2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadNCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreNCCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:13 · Kaleb Robison 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:59: Trequan Jones run for 39 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +0.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:30: Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 6 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +3.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:04: Kaleb Robison 39 yd FG GOOD — NCCU win probability +1.4 pts (now 9%) (top driver: NCCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:42: Trequan Jones run for 93 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +5.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:09: Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 4 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5NCCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 9:16NCCU 4th & 2 at ODU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.1%57% to convertField goal10.0%−0.168% to makePunt9.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:21ODU 4th & 2 at NCCU 46, tiedClose callPunted · 89.5% before the snapGo for it89.5%57% to convertField goal89.3%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call89.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:04NCCU 4th & 3 at ODU 3, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.4%44% to convertField goal10.9%−0.593% to makePunt8.3%−3.0average punt
- Q2 7:58ODU 4th & 16 at ODU 40, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snapGo for it87.6%−0.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.4%average punt
- Q2 0:04NCCU 4th & 1 at ODU 22, down 16Close callKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snapGo for it9.9%71% to convertField goalTheir call9.2%−0.772% to makePunt7.3%−2.6average punt
- Q3 11:54NCCU 4th & 12 at NCCU 49, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.4%−0.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q3 10:42NCCU 4th & 11 at NCCU 15, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.625% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q3 3:06NCCU 4th & 15 at NCCU 27, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 2:24ODU 4th & 8 at NCCU 34, up 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%34% to convertField goal99.7%−<0.147% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 0:13NCCU 4th & 10 at ODU 10, down 41Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%88% to makePunt-0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 13:41ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 47, up 38Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:06NCCU 4th & 4 at NCCU 20, down 38Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:13ODU 4th & 3 at NCCU 30, up 45Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−0.156% to makePunt99.8%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 1:59ODU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.3%97% to makeGo for two90.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:30ODU Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:42ODU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:09ODU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:19ODU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:24ODU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:22ODU Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1FUMBLE6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1693% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
92.8%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 18 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
92.8%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 13 yds to the NCCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-3
92.4%
Colton Joseph run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCCU 45 Colton Joseph fumbled, recovered by NCCU Wisdom SimmsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 2DOWNS12 plays · 31 yds · 12:448% → 11%
Q1 12:44
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+4
92.2%
Walker Harris pass complete to Refeno Vangates for 4 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+9
92.2%
Walker Harris pass complete to Chance Peterson for 9 yds to the ODU 24Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
88.3%
Colton Joseph pass to Ja'Cory Thomas for 18 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
88.7%
Colton Joseph pass to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 13 yds to the NCCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5591% → 91%
Q1 9:16
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+17
91.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 17 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
91.5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Jailen Butler for 5 yds to the NCCU 49Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
91.6%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 3 yds to the NCCU 46Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
90.8%
Ian Brandt punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Darryl Taylor at the NCCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 4SF4 plays · -9 yds · 2:009% → 9%
Q1 7:21
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+7
90.9%
Walker Harris pass complete to Nasim Cosby for 7 yds to the NCCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5TD9 plays · 62 yds · 3:1791% → 91%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
90.6%
Colton Joseph pass complete to TJ Lott for 2 yds to the ODU 40 Old Dominion Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jailen Butler) to the ODU 30Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+9
90.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 9 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
90.8%
Old Dominion Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tre' Brown III) to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 25
OWN 45
+10
90.6%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 10 yds to the NCCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 6Uncategorized15 plays · 59 yds · 5:499% → 11%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
90.9%
Walker Harris pass complete to Luke Bracey for 4 yds to the NCCU 42Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
90.3%
Walker Harris sacked by Jahleel Culbreath for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
50
+18
90.4%
Walker Harris pass complete to Chris Mosley for 18 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+14
90.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Harris,Walker pass incomplete deep left to Wall,Mehki thrown to ODU02 PENALTY ODU Pass Interference (Iles,Daevon) 14 yards from ODU27 to ODU13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
