Presbyterian
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2014
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Presbyterian allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Presbyterian.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Presbyterian's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and every call that differed was a close one. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at NIUQ2 7:09 4th & 2 at PRES 28, down 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.1 pts
- at NIUQ3 11:26 4th & 2 at NIU 49, down 48Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.1 pts
- at NCSUQ2 12:26 4th & 8 at NCSU 27, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
- at NIUQ3 0:06 4th & 2 at NIU 14, down 55Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at MISSQ2 2:15 4th & 8 at MISS 44, down 28Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at MISSQ1 5:09 4th & 3 at PRES 46, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at MISSQ4 11:17 4th & 8 at MISS 38, down 42Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at MISSQ4 7:13 4th & 3 at MISS 48, down 48Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (28)
- AgreedQ1 11:024th & 10 at PRES 25, down 7, Punted
- AgreedQ1 4:504th & 9 at PRES 20, down 10, Punted
- AgreedQ2 15:004th & 18 at PRES 20, down 17, Punted
- AgreedQ2 12:334th & 5 at PRES 12, down 24, Punted
- Close callQ2 7:094th & 2 at PRES 28, down 24, Punted
- AgreedQ2 0:584th & 9 at PRES 38, down 31, Punted
- Close callQ3 11:264th & 2 at NIU 49, down 48, Punted
- Close callQ3 0:064th & 2 at NIU 14, down 55, Kicked a field goal
- AgreedQ4 12:534th & 14 at PRES 6, down 52, Punted
- AgreedQ4 8:264th & 14 at PRES 16, down 52, Punted
- AgreedQ1 12:204th & 11 at PRES 31, tied, Punted
- AgreedQ1 9:044th & 13 at PRES 12, down 7, Punted
- AgreedQ1 5:464th & 9 at PRES 21, down 7, Punted
- Close callQ2 12:264th & 8 at NCSU 27, down 7, Went for it
- AgreedQ2 4:404th & 12 at PRES 32, down 7, Punted
- Close callQ3 1:424th & 5 at NCSU 48, down 35, Punted
- AgreedQ4 8:554th & 13 at PRES 49, down 42, Punted
- Close callQ4 5:054th & 2 at PRES 34, down 42, Punted
- AgreedQ1 8:584th & 6 at MISS 47, down 7, Punted
- Close callQ1 5:094th & 3 at PRES 46, down 7, Punted
- AgreedQ2 14:454th & 9 at PRES 24, down 14, Punted
- AgreedQ2 11:034th & 6 at PRES 27, down 14, Punted
- AgreedQ2 6:234th & 21 at PRES 29, down 28, Punted
- Close callQ2 2:154th & 8 at MISS 44, down 28, Punted
- AgreedQ3 11:324th & 7 at PRES 32, down 35, Punted
- AgreedQ3 5:314th & 17 at PRES 9, down 42, Punted
- Close callQ4 11:174th & 8 at MISS 38, down 42, Punted
- Close callQ4 7:134th & 3 at MISS 48, down 48, Punted
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2014
Expected wins adds up Presbyterian's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2014
Every game starts at Presbyterian's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.05
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.03
Game by game
- NIUL 3-55 at NIU1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −3
- NCSUL 0-42 at NCSU1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
- MISSL 0-48 at MISS0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
Points of win probability, from Presbyterian's side.
Season arc, 2014
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Presbyterian's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2014
The largest single-play change in Presbyterian's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Presbyterian's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Presbyterian's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Presbyterian's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Not enough game history yet to compute a stock price.
Series & rivalries
Presbyterian's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.