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ARST

Arkansas State 38 at Georgia State 52

GAST
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:54 · Brandon Wright punt for 46 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 11 yds to the ArkSt 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Home team on offense+1.4Pregame prior−11.6Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:56: Seth Paige run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +18.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:47: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 31 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +16.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:26: Dan Ellington run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +15.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:30: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +18.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 6:30: Destin Coates run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +19.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:41ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54GAST 4th & 15 at GAST 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:12ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:43GAST 4th & 2 at ARST 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.0%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:44GAST 4th & 9 at ARST 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:50GAST 4th & 19 at ARST 37, up 17
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%−2.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%
    40% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:50GAST 4th & 28 at ARST 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−3.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    85.5%−2.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:21GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:21ARST 4th & 14 at GAST 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−2.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:37ARST 4th & 1 at GAST 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−2.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−10.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:27ARST 4th & 16 at GAST 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:41GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:56GAST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:00ARST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:40ARST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:38GAST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:47ARST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:26GAST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:21ARST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:30ARST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:30GAST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:05GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1937% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
37.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
37.0%
Dan Ellington run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
37.0%
Destin Coates run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
37.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 7 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
37.0%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+7
37.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 7 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
37.0%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+15
37.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 15 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
37.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
37.0%
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
37.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 12 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
41.6%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
40.7%
Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
40.4%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
40.6%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
40.9%
Cody Grace punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
42.3%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Tony Adams) to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
42.4%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
42.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Matlin Marshall for 5 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+14
42.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 14 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
43.0%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
42.9%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
42.4%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 10
OPP 49
-5
42.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 15
OWN 46
+11
41.9%
Brandon Wright punt for 46 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 11 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
44.2%
Marcel Murray run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
44.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 15
OWN 24
-4
44.2%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 20 Layne Hatcher fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Layne HatcherSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 19
OWN 20
-2
44.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 21
OWN 18
+12
44.7%
Marcel Murray run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
44.8%
Cody Grace punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 2:4746% → 58%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
46.2%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+43
46.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 43 yds to the GEORGIAST 45 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
47.4%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
47.4%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-1
47.1%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+6
48.5%
Dan Ellington run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
49.8%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+27
57.6%
Destin Coates run for 27 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
54.9%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
55.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk Merritt, broken up by Hardrick WillisSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+9
55.1%
Layne Hatcher run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
54.8%
Carson Coats pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 7 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
54.4%
Carson Coats pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+18
54.7%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ed Curney) to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
54.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
54.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
54.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
55.1%
Cody Grace punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3360% → 79%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
59.6%
Tra Barnett run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+17
59.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 17 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
60.6%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+25
60.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 25 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
60.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 9 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+2
60.9%
Seth Paige run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
60.9%
Seth Paige run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
79.4%
Seth Paige run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5625% → 40%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
75.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 42 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
73.3%
Kirk Merritt run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+24
60.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 24 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:1664% → 73%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.8%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
63.7%
Dan Ellington run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
64.7%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+31
64.3%
Tra Barnett run for 31 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
65.1%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
65.1%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam Pinckney, broken up by Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
64.4%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+43
73.1%
Brandon Wright 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0430% → 43%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
69.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 46 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
66.7%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+28
57.1%
Marcel Murray run for 28 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0261% → 80%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.7%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+24
60.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 24 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
62.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for no gain to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
62.8%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
62.7%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+16
61.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 16 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
63.0%
Seth Paige run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
63.0%
Seth Paige run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
79.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 11 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 0:5126% → 36%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
73.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 12 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
71.8%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Ed Curney) to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
70.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 6 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-10
70.6%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Murray, Marcel, PENALTY ASU holding (Horst, Jarrett) 10 yards to the GSU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+3
72.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+31
64.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 31 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:4766% → 70%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
65.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 12 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
66.9%
Dan Ellington run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
67.8%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+10
66.7%
Destin Coates run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
68.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
68.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+46
69.6%
Brandon Wright 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
62.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-6
62.4%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Terry Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+7
64.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+10
64.6%
Cody Grace punt for 59 yds , Quavian White returns for 10 yds to the GeoSt 42 GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tucker Gregg) to the GeoSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 2:2167% → 85%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
67.4%
Seth Paige run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
67.7%
Seth Paige run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
69.0%
Seth Paige run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+37
68.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 37 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
69.8%
Seth Paige run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
85.3%
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
80.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal use of hands (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
79.8%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted Jonathan Ifedi return for 4 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 5 yds · 1:1786% → 85%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
85.6%
Destin Coates run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+6
85.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 6 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
85.7%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
87.2%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+9
86.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 9 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
87.4%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-10
87.4%
Gentry, Devin rush for no gain to the ASU27 (Wescott, Logan), PENALTY GSU illegal block 10 yards to the ASU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 19
OPP 37
0
87.2%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam Pinckney, broken up by Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 19
OPP 37
0
86.7%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Destin CoatesSimilar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 19
OPP 37
-6
85.3%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 33 GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal block (Cornelius McCoy) to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 25
OPP 43
-3
86.4%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 28
OPP 46
0
85.3%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 26 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:0513% → 32%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
86.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
85.7%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY GSU pass interference (White, Quavian) 15 yards to the ASU45, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+36
85.6%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 36 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
83.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk Merritt, broken up by - StephensmcqueenSimilar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+15
83.7%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar (White, Quavian), PENALTY GSU pass interference (White, Quavian) 15 yards to the GSU4, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 4 yds for a TD GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.6%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
74.6%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Matlin Marshall, broken up by Tajhea ChambersSimilar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
73.4%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+28
72.6%
Brandon Wright punt for 44 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 28 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0029% → 24%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
71.2%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Ed Curney for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 14
OPP 48
-5
73.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 19
OWN 47
0
74.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk Merritt, broken up by Remy LazarusSimilar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 19
OWN 47
-5
75.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (Layne Hatcher) to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 24
OWN 42
+10
75.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
75.9%
Cody Grace punt for 38 yds, downed at the GeoSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:3177% → 79%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
77.2%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+12
77.2%
Tra Barnett run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
77.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 13 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
79.2%
Tra Barnett run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+1
81.8%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-9
80.7%
Dan Ellington sacked by Tukua Ahoia for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 37
+7
78.7%
Brandon Wright punt for 38 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:0721% → 44%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+27
79.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 27 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
76.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+21
77.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 6 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Cedric Stone) to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
74.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
74.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
76.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 1 yd to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+5
77.6%
Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
74.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
74.3%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
55.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0067% → 92%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
67.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 21 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
70.6%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 1 yd to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+5
70.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+10
70.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 10 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
71.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 23 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
72.6%
Tra Barnett run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+15
72.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 15 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.6%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:0310% → 15%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
88.0%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+41
88.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 41 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
85.1%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 23 Isaiah Azubuike fumbled, forced by Dontae Wilson, recovered by ArkSt Ernesto RamirezSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 12
OPP 23
0
85.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 12
OPP 0
-4
87.2%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Dontae Wilson for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 27 GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 16
OPP 27
+44
85.4%
Blake Grupe 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2289% → 98%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
88.5%
Tra Barnett run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+56
89.7%
Tra Barnett run for 56 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
90.5%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.6%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to DJ Chatman for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
94.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
94.7%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted Tyler Gore return for no gain to the ArkSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:1098% → 99%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
98.1%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
98.5%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+18
98.7%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (B.J. Edmonds) to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
98.7%
Tra Barnett run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 11
OPP 18
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:30
Destin Coates run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
+19.1
TD · Q4 10:30
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
-18.6
TD · Q2 8:56
Seth Paige run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
+18.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com