Eastern Kentucky
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2016
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Eastern Kentucky allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Eastern Kentucky.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2016
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Eastern Kentucky's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.04 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at PURQ3 2:41 4th & 1 at EKU 14, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
- at PURQ3 6:42 4th & 1 at EKU 11, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
- at PURQ2 6:07 4th & 2 at PUR 17, down 20Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
- at PURQ3 15:00 4th & 2 at EKU 45, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
- at PURQ4 4:23 4th & 2 at EKU 42, down 27Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (18)
- Q2 12:364th & 7 at EKU 9, down 13 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 6:074th & 2 at PUR 17, down 20 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 1:354th & 19 at EKU 37, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 15:004th & 2 at EKU 45, down 10 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 11:244th & 5 at EKU 45, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 6:424th & 1 at EKU 11, down 10 · Punted−1.1 pts
- Q3 2:414th & 1 at EKU 14, down 10 · Punted−1.4 pts
- Q4 12:484th & 5 at EKU 28, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 4:234th & 2 at EKU 42, down 27 · Went for itClose call
- Q1 15:004th & 4 at BALL 27, tied · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 8:084th & 13 at EKU 38, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 10:554th & 19 at EKU 16, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 7:344th & 16 at EKU 37, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 4:234th & 8 at EKU 40, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 12:054th & 7 at EKU 15, down 27 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 5:114th & 7 at EKU 48, down 34 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 15:004th & 16 at EKU 32, down 34 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 12:464th & 15 at BALL 43, down 34 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
- at BALLQ4 1:26 Touchdown, down 28 before the tryKicked; the numbers favored going for two (close call)<0.1 pts
- at PURQ1 0:50 Touchdown, down 15 before the tryWent for two; the numbers favored kicking (close call)<0.1 pts
- at BALLQ4 3:29 Touchdown, down 35 before the tryKicked; the numbers favored going for two (close call)<0.1 pts
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2016
Expected wins adds up Eastern Kentucky's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2016
Every game starts at Eastern Kentucky's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.37
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.07
Game by game
- PURL 24-45 at PUR14% → 0%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −17
- BALLL 14-41 at BALL17% → 0%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −19
Points of win probability, from Eastern Kentucky's side.
Closest call
EKU 59-57 BGSU (2022) - Eastern Kentucky dropped to a 7.3% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2016
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Eastern Kentucky's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2016
The largest single-play change in Eastern Kentucky's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Eastern Kentucky's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Eastern Kentucky's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Eastern Kentucky's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Eastern Kentucky's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.