Try the model
GAST

Georgia State 35 at Arkansas State 51

ARST
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2018 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:03 · Brandon Wright punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior+28.4Home team on offense+1.1Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:39: Jonathan Adams Jr. 35 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Blake Grupe Kick) — ARST win probability +4.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:20: Justin McInnis 6 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Blake Grupe Kick) — ARST win probability +4.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:57: Tajhea Chambers 34 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Grupe Kick) — ARST win probability +3.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:09: Cornelius McCoy 37 Yd pass from Dan Ellington (Brandon Wright Kick) — GAST win probability +3.5 pts (now 5%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:22: Tra Barnett 12 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick) — GAST win probability +2.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:33GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:19ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:03GAST 4th & 14 at ARST 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:10GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.5%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:15GAST 4th & 17 at GAST 18, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:37ARST 4th & 4 at GAST 20, up 27
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:27GAST 4th & 1 at ARST 17, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:27GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 27
    Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:58ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 20, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:08ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 21, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:33GAST 4th & 23 at GAST 34, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:57ARST 4th & 5 at GAST 14, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:00GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 41, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:15GAST 4th & 6 at ARST 34, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:54ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:09GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:50ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:39ARST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:20ARST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 10:57ARST Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:09GAST Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:08ARST Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:22GAST Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:19ARST Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:09GAST Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:03GAST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5684% → 84%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.6%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
83.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 19 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
83.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+5
83.4%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
83.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Marvis Brown) to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+2
83.3%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+3
83.2%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+10
83.1%
Justice Hansen run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
83.2%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+30
83.7%
Javonis Isaac 30 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:1717% → 17%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Camrin Knight for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
83.3%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
83.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
83.3%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-4
83.2%
Dan Ellington sacked by Ronheen Bingham for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
83.4%
Brandon Wright punt for 61 yds, downed at the ArkSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0183% → 83%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
83.3%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+1
83.2%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
83.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
82.9%
Cody Grace punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the ArkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:0617% → 19%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
82.8%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-5
82.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Penny Hart) to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
82.8%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+5
82.9%
Ellington, Dan pass sacked for loss of 4 yards to the ARKST45 (Bingham, Ronheen), PENALTY ARKST offside (Thurmon, Kevin) 5 yards to the ARKST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+36
80.7%
Tamir Jones 36 Yd pass from Dan Ellington (Brandon Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
83.2%
Justice Hansen 8 Yd Run (Blake Grupe PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:4217% → 18%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
82.6%
Tra Barnett run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
82.1%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Devin Gentry, broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
82.2%
Dan Ellington run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
81.8%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Hunter Atkinson) to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 17
OWN 48
0
82.2%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Devin Gentry, broken up by Forrest MerrillSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+5
82.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 5 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
-2
82.2%
Dan Ellington sacked by William Bradley-King and Ronheen Bingham for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
82.4%
Brandon Wright punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:2183% → 87%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
82.5%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
82.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+15
82.1%
Wand, Warren rush for no gain to the ARKST16, PENALTY GEORGIAST face mask 15 yards to the ARKST31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST.Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+34
82.5%
Justice Hansen run for 34 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
86.6%
Jonathan Adams Jr. 35 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8FUMBLE
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:5715% → 16%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.9%
Penny Hart run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
84.8%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
84.9%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
85.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Tamir Jones, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+9
85.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 9 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+4
84.5%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
84.2%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+19
83.9%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Derrick Bean) to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
83.7%
Penny Hart run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (William Bradley-King) to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-6
83.6%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 26 Dan Ellington fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Ronheen BinghamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:0086% → 91%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
86.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
86.2%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+64
86.2%
Marcel Murray run for 64 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
86.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q2 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.4%
Justin McInnis 6 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:189% → 5%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.2%
Dan Ellington run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
91.1%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
91.3%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-34
95.0%
Tajhea Chambers 34 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:365% → 4%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Seth PaigeSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.4%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24 Dan Ellington fumbled, recovered by GeoStSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-6
95.7%
Dan Ellington sacked by William Bradley-King for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
95.8%
Brandon Wright punt for 51 yds , Warren Wand returns for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12MISSED FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:2396% → 97%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
95.8%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
95.7%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+8
96.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
