2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:25 · Nathan Totten punt for 35 yds , Lucas Struck returns for 3 yds to the MRSH 15 Old Dominion Penalty, Defensive holding (TJ Lott) to the MRSH 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:52: Michael Allen 49 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick) — ODU win probability +9.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 1:23: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 6 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK) — MRSH win probability +23.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:24: Riley Callaghan 42 yd FG GOOD — ODU win probability +16.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q3 8:45: Antwan Roberts 26 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick) — MRSH win probability +15.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:47: Demarcus Lacey 15 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick) — MRSH win probability +12.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ODU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 12:50MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snapGo for it19.3%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.5%average punt
- Q1 10:13ODU 4th & 2 at MRSH 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.3%50% to convertField goal79.3%−0.193% to makePunt78.8%−0.6average punt
- Q1 5:04MRSH 4th & 3 at ODU 44, tiedClose callPunted · 23.8% before the snapGo for it23.9%52% to convertField goal23.5%−0.427% to makePuntTheir call23.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:21ODU 4th & 15 at ODU 20, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snapGo for it66.8%−1.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.1%average punt
- Q1 1:58MRSH 4th & 10 at ODU 34, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snapGo for it34.0%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call34.2%47% to makePunt33.6%−0.6average punt
- Q2 10:20ODU 4th & 2 at MRSH 5, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.6%51% to convertField goal64.6%−1.092% to makePunt60.0%−5.6average punt
- Q2 8:25MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 12, up 7Close callPunted · 36.4% before the snapGo for it36.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:10MRSH 4th & 2 at ODU 2, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snapGo for it44.8%48% to convertField goalTheir call43.4%−1.594% to makePunt37.6%−7.2average punt
- Q2 0:24ODU 4th & 10 at MRSH 24, down 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snapGo for it19.5%−2.428% to convertField goalTheir call21.9%68% to makePunt15.0%−6.9average punt
- Q3 12:39ODU 4th & 6 at ODU 49, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snapGo for it29.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.9%average punt
- Q3 9:21MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 40, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snapGo for it76.9%−4.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.9%average punt
- Q3 7:57ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it11.1%−0.848% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.9%average punt
- Q3 4:46ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 34, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%−0.3average punt
- Q3 2:11MRSH 4th & 4 at ODU 28, up 35Close callKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%48% to convertField goalTheir call99.3%−<0.160% to makePunt98.9%−0.4average punt
- Q3 0:51ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 24, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 12:44MRSH 4th & 8 at ODU 48, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 9:07MRSH 4th & 2 at ODU 2, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%48% to convertField goal99.7%−0.194% to makePunt99.2%−0.6average punt
- Q4 4:52MRSH 4th & 12 at MRSH 46, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 2:14ODU 4th & 4 at MRSH 32, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%48% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.151% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ODU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 4:57MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.2%97% to makeGo for two26.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:52ODU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.9%97% to makeGo for two67.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:23MRSH Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.3%97% to makeGo for two70.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:47MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:56ODU Touchdown, down 32 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.2%45% to convert
- Q4 0:48ODU Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMRSHDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 1:5014% → 13%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
13.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 9 yds to the MRSH 26Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-8
13.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Carlos Del Rio-Wilson for a loss of 8 yards to the MRSH 23Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 15
OWN 23
0
13.1%
Nathan Totten punt for 36 yds , Devin Roche returns for no gain to the ODU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2DOWNS5 plays · 56 yds · 2:3087% → 87%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+47
13.1%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 47 yds to the MRSH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 53 yds · 5:0713% → 12%
Q1 9:46
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+12
12.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 12 yds to the MRSH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
12.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 6 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
12.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 19 yds to the MRSH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
12.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 2 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+2
12.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Ben Turner for 2 yds to the ODU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4TD1 play · 89 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3683% → 82%
Q1 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.2%
Colton Joseph sacked by Kerion Martin and Josh Pierre-Louis for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6MISSED FG6 plays · 25 yds · 1:1120% → 20%
ODUDrive 7TD4 plays · 66 yds · 1:0982% → 82%
MRSHDrive 8TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5520% → 13%
Q2 14:57
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
21.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 1 yd to the MRSH 40Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+11
