 3:444th & 10 at GWEB 35, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:384th & 4 at CLT 41, down 21 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 9:334th & 9 at CLT 23, down 21 · Went for itClose call
- Q3 2:284th & 14 at GWEB 21, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:154th & 12 at GWEB 40, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 10:404th & 4 at GWEB 10, down 28 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 10:404th & 23 at GWEB 12, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 7:044th & 15 at GWEB 20, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 8:224th & 17 at GWEB 18, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 12:374th & 9 at ECU 42, down 31 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 9:144th & 19 at GWEB 34, down 29 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 5:254th & 17 at GWEB 8, down 29 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:484th & 5 at GWEB 19, down 29 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 8:574th & 7 at GWEB 28, down 32 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 4:334th & 8 at GWEB 43, down 39 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2019
Expected wins adds up Gardner-Webb's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2019
Every game starts at Gardner-Webb's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.10
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.05
Game by game
- CLTL 28-49 at CLT3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −5
- ECUL 9-48 at ECU2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −4
Points of win probability, from Gardner-Webb's side.
Season arc, 2019
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Gardner-Webb's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2019
The largest single-play change in Gardner-Webb's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Gardner-Webb's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Gardner-Webb's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Gardner-Webb's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Gardner-Webb's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.