Elon
- SRS
- −33.7 (#204)
Last game
Q2 0:55 - PLAY: Timeout Stanford, clock 00:55
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2026
Expected wins adds up Elon's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2026
Every game starts at Elon's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.04
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.02
Game by game
Points of win probability, from Elon's side.
Season arc, 2026
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Elon's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2026
The largest single-play change in Elon's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Elon's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Elon's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Elon's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Elon's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.