VMI
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2015
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what VMI allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for VMI.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than VMI's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at BALLQ2 15:00 4th & 2 at VMI 20, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
- at BALLQ4 4:55 4th & 6 at BALL 15, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts
- at BALLQ1 15:00 4th & 1 at VMI 37, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at BALLQ1 8:10 4th & 2 at VMI 35, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at BALLQ4 7:41 4th & 3 at VMI 32, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
Every call this season (10)
- Q1 15:004th & 1 at VMI 37, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q1 8:104th & 2 at VMI 35, down 3 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 4:374th & 18 at VMI 18, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 15:004th & 2 at VMI 20, down 3 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 12:034th & 13 at VMI 21, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 5:594th & 3 at BALL 10, down 13 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 0:294th & 2 at BALL 14, down 13 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 12:234th & 1 at BALL 6, down 17 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 7:414th & 3 at VMI 32, down 17 · Went for itClose call
- Q4 4:554th & 6 at BALL 15, down 17 · Went for itClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2015
Expected wins adds up VMI's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2015
Every game starts at VMI's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.30
- Possession & field position−0.01
- Timeouts−0.01
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.03
Game by game
Points of win probability, from VMI's side.
Season arc, 2015
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is VMI's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2015
The largest single-play change in VMI's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
VMI's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
VMI's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
VMI's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
VMI's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.