89.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mosley,Chris rush left for 1 yard gain to the ODU12 (Naotala,Seth; Spencer,Christopher) PENALTY NCC Holding (Sprinkle,Ja'Quan) 10 yards from ODU13 to ODU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 21
OPP 24
+10
90.1%
Walker Harris pass complete to Chance Peterson for 10 yds to the ODU 14Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+11
90.2%
Walker Harris pass complete to Chance Peterson for 11 yds to the ODU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 37 yds · 3:0690% → 89%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
90.1%
run for 2 yds to the ODU 1 fumbled, recovered by ODU Colton JosephSimilar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 12
OWN 1
+45
90.0%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 45 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
90.6%
North Carolina Central Penalty, Defensive Offside (Makai McCall) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-8
90.3%
Colton Joseph sacked by Thomas Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the ODU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 8INT7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0210% → 11%
ODUDrive 9TD7 plays · 69 yds · 2:2690% → 94%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
89.7%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 14 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+27
90.0%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 27 yds to the NCCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+13
90.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 13 yds to the NCCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 6 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 10FG13 plays · 61 yds · 2:187% → 9%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
92.7%
Old Dominion Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (10 Yards) to the NCCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
92.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Harris,Walker rush right for 7 yards gain to the NCC48 (Culbreath,Jahleel) PENALTY NCC Holding (McMoore,A.C.) 10 yards from NCC41 to NCC31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+2
92.7%
Walker Harris pass complete to Refeno Vangates for 2 yds to the NCCU 29Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+11
92.5%
Walker Harris pass complete to Arthur Rodgers Jr. for 11 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
91.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Harris,Walker pass incomplete short right to Peterson,Chance thrown to ODU34 PENALTY ODU Pass Interference (Stiger,Nickendre) 15 yards from ODU46 to ODU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+9
92.1%
Walker Harris pass complete to Chance Peterson for 9 yds to the ODU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 2:589% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13TD1 play · 93 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:593% → 3%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
97.0%
Walker Harris pass complete to Luke Bracey for a loss of 1 yard to the NCCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15TD9 plays · 79 yds · 3:3398% → 100%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
97.6%
PENALTY NCC Personal Foul (U'Ren,Max) 15 yards from ODU42 to NCC43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
97.6%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 15 yds to the NCCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.6%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 4 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 16INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q3 6:42
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-31
99.7%
Walker Harris pass intercepted Brandon Crutchfield return for 31 yds to the NCCU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17TD3 plays · 18 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
NCCUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 2:080% → 0%
ODUDrive 19TD4 plays · 36 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
Q3 2:24
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+34
99.8%
Colton Joseph pass complete to TJ Lott for 34 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 20FG7 plays · 46 yds · 2:030% → 0%
ODUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
PENALTY NCC UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Redd,Albert) 15 yards from ODU25 to ODU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+2
99.8%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Maurki James for 2 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Ian Brandt punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mehki Wall at the NCCU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 12:06
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+22
99.9%
Brandon Bowman punt for 49 yds , Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding returns for 22 yds to the NCCU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23TD6 plays · 47 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 12:06
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.9%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Dawson Johnson for 8 yds to the NCCU 39Similar
Q4 11:02
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+15
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henicle,Quinn pass incomplete deep middle to Prince,Zay thrown to NCC00 PENALTY NCC Pass Interference (Adams,Eric) 15 yards from NCC39 to NCC24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
99.9%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Sidney Mbanasor for 10 yds to the NCCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 24FUMBLE4 plays · 14 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Joshua Jones run for 1 yd to the NCCU 49 Joshua Jones fumbled, recovered by ODU Chris ForbesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25FG5 plays · 19 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
NCCUDrive 26PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 3:230% → 0%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-14
100.0%
North Carolina Central Penalty, Block Below Waist (-14 Yards) to the NCCU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 27END OF GAME7 plays · 14 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
Q4 2:34
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+5
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henicle,Quinn pass incomplete deep left to Myers,Titus thrown to NCC28 PENALTY NCC Offside (Wynn,Ryan) 5 yards from ODU32 to ODU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:42
Trequan Jones run for 93 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q2 2:30
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 6 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q3 7:09
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 4 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
+2