SE Louisiana
- SRS
- −18.5 (#153)
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2025
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what SE Louisiana allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for SE Louisiana.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than SE Louisiana's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at LTQ2 10:06 4th & 1 at SELA 36, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
- at LSUQ1 10:26 4th & 2 at SELA 27, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at LSUQ3 12:45 4th & 3 at SELA 46, down 35Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at LTQ4 4:09 4th & 10 at LT 31, down 24Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (18)
- Q1 5:534th & 12 at SELA 33, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:594th & 16 at SELA 14, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 0:004th & 11 at SELA 8, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 10:064th & 1 at SELA 36, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q2 6:264th & 2 at LT 33, tied · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 0:474th & 20 at SELA 47, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 10:524th & 8 at SELA 27, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 9:354th & 6 at SELA 37, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 4:094th & 10 at LT 31, down 24 · Went for itClose call
- Q1 10:264th & 2 at SELA 27, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q1 1:104th & 1 at SELA 44, down 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 11:334th & 5 at SELA 45, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 5:564th & 17 at SELA 18, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:404th & 4 at SELA 31, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 12:454th & 3 at SELA 46, down 35 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 11:414th & 12 at SELA 23, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 11:414th & 12 at SELA 23, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 2:164th & 20 at LSU 20, down 49 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2025
Expected wins adds up SE Louisiana's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2025
Every game starts at SE Louisiana's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.21
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.05
Game by game
- LTL 0-24 at LT15% → 0%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −20
- LSUL 10-56 at LSU0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
Points of win probability, from SE Louisiana's side.
Closest call
SELA 38-35 ULM (2026) - SE Louisiana dropped to a 25.0% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2025
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is SE Louisiana's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2025
The largest single-play change in SE Louisiana's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
SE Louisiana's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
SE Louisiana's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
SE Louisiana's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
SE Louisiana's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.