2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreCCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:04 · Emile Sebafundi punt for 40 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 2:19: Riley Callaghan 27 yd FG GOOD — CCU win probability +0.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:54: Colton Joseph pass complete to Ke'Travion Hargrove for 80 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +4.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:05: Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 13 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +2.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:48: Riley Callaghan 34 yd FG GOOD — ODU win probability +2.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:48: Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 10 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 10:35CCU 4th & 11 at CCU 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snapGo for it11.4%−0.124% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%average punt
- Q1 10:35CCU 4th & 13 at CCU 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snapGo for it11.3%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%average punt
- Q1 9:54ODU 4th & 4 at CCU 49, up 7Close callPunted · 88.5% before the snapGo for it88.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:56CCU 4th & 2 at CCU 39, down 7Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snapGo for it12.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:19ODU 4th & 2 at CCU 9, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snapGo for it87.3%54% to convertField goalTheir call87.1%−0.289% to makePunt85.8%−1.6average punt
- Q2 13:04CCU 4th & 7 at ODU 40, down 10Close callPunted · 12.8% before the snapGo for it12.9%37% to convertField goal12.6%−0.334% to makePuntTheir call12.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 4:48ODU 4th & 10 at CCU 16, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.0%−0.327% to convertField goalTheir call95.2%81% to makePunt93.4%−1.8average punt
- Q2 3:14CCU 4th & 4 at CCU 31, down 27Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.4%average punt
- Q2 1:38CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 34, down 34Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:12ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 41, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.8%−<0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%average punt
- Q3 13:55CCU 4th & 7 at CCU 30, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q3 11:05CCU 4th & 14 at CCU 21, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 7:02ODU 4th & 4 at CCU 4, up 41Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%−<0.193% to makePunt99.1%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:28CCU 4th & 4 at ODU 47, down 44Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 1:26ODU 4th & 8 at CCU 32, up 44Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%51% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00CCU 4th & 5 at ODU 30, down 44Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%41% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.156% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:48CCU 4th & 23 at CCU 21, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.16% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:56ODU 4th & 7 at CCU 8, up 37Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%90% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:44ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.5%97% to makeGo for two88.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:54ODU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.5%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:05ODU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:48ODU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:50ODU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:20CCU Touchdown, down 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1TD10 plays · 87 yds · 3:1190% → 89%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
89.5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 16 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+49
89.5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 49 yds to the CCU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.2%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 3 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 1:0411% → 11%
Q1 11:39
2ND & 12
OWN 11
-10
89.1%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CCU 10Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 11
OWN 10
+3
89.1%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 48 yds , Devin Roche returns for 3 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 13
OWN 10
+3
89.1%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 48 yds , Devin Roche returns for 3 yds to the ODU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4189% → 89%
CCUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5811% → 12%
ODUDrive 5FG10 plays · 70 yds · 4:3789% → 88%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
88.5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 17 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
88.7%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Trequan Jones for 1 yd to the ODU 39Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+19
88.5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 19 yds to the CCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 25 yds · 4:1512% → 12%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
87.9%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Brooks Johnson for 3 yds to the CCU 38Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
87.8%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Malick Meiga for 7 yds to the CCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+1
87.2%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 1 yd to the ODU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
92.1%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ke'Travion Hargrove for 80 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8INT11 plays · 17 yds · 4:139% → 8%
Q2 12:50
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-5
91.3%
PENALTY CCU False Start (Humes,Josh) 5 yards from CCU28 to CCU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+4
91.1%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Karmello English for 4 yds to the CCU 35Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+8
91.5%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Brooks Johnson for 8 yds to the CCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
91.3%
PENALTY CCU False Start (Del Grande,Nick) 5 yards from CCU43 to CCU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+1
91.5%
Tad Hudson pass intercepted Mario Easterly return for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 14Similar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-15
91.9%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jameson Tucker) to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9TD8 plays · 71 yds · 2:3293% → 96%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
93.1%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 28 yds to the CCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
93.2%
Old Dominion Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CCU 42Similar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+8
93.1%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Maurki James for 8 yds to the CCU 34Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+21
93.2%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 21 yds to the CCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
95.8%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 13 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10FUMBLE3 plays · 3 yds · 0:235% → 5%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
95.0%
Old Dominion Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the CCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-14
94.9%
Tad Hudson sacked by Jackson Forrest for a loss of 14 yards to the CCU 28 Tad Hudson fumbled, recovered by ODU Jackson Forrest , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11FG5 plays · 12 yds · 0:5496% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12DOWNS6 plays · 3 yds · 1:342% → 1%
Q2 4:48
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
98.5%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Cameron Wright for 3 yds to the CCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13TD2 plays · 28 yds · 0:2698% → 99%
CCUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:051% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
CCUDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q3 13:55
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+18
99.2%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 54 yds , Devin Roche returns for 18 yds to the ODU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18TD5 plays · 66 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 1:451% → 0%
Q3 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hudson,Tad rush middle for 11 yards gain to the CCU37, End Of Play PENALTY CCU Holding (Elam,Zac) 10 yards from CCU26 to CCU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+5
99.4%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Jevon Edwards for 5 yds to the CCU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20FG14 plays · 54 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
Q3 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-5
99.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jones,Trequan rush middle for 27 yards gain to the CCU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY ODU Illegal Formation 5 yards from CCU27 to CCU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+4
99.5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Dawson Johnson for 4 yds to the CCU 28Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+9
99.5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 9 yds to the CCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
99.6%
Riley Callaghan 22 yd FG GOOD Coastal Carolina Penalty, Defensive Offside (Karmello English) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21DOWNS10 plays · 29 yds · 3:280% → 0%
Q3 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+18
99.7%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Eli Aragon for 18 yds to the CCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.7%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Eli Aragon for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 4
OPP 47
-9
99.8%
Tad Hudson sacked by Keshawn Thomas for a loss of 9 yards to the CCU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22MISSED FG6 plays · 12 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q3 3:28
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.8%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Ke'Travion Hargrove for 2 yds to the CCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 23TD13 plays · 68 yds · 4:060% → 0%
Q3 1:26
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+10
99.9%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Jalen John for 10 yds to the CCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+21
99.9%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Malick Meiga for 21 yds to the ODU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Simpkins,Ja'Vin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ODU08 (Forrest,Jackson; Williams Jr.,Ricardo) PENALTY ODU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ODU09 to ODU04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Cameron Wright for 3 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24FUMBLE8 plays · 41 yds · 3:30100% → 100%
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
99.9%
Quinn Henicle sacked by Ibrahim Diawara for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 34 Quinn Henicle fumbled, recovered by CCU Xamarion Gordon , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · -13 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-14
99.9%
Tad Hudson sacked by Hunter Malecki for a loss of 14 yards to the CCU 20Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 24
OWN 20
-1
100.0%
Samari Collier sacked by Ahmaad Foster for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 19Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 23
OWN 21
+3
100.0%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 48 yds , Devin Roche returns for 3 yds to the ODU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 26FG9 plays · 62 yds · 4:52100% → 100%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.9%
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 27END OF GAME4 plays · 10 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:54
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ke'Travion Hargrove for 80 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q2 6:05
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 13 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
+2.6
FG · Q2 4:48
Riley Callaghan 34 yd FG GOOD
+2.4