Western Carolina
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2019
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Western Carolina allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Western Carolina.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Western Carolina's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at ALAQ2 0:00 4th & 6 at WCU 24, down 38Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
- at NCSUQ1 15:00 4th & 8 at NCSU 36, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at ALAQ2 9:16 4th & 2 at WCU 33, down 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (18)
- Q1 15:004th & 8 at NCSU 36, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q1 11:264th & 23 at WCU 29, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 5:064th & 9 at WCU 36, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 15:004th & 7 at WCU 45, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:084th & 9 at WCU 21, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 8:244th & 5 at WCU 30, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 2:204th & 6 at WCU 26, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 11:354th & 5 at WCU 40, down 27 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 1:184th & 10 at WCU 35, down 34 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 10:504th & 3 at WCU 32, down 41 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:114th & 11 at midfield, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 9:164th & 2 at WCU 33, down 24 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 4:184th & 25 at WCU 25, down 31 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:434th & 14 at WCU 21, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:004th & 6 at WCU 24, down 38 · Went for itClose call
- Q3 8:124th & 8 at WCU 38, down 52 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:564th & 7 at ALA 21, down 59 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 6:294th & 3 at WCU 32, down 63 · PuntedAgreed
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2019
Expected wins adds up Western Carolina's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2019
Every game starts at Western Carolina's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.03
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.02
Game by game
- NCSUL 0-41 at NCSU1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
- ALAL 3-66 at ALA0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0
Points of win probability, from Western Carolina's side.
Season arc, 2019
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Western Carolina's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2019
The largest single-play change in Western Carolina's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Western Carolina's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Western Carolina's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Western Carolina's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Western Carolina's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.