Week 5, 2026 in review
The week's extremes, straight from the models' own numbers. Every row links to its game.
Biggest single plays
The largest single-play change in win probability in each of the week's games, one play per game.
Most improbable comebacks
The eventual winner's lowest win probability at any point in the game, for winners it fell below 50% - the deepest hole they climbed out of.
Most exciting games
A 0-100 score blending overall win-probability movement, how often the lead flipped, late-game tension, and comeback magnitude across the whole game.
Biggest misses: pregame points model
The eventual winner's win chance from the points model before kickoff, for winners it had as the underdog, lowest first - the results it saw coming least. A projection stored after kickoff, when the model was re-run, is marked.
Biggest misses: in-game win probability
The winner's average win probability across every snap, for winners it averaged under 50% - how long the model backed the team that lost.
Costliest fourth-down calls
Real fourth downs where the coach's call gave up the most win probability against the option the numbers favored: go for it, kick or punt.
Luckiest wins
Win probability the winner gained, net, on lost fumbles, interceptions and missed or blocked kicks.