Mississippi Valley State

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Mississippi Valley State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.

Game by game

1. L
   SAC

Bars above the line: better than expected for Mississippi Valley State.

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Mississippi Valley State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at SACQ2 1:55 4th & 1 at MVSU 29, down 30Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
2. at SACQ3 10:45 4th & 3 at SAC 46, down 31Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
3. at SACQ4 9:51 4th & 2 at SAC 47, down 45Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

Expected wins adds up Mississippi Valley State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   SAC

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Mississippi Valley State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.01

Game by game

• SACL 0-52 at SAC1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2

Points of win probability, from Mississippi Valley State's side.