21.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 11 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
12.5%
Michael Allen 49 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9DOWNS8 plays · 71 yds · 3:3086% → 85%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
13.9%
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Tre' Brown III for a 1ST down Marshall Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Marvae Myers) to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
13.6%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 5 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
13.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 5 yds to the MRSH 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5511% → 11%
Q2 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+6
11.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 6 yds to the MRSH 11Similar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 2
OWN 12
+3
10.7%
Nathan Totten punt for 35 yds , Lucas Struck returns for 3 yds to the MRSH 15 Old Dominion Penalty, Defensive holding (TJ Lott) to the MRSH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11FG11 plays · 54 yds · 5:0812% → 20%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
11.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 11 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+10
12.6%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 10 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
13.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 3 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
13.6%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds to the ODU 14 for a 1ST down Old Dominion Penalty, face mask (7 yards) (Mario Easterly) to the ODU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12FUMBLE3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3774% → 72%
MRSHDrive 13TD4 plays · 39 yds · 0:5630% → 45%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
29.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 24 yds to the ODU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
21.4%
Antwan Roberts run for no gain Marshall Penalty, illegal formation (De'Andre Tamarez) to the ODU 6Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
44.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 6 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14FG9 plays · 51 yds · 0:5951% → 63%
MRSHDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:1549% → 41%
MRSHDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 3:1449% → 63%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
49.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 8 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-15
57.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for no gain to the MRSH 45 Marshall Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Toby Payne) to the MRSH 30Similar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 15
OWN 40
+3
63.0%
Nathan Totten punt for 35 yds , Devin Roche returns for 3 yds to the ODU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18TD2 plays · 28 yds · 0:3269% → 84%
ODUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4722% → 22%
Q3 8:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
78.1%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 2 yds to the ODU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:0282% → 99%
Q3 7:20
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+52
83.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 52 yds to the ODU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
86.2%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to De'Andre Tamarez Old Dominion Penalty, Offensive holding (Yards) to the ODU 13Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-2
86.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 8 yds Marshall Penalty, Offensive holding (Adrian Norton) to the ODU 15Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
98.6%
Demarcus Lacey 15 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Ja'Cory Thomas, broken up by Caleb Clark-GloverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22FG5 plays · 6 yds · 2:3199% → 99%
ODUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:181% → 0%
Q3 1:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-9
99.5%
Colton Joseph sacked by Javae Gilmore for a loss of 9 yards to the ODU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 3:0399% → 100%
Q4 14:54
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+5
99.3%
Old Dominion Penalty, off-side (Jed Olotu-Judah) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:390% → 0%
Q4 12:03
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
99.8%
Colton Joseph pass intercepted Daytione Smith return for no gain to the ODU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26TD6 plays · 22 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q4 11:21
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+5
99.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to De'Andre Tamarez for a 1ST down Old Dominion Penalty, off-side (Javen Gibson) to the ODU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 27TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q4 8:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
99.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Dawson Johnson for 11 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to TJ Lott, broken up by Boogie TrotterSimilar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+46
99.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 46 yds to the MRSH 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 28PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:27
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-9
99.9%
JacQai Long run for 1 yd to the MRSH 47 Marshall Penalty, Offensive holding (Tracy Stephens) to the MRSH 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 29TD15 plays · 80 yds · 3:520% → 3%
Q4 3:58
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+11
99.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to TJ Lott for 11 yds to the MRSH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+7
99.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ke'Travion Hargrove for 7 yds to the MRSH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+12
99.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ke'Travion Hargrove for 12 yds to the MRSH 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to TJ Johnson Marshall Penalty, off-side (Josh Pierre-Louis) to the MRSH 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:23
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 6 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
+23.1
FG · Q2 0:24
Riley Callaghan 42 yd FG GOOD
-16
TD · Q3 8:45
Antwan Roberts 26 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)
+15.4