Duquesne
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2018
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Duquesne allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Duquesne.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Duquesne's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at HAWQ3 5:12 4th & 1 at midfield, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
- at MASSQ2 14:30 4th & 3 at DUQ 30, down 25Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
- at HAWQ1 3:03 4th & 1 at DUQ 48, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at MASSQ3 10:09 4th & 1 at DUQ 42, down 40Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at MASSQ1 0:50 4th & 3 at MASS 14, down 21Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at HAWQ2 11:44 4th & 6 at HAW 38, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at MASSQ4 7:42 4th & 1 at DUQ 34, down 48Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (18)
- Q1 12:404th & 7 at DUQ 28, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 9:344th & 8 at MASS 46, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 6:204th & 11 at DUQ 24, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 0:504th & 3 at MASS 14, down 21 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 14:304th & 3 at DUQ 30, down 25 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 10:504th & 11 at DUQ 43, down 25 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:564th & 1 at MASS 38, down 32 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 10:094th & 1 at DUQ 42, down 40 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 7:424th & 1 at DUQ 34, down 48 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 3:064th & 6 at DUQ 34, down 48 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 12:154th & 8 at DUQ 37, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 10:524th & 4 at HAW 34, tied · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 3:034th & 1 at DUQ 48, up 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 11:444th & 6 at HAW 38, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q2 3:164th & 18 at DUQ 13, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 10:264th & 10 at HAW 45, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 5:124th & 1 at midfield, down 14 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 15:004th & 16 at DUQ 49, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2018
Expected wins adds up Duquesne's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2018
Every game starts at Duquesne's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.13
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.05
Game by game
- MASSL 15-63 at MASS8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −10
- HAWL 21-42 at HAW1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −3
Points of win probability, from Duquesne's side.
Closest call
DUQ 28-26 OHIO (2021) - Duquesne dropped to a 3.1% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2018
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Duquesne's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2018
The largest single-play change in Duquesne's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Duquesne's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Duquesne's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Duquesne's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Duquesne's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.