East Texas A&M
- SRS
- −34.0 (#222)
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2025
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what East Texas A&M allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for East Texas A&M.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than East Texas A&M's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at SMUQ1 9:07 4th & 3 at SMU 45, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at FSUQ4 9:30 4th & 4 at FSU 4, down 70Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at SMUQ4 0:00 4th & 15 at SMU 15, down 32Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (22)
- Q1 9:074th & 3 at SMU 45, down 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 4:034th & 4 at ETAM 23, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:134th & 5 at SMU 5, down 14 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 13:014th & 11 at ETAM 24, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 13:014th & 11 at ETAM 24, down 27 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 5:204th & 8 at SMU 12, down 27 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 2:594th & 8 at ETAM 38, down 27 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 7:544th & 13 at ETAM 21, down 25 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 12:024th & 1 at ETAM 34, down 32 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 10:184th & 14 at ETAM 32, down 32 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 6:204th & 2 at SMU 21, down 39 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 0:564th & 4 at SMU 40, down 32 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 0:004th & 15 at SMU 15, down 32 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q1 12:524th & 9 at ETAM 26, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 4:594th & 8 at ETAM 43, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 3:104th & 21 at ETAM 14, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:464th & 8 at ETAM 27, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 5:584th & 11 at ETAM 35, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 10:124th & 4 at ETAM 31, down 56 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 4:264th & 9 at FSU 47, down 63 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 0:234th & 1 at ETAM 34, down 70 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 9:304th & 4 at FSU 4, down 70 · Kicked a field goalClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2025
Expected wins adds up East Texas A&M's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2025
Every game starts at East Texas A&M's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.03
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.02
Game by game
- SMUL 13-42 at SMU0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
- FSUL 3-77 at FSU1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
Points of win probability, from East Texas A&M's side.
Season arc, 2025
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is East Texas A&M's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2025
The largest single-play change in East Texas A&M's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
East Texas A&M's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
East Texas A&M's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
East Texas A&M's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
East Texas A&M's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.