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LIB

Liberty 7 at Old Dominion 21

ODU
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:43 · Ian Brandt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Reese Smith at the LIB 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Pregame prior+12.9Home team on offense+10.9Score differential+2.3Garbage-time factor+4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:34: Colton Joseph pass complete to TJ Johnson for 22 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +5.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:11: Julian Gray run for 4 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK) — LIB win probability +8.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:55: Caden Williams run for 6 yds to the LIB 40 — LIB win probability +5.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:57: Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 1 yd to the ODU 45 — ODU win probability +6.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:17: Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 55 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +7.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:56LIB 4th & 7 at ODU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:45LIB 4th & 19 at ODU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:43ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:28LIB 4th & 15 at LIB 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:19LIB 4th & 14 at LIB 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:18ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:11LIB 4th & 13 at LIB 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:43ODU 4th & 1 at LIB 44, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%−3.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:46LIB 4th & 20 at LIB 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−3.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:55ODU 4th & 5 at LIB 34, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:57LIB 4th & 2 at ODU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−4.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:09LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:09ODU 4th & 2 at LIB 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:33ODU 4th & 10 at LIB 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LIB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:34ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:01ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:11LIB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:17ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:5416% → 17%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
83.7%
Evan Dickens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 44Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+4
83.7%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Julian Gray for 4 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+10
83.7%
Evan Dickens run for 10 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
83.7%
Evan Dickens run for 1 yd to the ODU 29Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+2
83.7%
Evan Dickens run for 2 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
82.8%
Michael Merdinger pass incomplete to Reese SmithSimilar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+46
82.8%
Jay Billingsley 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2FUMBLE
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:5983% → 82%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
83.0%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 19 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
83.1%
Trequan Jones run for 8 yds to the LIB 46Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+4
83.2%
Trequan Jones run for 4 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
83.2%
Trequan Jones run for 5 yds to the LIB 37Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
83.2%
Trequan Jones run for 4 yds to the LIB 33Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+1
83.1%
Trequan Jones run for 1 yd to the LIB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
83.2%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 19 yds to the LIB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
82.4%
Trequan Jones run for 9 yds to the LIB 25 Trequan Jones fumbled, recovered by LIB Brylan GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 6:1218% → 21%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.6%
Michael Merdinger run for 6 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
81.5%
Evan Dickens run for 4 yds to the LIB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
81.6%
PENALTY LU False Start (Geth,DJ) 5 yards from LU 35 to LU 30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+8
81.7%
Ethan Houck run for 8 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
81.4%
Evan Dickens run for 5 yds to the LIB 43Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+12
81.3%
Michael Merdinger run for 12 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
81.2%
Evan Dickens run for 10 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
81.0%
Evan Dickens run for 3 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-10
81.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gray,Julian rush left for 5 yards gain to the ODU27 (Easterly,Mario; Frink,Zion) PENALTY LU Holding (Geth,DJ) 10 yards from ODU32 to ODU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 17
OPP 42
0
81.4%
Michael Merdinger pass incomplete to Darius CopelandSimilar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 17
OPP 42
-5
81.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,Caden rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ODU35 (Alisandro,Botros; Naotala,Seth) PENALTY LU Illegal Shift 5 yards from ODU42 to ODU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 22
OPP 47
+3
81.5%
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 19
OPP 44
0
79.5%
Max Morgan punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:0280% → 80%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
80.0%
Liberty Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
80.4%
Devin Roche run for 3 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
80.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 4 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
80.2%
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Tre' Brown IIISimilar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
79.6%
Ian Brandt punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:4521% → 21%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
78.9%
Evan Dickens run for 1 yd to the LIB 5Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 9
OWN 5
-2
78.7%
Evan Dickens run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 3 Evan Dickens fumbled, recovered by ODU Ricardo Williams Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4381% → 80%
Q2 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
80.7%
Colton Joseph run for no gain to the LIB 3Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
80.7%
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Ja'Cory ThomasSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
