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ARST

Arkansas State 31 at Georgia State 16

GAST
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2016 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:06 · Brandon Wright punt for 47 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Home team on offense+1.1Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.4Pregame prior−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. MISSED FG · Q2 0:25: Rogier Ten Lohuis 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Cody Brown Chris Humes return for 57 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +17.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:57: Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 17 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +17.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:36: Johnston White run for 1 yd for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +18.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. PUNT · Q4 13:30: Brandon Wright punt for 49 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 68 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +14.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:15: Sawyer Williams kickoff for 55 yds , Tra Barnett return for 90 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis PAT BLOCKED) — GAST win probability +7.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 8 of 12ARST made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16ARST 4th & 2 at GAST 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:16GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:38ARST 4th & 6 at GAST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    52.2%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:25ARST 4th & 7 at GAST 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:36GAST 4th & 15 at ARST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:22ARST 4th & 7 at GAST 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:22GAST 4th & 2 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:22ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:06GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:04ARST 4th & 16 at GAST 31, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.4%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:25GAST 4th & 10 at ARST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:41GAST 4th & 2 at ARST 44, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%−4.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:15ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−4.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:57ARST 4th & 23 at ARST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−5.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:16GAST 4th & 11 at GAST 40, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.5%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.7%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:36ARST 4th & 1 at GAST 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−5.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−21.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:30GAST 4th & 17 at GAST 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−4.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:15ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−2.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 12:05GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 10:43ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  23. Q4 9:25GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  24. Q4 3:57ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:24GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 5, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 5:57GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:36ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:15GAST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:06ARST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
45.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 3 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+8
45.0%
Kendrick Dorn run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
45.0%
Kendrick Dorn run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
45.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd Boyd, broken up by Waylon RobersonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
45.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
45.0%
Brandon Wright punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2MISSED FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:5055% → 54%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+8
45.5%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+25
45.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 25 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
45.2%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
45.2%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+1
45.3%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
45.4%
Hansen, Justice pass complete to Echols-Luper, C for 3 yards to the ASU42, PENALTY ASU ineligible downfield on pass (Mack, Blake) 5 yards to the ASU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
45.9%
J.D. Houston 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
46.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+25
45.9%
Brandon Wright punt for 53 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 25 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4MISSED FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 4:1454% → 53%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
45.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 12 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
45.7%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
45.7%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+10
46.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
45.6%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
45.5%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
46.3%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+9
46.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 9 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
45.9%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+4
45.9%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
45.9%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
45.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q1 6:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
46.3%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
47.2%
J.D. Houston 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5INT
7 plays · 47 yds · 0:0048% → 50%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
47.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 16 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
48.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (Chris Odom) to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+9
48.9%
Demarcus Kirk run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
50
-4
49.1%
Conner Manning run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 46 Conner Manning fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Conner ManningSimilar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+6
48.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 6 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+15
48.7%
Manning, Conner pass incomplete to Smith, Glenn, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Brown, Cody) 15 yards to the ASU33, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
49.6%
Conner Manning pass intercepted Blaise Taylor return for 14 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 53 yds · 0:0052% → 54%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
47.7%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+32
47.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 32 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
46.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+7
46.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 7 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
46.3%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
45.9%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 20 Justice Hansen fumbled, forced by Terry Thomas, recovered by GeoSt Alonzo McGeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:0849% → 51%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
49.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
50.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for no gain to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+35
49.3%
Kyler Neal run for 35 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
51.2%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+3
51.7%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+9
51.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 9 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
51.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
51.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-5
51.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Gabe Mobley) to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
50.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+42
50.7%
Rogier Ten Lohuis 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FG
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:1449% → 52%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+32
51.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 32 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
49.7%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+22
49.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 22 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
49.0%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
49.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
49.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris Murray, broken up by Jalen LawrenceSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
48.4%
J.D. Houston 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0051% → 52%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
50.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 18 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
52.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
52.7%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 2
50
0
52.5%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 2
50
0
51.7%
Brandon Wright punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
49.4%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+9
49.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 9 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
49.2%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
49.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-8
50.0%
Justice Hansen sacked by Michael Shaw for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 21 Justice Hansen fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Austin Moreton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 15
OWN 21
0
50.9%
Damon Foncham punt for 60 yds, downed at the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
52.0%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