96.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+6
96.6%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
96.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+14
96.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 14 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
96.9%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+5
97.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 5 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+5
97.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 5 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
97.3%
Blake Grupe 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:032% → 1%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+54
97.6%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tamir Jones for 54 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
98.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+1
98.7%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
98.6%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 3 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
98.8%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the ArkSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14END OF HALF
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:2198% → 99%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
97.8%
Hansen, Justice rush for 3 yards to the ARKST20, PENALTY ARKST holding (Harvey, Klint) 9 yards to the ARKST8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 19
OWN 8
+2
98.0%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 17
OWN 10
+14
98.0%
Marcel Murray run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+10
98.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
98.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+18
98.4%
Warren Wand run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
98.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
98.6%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+15
98.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 15 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:282% → 3%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Tra BarnettSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.1%
Tra Barnett run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
96.8%
Brandon Wright punt for 46 yds, downed at the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2799% → 99%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Javonis IsaacSimilar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Cody Grace punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:412% → 5%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
97.7%
Seth Paige run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-5
97.6%
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 47 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+19
99.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 19 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
99.1%
Tra Barnett run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+4
99.1%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
95.5%
Cornelius McCoy 37 Yd pass from Dan Ellington (Brandon Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:5297% → 97%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.9%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-7
97.0%
Justice Hansen sacked by Ed Curney for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+4
96.8%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
96.7%
Cody Grace punt for 32 yds, downed at the GeoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:274% → 3%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
96.3%
Penny Hart run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
96.6%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Devin GentrySimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 15
OWN 42
-5
96.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 20
OWN 37
-3
96.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 23
OWN 34
0
96.8%
Brandon Wright punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Warren Wand at the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:0497% → 100%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
97.4%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+33
97.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 33 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
97.5%
Marcel Murray run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+2
97.4%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
97.5%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Adams Jr., Jonathan, PENALTY GEORGIAST offside 5 yards to the GEORGIAST22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 5
OPP 22
+22
99.7%
Justice Hansen 22 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 2:380% → 3%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.6%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+16
99.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 16 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
99.7%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+15
99.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
99.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+8
99.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 8 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+16
99.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 16 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
97.4%
Tra Barnett 12 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4898% → 100%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.2%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+28
98.3%
Warren Wand run for 28 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+25
98.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 25 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
98.4%
Marcel Murray run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
99.8%
Marcel Murray 9 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:010% → 2%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
99.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 17 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+16
99.8%
Dan Ellington run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.8%
Seth Paige run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
98.5%
Diondre Champaigne 20 Yd pass from Dan Ellington (Brandon Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:5599% → 99%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-9
98.8%
Justice Hansen sacked by Jamal Paxton for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 19
OWN 18
+4
98.8%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+31
98.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 31 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Quavian WhiteSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.0%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+12
99.0%
Justice Hansen run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.0%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to McInnis, Justin, PENALTY GEORGIAST pass interference 15 yards to the GEORGIAST19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST.Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
99.0%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+1
99.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 1 yd to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+1
99.1%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
99.1%
Blake Grupe 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 6:471% → 3%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tamir Jones for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.4%
Dan Ellington run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.4%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Penny Hart for 9 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-10
99.4%
Aaron Winchester sacked by Ronheen Bingham and Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+6
99.4%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Diondre Champaigne for 6 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+5
99.5%
Aaron Winchester run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.5%
Seth Paige run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+15
99.5%
Winchester, Aaron pass incomplete, PENALTY ARKST pass interference (Byner, Brandon) 15 yards to the ARKST38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST.Similar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
99.5%
Winchester, Aaron rush for 1 yard to the ARKST37, PENALTY ARKST offside 5 yards to the ARKST33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 5
OPP 33
0
99.4%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Diondre ChampaigneSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+3
99.5%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-4
99.5%
Tra Barnett run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 34 Tra Barnett fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Tra BarnettSimilar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+28
99.6%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 28 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.5%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.5%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.5%
Diondre Champaigne 3 Yd pass from Aaron Winchester (Brandon Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:20
Justin McInnis 6 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Blake Grupe Kick)
+4.5
TD · Q1 2:39
Jonathan Adams Jr. 35 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Blake Grupe Kick)
+4.1
TD · Q2 10:57
Tajhea Chambers 34 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Grupe Kick)
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com