Western Illinois
- SRS
- −24.5 (#163)
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2026
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Western Illinois allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Western Illinois.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Western Illinois's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at WISQ1 12:57 4th & 6 at WIU 31, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
- at WISQ4 11:56 4th & 4 at WIU 27, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at WISQ2 1:13 4th & 6 at WIS 48, down 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (11)
- Q1 12:574th & 6 at WIU 31, down 7 · Went for itClose call
- Q1 7:544th & 5 at WIU 30, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:524th & 5 at WIS 10, down 17 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 7:134th & 2 at WIS 17, down 17 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 4:594th & 6 at WIS 10, down 17 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 1:134th & 6 at WIS 48, down 17 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 10:244th & 16 at WIS 16, down 17 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 1:494th & 3 at WIU 49, down 21 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 11:564th & 4 at WIU 27, down 21 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 6:124th & 4 at WIU 26, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 2:394th & 5 at WIU 33, down 27 · PuntedAgreed
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2026
Expected wins adds up Western Illinois's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2026
Every game starts at Western Illinois's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.02
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.01
Game by game
Points of win probability, from Western Illinois's side.
Closest call
WIU 28-23 NIU (2016) - Western Illinois dropped to a 26.5% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2026
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Western Illinois's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2026
The largest single-play change in Western Illinois's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Western Illinois's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Western Illinois's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Western Illinois's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Western Illinois's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.