80.1%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Maurki James for 1 yd Maurki James fumbled, recovered by LIB Bryce DixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:4722% → 22%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
78.4%
Caden Williams run for 6 yds to the LIB 8Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+3
78.4%
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the LIB 11Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+2
78.4%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Darius Copeland for 2 yds to the LIB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
78.1%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Reese Smith for no gain to the LIB 13Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+3
78.1%
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the LIB 16Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 7
OWN 16
-8
78.5%
Michael Merdinger sacked by Kris Trinidad for a loss of 8 yards to the LIB 8Similar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
77.8%
Max Morgan punt for 61 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:5478% → 84%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
78.1%
Colton Joseph run for 4 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+20
78.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 20 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
79.4%
Colton Joseph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+23
79.3%
Colton Joseph run for 23 yds to the LIB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
84.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to TJ Johnson for 22 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
84.3%
PENALTY LU Offside (Harmon,Damond) 2 yards from LU 03 to LU 01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:1518% → 17%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
82.3%
Caden Williams run for 2 yds to the LIB 35Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+1
82.3%
Caden Williams run for 1 yd to the LIB 36Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-2
82.5%
Michael Merdinger run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 34Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 9
OWN 34
-5
83.2%
PENALTY LU Delay Of Game 5 yards from LU 34 to LU 29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
83.5%
Max Morgan punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Devin Roche at the ODU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:1884% → 89%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
84.1%
Trequan Jones run for 9 yds to the LIB 39Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+8
84.1%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 8 yds to the LIB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 21
OWN 11
+41
82.8%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 41 yds to the LIB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
82.9%
PENALTY ODU Personal Foul (Johnson,TJ) 11 yard from ODU22 to ODU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
89.2%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 31 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3812% → 12%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
87.7%
PENALTY LU Delay Of Game 5 yards from LU 35 to LU 30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+2
87.9%
Ethan Houck run for 2 yds to the LIB 32Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
88.0%
Ethan Houck pass intercepted Jeremy Mack Jr. return for no gain to the LIB 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12FUMBLE
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:5689% → 90%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
89.3%
Colton Joseph run for 13 yds to the LIB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
89.5%
Colton Joseph run for 18 yds to the LIB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
89.5%
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 7 yds to the LIB 5Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
89.5%
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 1 yd to the LIB 4Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+2
89.2%
Colton Joseph run for 2 yds to the LIB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
89.6%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Jailen Butler for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 3Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
89.5%
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 2 yds to the LIB 1Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
89.9%
Colton Joseph run for a loss of 7 yards to the LIB 8 Colton Joseph fumbled, recovered by LIB Dexter Ricks Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:2011% → 11%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
89.3%
M. Merdinger takes a kneeSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 12
OWN 6
-1
89.4%
M. Merdinger takes a kneeSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 5
-1
89.2%
M. Merdinger takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3789% → 89%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
89.2%
Trequan Jones run for 6 yds to the ODU 26Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
89.2%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 7 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
89.3%
Trequan Jones run for 6 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
89.7%
Trequan Jones run for 2 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-3
89.3%
Trequan Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 38Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
89.1%
Ian Brandt punt for 45 yds , Reese Smith returns for no gain to the LIB 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0711% → 10%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
89.0%
Michael Merdinger pass incomplete to Donte Lee Jr.Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
89.2%
Caden Williams run for 2 yds to the LIB 19Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 8
OWN 19
-5
89.3%
PENALTY LU False Start (Engbers,Joep) 5 yards from LU 19 to LU 14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 13
OWN 14
0
89.3%
Michael Merdinger pass incomplete to Jamari PersonSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 13
OWN 14
+12
89.7%
Max Morgan punt for 50 yds , Devin Roche returns for 12 yds to the ODU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-28
90.6%
Colton Joseph pass intercepted A'Khori Jones return for 28 yds to the LIB 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:4511% → 22%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+53
88.6%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 53 yds to the ODU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
86.9%
Caden Williams run for 4 yds to the ODU 7Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
86.9%
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the ODU 4Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
78.1%
Julian Gray run for 4 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:2083% → 84%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
82.6%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 9 yds to the ODU 18Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 1
OWN 18
-5
82.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Joseph,Colton pass incomplete short right thrown to ODU25 PENALTY ODU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Joyce,Ryan) 5 yards from ODU18 to ODU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+22
