Bryant Bulldogs

Expected points

YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Per drive

Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.

Offense−1.88

Defense+0.66allowed

Adjusted for opponents

Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.

Offense−1.14

Defense+1.05allowed

Finishing

Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.

Offense−3.942.3 pts/trip

Defense+0.965.3 pts/trip allowed

Field position

Average expected points where drives started.

Offense0.44

Defense2.21opponents

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Bryant allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.

Game by game

Offense: points over expected per drive

Defense: points kept off the board per drive

Bars above the line: better than expected for Bryant.

Fourth downs

YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Made the numbers' call

Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.

7 of 978%

Win probability given up

Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.

0.5 ptsper game

0.00 expected wins over 1 game

When going was clearly right

Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.

1 of 1100%

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Bryant's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.

Costliest calls against the numbers

Every call this season (9)

Wk 1 · at UNLV · L 14-447 of 9 agreed

After touchdowns: kick or go for two?

Made the numbers' call

Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.

0 of 10%

Win probability given up

Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.

<0.1 ptsthis season

When two was clearly right

Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.

-

Never went for two

Costliest tries against the numbers

at UNLVQ4 12:40 Touchdown, down 28 before the tryKicked; the numbers favored going for two (close call)<0.1 pts

Win probability

YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →

Record vs. expectation, 2023

0-1vs. 0.1 expected−0.1 wins

Expected wins adds up Bryant's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

L
UNLV

What moved it, 2023

−0.4 wins

before kickoff: being favored, vs. coin flips

−0.1 wins

on the field, after the opening snap

Every game starts at Bryant's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →