San Diego
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2015
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San Diego allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for San Diego.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San Diego's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Every call this season (8)
- Q1 14:204th & 5 at USD 30, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 11:474th & 10 at USD 35, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 15:004th & 14 at USD 49, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:484th & 8 at USD 19, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:134th & 7 at USD 39, down 20 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 12:044th & 3 at USD 21, down 27 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 0:184th & 6 at SDSU 6, down 27 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 1:194th & 10 at USD 35, down 34 · PuntedAgreed
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2015
Expected wins adds up San Diego's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2015
Every game starts at San Diego's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.03
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.02
Game by game
Points of win probability, from San Diego's side.
Season arc, 2015
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is San Diego's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2015
The largest single-play change in San Diego's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
San Diego's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
San Diego's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
San Diego's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Not enough game history yet to compute a stock price.
Series & rivalries
San Diego's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.