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GAST

Georgia State 34 at Arkansas State 48

ARST
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:19 · Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 203Pregame prior+0.3Home team on offense+29.4Garbage-time factor+7.8Score differential+9.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:10: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 9 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +11.7 pts (now 40%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:31: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 26 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +9.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:17: Luke Ferguson kickoff for 65 yds , Marquan Greene return for 100 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +15.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:37: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 3 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +24.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:15: Johnston White run for 3 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +22.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:19GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:34ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:01GAST 4th & 8 at ARST 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:07ARST 4th & 3 at GAST 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:07ARST 4th & 21 at GAST 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:14ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:02GAST 4th & 14 at GAST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:41ARST 4th & 1 at GAST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−1.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−6.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:17ARST 4th & 20 at ARST 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−5.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:15GAST 4th & 1 at ARST 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.9%−2.8
    72% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−11.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:33GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:34GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:19GAST 4th & 15 at ARST 28, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:04ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:58GAST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:19ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:20GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:00GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:41ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:10GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:31ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:17GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:37ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:15ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:31ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
89.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
89.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
89.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
89.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2INT
10 plays · 55 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
89.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 20 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
89.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 9 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
89.1%
JD McKissic run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
89.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Chris Murray for 11 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
89.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 8 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 2
OPP 23
-5
89.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+9
89.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
89.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
89.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+4
89.1%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Tevin Jones return for 4 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
88.2%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+4
88.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-4
88.2%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
88.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 59 yds, downed at the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
87.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 6 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
87.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-1
87.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
87.5%
Luke Ferguson punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:2513% → 13%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
87.0%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Harden, Donovan, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Humes, Chris) 15 yards to the ASU40, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
87.0%
Nick Arbuckle run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
86.9%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
86.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
87.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
86.6%
Wil Lutz 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Chris Odom N/A return for no gain to the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:5787% → 88%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
86.8%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+26
86.9%
Michael Gordon run for 26 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
87.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 17 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
87.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 16 yds to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
87.3%
Knighten, Fredi pass complete to McKissic, J.D. for 8 yards to the GSU6, out-of-bounds (Williams, Bryan), PENALTY ASU HL (Houston, Tres) 10 yards to the GSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+17
87.3%
Michael Gordon run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, face mask (8 yards) (Alonzo McGee) to the GeoSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
87.3%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
87.3%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Paschal, Dijon, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Smith, Jerome) 2 yards to the GSU2, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
87.3%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds for a TD, (JD Houston PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:0013% → 16%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
87.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 8 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+42
87.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 42 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
86.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 23 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q1 3:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
86.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Blaise Taylor) to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.7%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:3386% → 88%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
85.8%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+8
85.8%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+35
85.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 35 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.0%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 1 yd for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9FUMBLE
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:1913% → 13%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
87.0%
Glenn Smith run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+28
86.8%
Glenn Smith run for 28 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
86.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+19
86.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 19 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
85.7%
Glenn Smith run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 18 GEORGIA ST Penalty, HL (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 16
OPP 28
+3
86.0%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 25
0
86.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+22
86.6%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 43 Nick Arbuckle fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Chris Stone , return for 0 yards , return for 22 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
87.4%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
87.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+1
87.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 1 yd to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+6
86.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 6 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
87.4%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-5
87.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 12
OPP 32
0
87.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 12
OPP 32
-9
86.8%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Chandon Sullivan for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 21
OPP 41
0
86.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11TD
2 plays · 91 yds · 0:3214% → 21%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+66
86.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 66 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
78.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 25 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
81.6%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+5
81.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
80.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
80.6%
Luke Ferguson punt for 37 yds, downed at the GeoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
77.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
77.6%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
77.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Glenn Smith, broken up by Darrius RosserSimilar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 11
OPP 49
-3
78.5%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Khari Lain for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
79.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14INT TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3780% → 71%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
80.4%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+25
71.0%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted for a TD Chandon Sullivan return for 25 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1971% → 81%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
71.1%
Warren Wand run for 21 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
72.8%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+16
73.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Jerome Smith) to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
74.4%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
74.4%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+5
73.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+26
80.8%
Johnston White run for 26 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3123% → 40%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
77.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 48 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
74.2%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+3
74.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 3 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+16
72.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 16 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
71.0%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
71.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
71.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
60.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 9 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
67.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete, broken up by Bobby BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:2365% → 78%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
65.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 6 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+8
65.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 8 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
65.5%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+11
65.7%
Warren Wand run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+28
67.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 28 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
69.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Jemar Clark) to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 15
OPP 30
0
68.7%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+4
67.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 4 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+26
77.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 26 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
60.4%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
60.2%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-14
59.7%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Carnell Hopson for a loss of 14 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
58.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 58 yds, downed at the GeoSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 0:0044% → 45%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
56.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
56.9%
Demarcus Kirk run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
54.2%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-5
53.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Jah-Mai Davidson) to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
56.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Keith RuckerSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+22
57.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 22 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
53.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan Harden, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
53.2%
Glenn Smith run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+3
53.2%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
52.6%
Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
52.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
53.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for no gain to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
54.9%
Nick Arbuckle run for no gain to the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22FUMBLE
10 plays · 53 yds · 0:0052% → 56%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
51.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 5 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
52.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
52.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
52.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
54.8%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
53.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+24
52.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 24 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
58.3%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+2
58.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 3
OPP 24
-1
56.4%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 25 Fredi Knighten fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Shawayne LawrenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
42.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
43.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+53
45.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 43 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 53 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:2351% → 73%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
50.5%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+2
50.4%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+11
48.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 11 yds to the GeoSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 3 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25INT
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0037% → 41%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
63.5%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+5
63.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 5 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+6
64.8%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Harden, Donovan, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Wagner, Nehemia) 6 yards to the GSU25, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
62.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Gabe Mobley) to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
63.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 15 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
60.6%
Glenn Smith run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
59.3%
Glenn Smith run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
58.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan Harden, broken up by Nehemiah WagnerSimilar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+13
58.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Nehemiah Wagner return for 13 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:3969% → 90%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+38
68.6%
JD McKissic run for 26 yds to the ARKST 26 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Bobby Baker) to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
70.8%
JD McKissic run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+7
69.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
68.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.2%
Johnston White run for 3 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:3616% → 12%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
84.1%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+2
83.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+11
84.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 11 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
82.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for no gain to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
83.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Demarcus Kirk for 7 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-5
81.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
83.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+7
88.0%
Wil Lutz punt for 38 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 7 yds to the ArkSt 45 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (Nehemiah Wagner) to the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:0390% → 99%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
90.3%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
90.5%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+7
93.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
93.8%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+60
99.0%
Warren Wand run for 60 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 29DOWNS
13 plays · 47 yds · 2:122% → 1%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+21
97.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Demarcus Kirk for 21 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
97.5%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Chase Robison for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+13
98.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 13 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+18
98.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 18 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
98.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 1 yd to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
98.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Jamaris HartSimilar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 9
OPP 22
-6
98.2%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Khari Lain for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 15
OPP 28
0
98.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:37
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 3 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)
+24.9
TD · Q4 8:15
Johnston White run for 3 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)
+22.1
TD · Q3 11:17
Luke Ferguson kickoff for 65 yds , Marquan Greene return for 100 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Wil Lutz KICK)
-15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com