Campbell
- SRS
- −37.0 (#232)
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2025
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Campbell allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Campbell.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Campbell's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at NCSUQ3 1:01 4th & 2 at NCSU 41, down 49Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at NCSUQ2 1:44 4th & 1 at CAM 34, down 35Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at NCSUQ4 13:12 4th & 4 at CAM 48, down 49Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at ECUQ4 12:34 4th & 3 at CAM 27, down 46Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at NCSUQ4 4:09 4th & 4 at NCSU 29, down 49Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at ECUQ3 1:01 4th & 2 at CAM 33, down 46Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (21)
- Q1 9:424th & 8 at CAM 35, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 0:004th & 1 at ECU 32, down 14 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 12:584th & 10 at ECU 12, down 14 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 7:174th & 10 at CAM 8, down 18 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 4:144th & 12 at CAM 20, down 25 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 7:104th & 6 at CAM 41, down 39 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 1:014th & 2 at CAM 33, down 46 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 12:344th & 3 at CAM 27, down 46 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 9:184th & 9 at CAM 21, down 46 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 5:034th & 6 at CAM 30, down 46 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 9:404th & 10 at NCSU 46, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 4:434th & 16 at CAM 29, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:114th & 15 at CAM 20, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 10:314th & 1 at NCSU 25, down 21 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 6:024th & 15 at CAM 32, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:444th & 1 at CAM 34, down 35 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 10:364th & 6 at NCSU 37, down 42 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 1:014th & 2 at NCSU 41, down 49 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 13:124th & 4 at CAM 48, down 49 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 8:464th & 5 at CAM 20, down 49 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 4:094th & 4 at NCSU 29, down 49 · Kicked a field goalClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2025
Expected wins adds up Campbell's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2025
Every game starts at Campbell's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.06
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.03
Game by game
- ECUL 3-56 at ECU3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −4
- NCSUL 10-56 at NCSU1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −1
Points of win probability, from Campbell's side.
Season arc, 2025
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Campbell's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2025
The largest single-play change in Campbell's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Campbell's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Campbell's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Campbell's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Campbell's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.