51.9%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Chris HumesSimilar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+9
50.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 9 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+5
51.0%
Brandon Wright punt for 47 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
48.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 35 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
45.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+8
45.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 8 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
45.1%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-10
45.1%
Justice Hansen sacked by Shawanye Lawrence for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 16
OPP 31
0
47.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren Wand, broken up by Tevin JonesSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 16
OPP 31
0
49.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake Mack, broken up by Bryan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13MISSED FG TD
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:4152% → 37%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
51.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 7 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+12
54.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tra Barnett for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
50
+2
54.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+15
54.6%
Manning, Conner pass incomplete to Davis, Robert (Humes, Chris), PENALTY ASU personal foul (Swalley, Jake) 15 yards to the ASU33, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
55.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Keith RuckerSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
55.3%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
53.9%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+57
36.6%
Rogier Ten Lohuis 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Cody Brown Chris Humes return for 57 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
36.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
35.4%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
34.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete, broken up by Shawanye LawrenceSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-8
35.5%
Justice Hansen sacked by Chase Middleton for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 20
0
37.4%
Damon Foncham punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
39.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+9
38.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
40.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
38.5%
Brandon Wright punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
35.1%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
35.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+15
36.3%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Rolland-Jones, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Stone, Cedric) 15 yards to the ASU32, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
34.0%
Johnston White run for no gain to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-7
34.5%
Justice Hansen sacked by Julien Laurent for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 17
OWN 25
0
36.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake Mack, broken up by Tevin JonesSimilar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 17
OWN 25
+1
37.0%
Damon Foncham punt for 42 yds , Cedric Stone returns for 1 yd to the GeoSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:2036% → 58%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
35.8%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
37.6%
Glenn Smith run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
37.8%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+28
35.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 28 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
40.7%
Glenn Smith run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 4
OPP 25
-5
40.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+19
40.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 19 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
40.7%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 11
OPP 12
-5
40.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Hunter Atkinson) to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 16
OPP 17
+17
58.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 17 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:0050% → 47%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
50.3%
Johnston White run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
47.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Colton Jackson) to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
49.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
49.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 15
OWN 38
-8
50.5%
Justice Hansen sacked by Michael Shaw for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 23
OWN 30
0
53.2%
Damon Foncham punt for 54 yds, downed at the GeoSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0054% → 51%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
53.5%
Glenn Smith run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
53.9%
Glenn Smith run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
56.3%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
55.1%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
52.9%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 11
OWN 40
-21
51.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 21 yards to the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2656% → 73%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
43.7%
Justice Hansen run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
43.7%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
43.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Christian BookerSimilar
Q3 2:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
45.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 4 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.2%
Johnston White run for 1 yd for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:0632% → 13%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
32.1%
Glenn Smith run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
30.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
29.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Alex Stoehr) to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 21
-3
29.4%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 18
+1
28.0%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 17
OWN 19
+68
13.4%
Brandon Wright punt for 49 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 68 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.7%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
20.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Sterling Stowers, broken up by Bryan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
21.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake Mack, broken up by Cedric StoneSimilar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
23.0%
Damon Foncham punt for 45 yds, downed at the GeoSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
22.5%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-2
23.7%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
21.6%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
20.2%
Brandon Wright punt for 42 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for no gain to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
18.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 3 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+1
18.4%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
19.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
20.7%
Damon Foncham punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cedric Stone at the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
20.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 14 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
21.8%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-15
23.2%
Barnett, Tra rush for loss of 4 yards to the GSU35 (Woodson-Luster), PENALTY GSU face mask (Rucker, Keith) 15 yards to the GSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 23
OWN 24
0
20.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Tra BarnettSimilar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 23
OWN 24
+16
19.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 16 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
20.0%
Brandon Wright punt for 47 yds, downed at the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:3586% → 90%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
14.5%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
14.4%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
13.7%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
14.2%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
13.4%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
12.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+3
13.3%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
10.1%
Damon Foncham punt for 57 yds, downed at the GeoSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3313% → 7%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
12.9%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+7
12.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 7 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 2
OWN 10
-5
12.4%
Conner Manning sacked by Kyle Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 7
OWN 5
0
7.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:1295% → 98%
Q4 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
5.0%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.7%
Johnston White run for 3 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 31INT
12 plays · 45 yds · 1:013% → 1%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+2
2.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
2.7%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+11
2.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 11 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
2.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tra Barnett for 8 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
0.9%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+19
0.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 19 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
1.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+3
1.0%
Conner Manning pass intercepted Cody Brown return for 3 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:36
Johnston White run for 1 yd for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)
-18.2
TD · Q3 5:57
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 17 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
+17.6
MISSED FG · Q2 0:25
Rogier Ten Lohuis 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Cody Brown Chris Humes return for 57 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)
-17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com