Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2021
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arkansas-Pine Bluff allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arkansas-Pine Bluff's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at ARKQ2 13:59 4th & 6 at ARK 42, down 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at ARKQ2 6:50 4th & 2 at UAPB 33, down 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at ARKQ1 4:33 4th & 3 at UAPB 27, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at ARKQ1 4:33 4th & 3 at UAPB 27, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (12)
- Q1 12:254th & 5 at UAPB 30, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 8:254th & 14 at ARK 20, down 14 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q1 4:334th & 3 at UAPB 27, down 14 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 4:334th & 3 at UAPB 27, down 14 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 13:594th & 6 at ARK 42, down 17 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 6:504th & 2 at UAPB 33, down 24 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 3:464th & 17 at UAPB 33, down 31 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:464th & 11 at UAPB 24, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 9:434th & 4 at UAPB 31, down 45 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 0:324th & 4 at ARK 27, down 45 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 6:344th & 5 at ARK 15, down 45 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 1:444th & 6 at UAPB 34, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2021
Expected wins adds up Arkansas-Pine Bluff's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2021
Every game starts at Arkansas-Pine Bluff's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.01
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.01
Game by game
Points of win probability, from Arkansas-Pine Bluff's side.
Season arc, 2021
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Arkansas-Pine Bluff's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2021
The largest single-play change in Arkansas-Pine Bluff's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Arkansas-Pine Bluff's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Arkansas-Pine Bluff's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Arkansas-Pine Bluff's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Arkansas-Pine Bluff's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.