Eastern Kentucky
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2018
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Eastern Kentucky allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Eastern Kentucky.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Eastern Kentucky's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.01 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at BGSUQ4 12:04 4th & 3 at EKU 26, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
- at MRSHQ2 9:24 4th & 3 at EKU 17, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at MRSHQ2 13:17 4th & 3 at EKU 37, down 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at MRSHQ4 4:19 4th & 12 at MRSH 12, down 17Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (16)
- Q1 15:004th & 15 at EKU 24, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 11:374th & 14 at MRSH 41, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 13:174th & 3 at EKU 37, down 13 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 9:244th & 3 at EKU 17, down 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 0:044th & 1 at MRSH 30, down 14 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 4:174th & 7 at MRSH 25, down 14 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 15:004th & 1 at EKU 44, down 14 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 15:004th & 11 at EKU 47, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 4:194th & 12 at MRSH 12, down 17 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 14:184th & 2 at EKU 35, up 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 15:004th & 6 at EKU 39, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 8:474th & 7 at EKU 36, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 1:314th & 3 at BGSU 27, down 6 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 12:044th & 3 at EKU 26, up 1 · Punted−1.3 pts
- Q4 6:474th & 10 at EKU 42, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 3:004th & 4 at EKU 38, down 7 · Went for itAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2018
Expected wins adds up Eastern Kentucky's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2018
Every game starts at Eastern Kentucky's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.24
- Possession & field position+0.01
- Clock−0.01
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.20
Game by game
- MRSHL 16-32 at MRSH2% → 1%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −6
- BGSUL 35-42 at BGSU15% → 13%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −18, Possession & field position +1
Points of win probability, from Eastern Kentucky's side.
Closest call
EKU 59-57 BGSU (2022) - Eastern Kentucky dropped to a 7.3% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2018
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Eastern Kentucky's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2018
The largest single-play change in Eastern Kentucky's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Eastern Kentucky's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Eastern Kentucky's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Eastern Kentucky's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Eastern Kentucky's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.