82.7%
Colton Joseph run for 22 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
83.1%
Devin Roche run for 12 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
84.5%
Colton Joseph run for 6 yds to the LIB 47Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
84.7%
Devin Roche run for 3 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
84.1%
Devin Roche run for no gain to the LIB 44Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
84.0%
Ian Brandt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Reese Smith at the LIB 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:5719% → 17%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
80.9%
Caden Williams run for 11 yds to the LIB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
80.4%
Caden Williams run for 2 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-7
80.6%
Michael Merdinger sacked by Fred Giles for a loss of 7 yards to the LIB 14Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 15
OWN 14
0
81.7%
Michael Merdinger pass incomplete to Jamari PersonSimilar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 15
OWN 14
-5
82.3%
PENALTY LU False Start (Jones,A'Khori) 5 yards from LU 14 to LU 09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 20
OWN 9
0
82.9%
Max Morgan punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20MISSED FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:5185% → 84%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
50
0
85.4%
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Tre' Brown IIISimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
50
+4
85.1%
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 4 yds to the LIB 46Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+7
84.5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 7 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
85.5%
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 5 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
85.8%
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingSimilar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
84.9%
Old Dominion Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
84.1%
Riley Callaghan 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:5821% → 19%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
79.1%
Caden Williams run for 6 yds to the LIB 40Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+7
77.5%
Caden Williams run for 7 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
77.3%
Caden Williams run for 6 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
76.2%
Julian Gray run for no gain to the ODU 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
78.3%
Michael Merdinger run for 2 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+1
81.5%
Ethan Houck run for 1 yd to the ODU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 56 yds · 0:4088% → 95%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
87.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 1 yd to the ODU 45Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+55
95.1%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 55 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:088% → 7%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.2%
Caden Williams run for 6 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
91.1%
Caden Williams run for 4 yds to the LIB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
91.4%
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-6
91.1%
Michael Merdinger sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the LIB 32Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+8
92.4%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Julian Gray for 8 yds to the LIB 40Similar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+8
92.6%
Max Morgan punt for 45 yds , Devin Roche returns for 8 yds to the ODU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24MISSED FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 5:3696% → 97%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
95.5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to TJ Johnson for no gain to the ODU 23Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+21
95.5%
Trequan Jones run for 21 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
96.0%
Colton Joseph run for 3 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
96.0%
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Ja'Cory ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+14
95.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 14 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
96.1%
Trequan Jones run for 5 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-11
96.1%
Old Dominion Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Colton Joseph) to the LIB 45Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+14
95.6%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 14 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+3
95.5%
Colton Joseph run for 3 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
96.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Joseph,Colton pass incomplete short middle to Abdul-Rahim Gladding,Na'eem thrown to LU 12, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LU Pass Interference (Bodnar,Christian) 13 yards from LU 28 to LU 15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.1%
Colton Joseph pass incomplete to Ja'Cory ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
96.1%
Maurki James run for 3 yds to the LIB 12Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-3
95.9%
Colton Joseph sacked by Eli Hall for a loss of 3 yards to the LIB 15Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
97.0%
Riley Callaghan 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:304% → 3%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
96.5%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 10 yds to the LIB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
97.0%
Caden Williams run for 13 yds to the LIB 43 Caden Williams fumbled, recovered by ODU Lucas StruckSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 24 yds · 4:0398% → 99%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
97.8%
Devin Roche run for 6 yds to the LIB 37Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
97.8%
Colton Joseph run for 3 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+5
97.8%
Trequan Jones run for 5 yds to the LIB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
97.8%
Trequan Jones run for 4 yds to the LIB 25Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
97.8%
Trequan Jones run for 3 yds to the LIB 22Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+4
98.8%
Devin Roche run for 4 yds to the LIB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
98.9%
C. Joseph takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:11
Julian Gray run for 4 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)
-8.8
TD · Q4 13:17
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 55 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
+7.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:57
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 1 yd to the ODU 45
+6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com